RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Monday, August 3rd, 2020 at 2:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/3
- WPG Jets (-106) vs. CGY Flames (-115)
- Washington Capitals (+115) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)
- Dallas Stars (+115) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-125)
- MTL Canadiens (+105) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-135)
- CHI Blackhawks (-125) vs. EDM Oilers (-105)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | GA Rank | SA Rank | GF Rank | SF Rank | Total |
| Calgary | 27 | 11 | 30 | 11 | 17 |
| Vegas | 11 | 31 | 29 | 1 | 18 |
| Winnipeg | 2 | 13 | 24 | 6 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 19 | 22 | 29 | 15 |
| Edmonton | 13 | 9 | 22 | 24 | 10 |
| Washington | 31 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 24.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 21 | 26 | 17 | 21 | 17.5 |
| Chicago | 19 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 16.75 |
| Montreal | 20 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20.25 |
| Dallas | 10 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 13.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents so for example, the Islanders GA and SA will get matched with the Panthers GF and SF.
NHL DFS Power Play Rank Matrix
| Matchups | PP % Rank | Opp PK % |
| Winnipeg | 12 | 14 |
| Calgary | 1 | 5 |
| Washington | 22 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 21 |
| Dallas | 8 | 30 |
| Vegas | 11 | 28 |
| Montreal | 31 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh | 14 | 22 |
| Chicago | 25 | 1 |
| Edmonton | 2 | 17 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
Core 4 Plays
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) Center: Leon Draisaitl ($7,300 DK/ $8,600 FD)
Draisaitl’s price dropped $500 even though he produced in the loss to Chicago on Saturday. It is hard to imagine Edmonton playing as flat as they did Saturday afternoon which is what is so enticing on going back to the well on Draisaitl and company. In four games against the Blackhawks, he has scored two goals while having eight assists in four total games so he gets the job done regardless of the team outcome. He is viable in all formats and is even more enticing now that he checks in at a cheaper price point.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Connor McDavid ($7,800/ $8,800 FD)
- Evgeni Malkin ($6,500 DK/ $8,100 FD)
- Tyler Seguin ($5,900 DK/ $7,600 FD) (Winger on FD)
- Jonathan Toews ($6,200 DK/ $6,800 FD)
2) Winger: Alex Ovechkin ($8,200 DK/ $8,700 FD)
While this is a tough matchup for Ovechkin and company, it is hard to overlook one of the greatest scorers in the game's history. Ovechkin has accumulated 15 total shots in three games against Tampa Bay this year and with Stamkos out, the Caps should be able to take advantage of a weaker Lightning lineup. He is not afraid to fire the puck at the net regardless if he scores or not which makes him viable in all formats.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Nikita Kucherov ($8,000/ $8,500 FD)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6,500/ $7,100 FD)
- Kyle Connor ($6,700/ $7,200 FD)
- Dominik Kubalik ($5,700/ $5,100 FD)
3) Defenseman: Oscar Klefbom ($5,700 DK/ $5,600 FD)
Klefbom didn’t disappoint in his game against the Blackhawks on Saturday as he produced two assists while producing 14.1 DK points. In three total games against Chicago, he is averaging 10.7 DK points per game while seeing over 23 minutes of ice-time. He is still under $6,000 on DraftKings which makes him very enticing in all formats.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- John Carlson ($6,500 DK/ $6,900 FD)
- Mark Giordano ($5,500 DK/ $5,700 FD)
- Kris Letang ($6,800 DK/ $6,800 FD)
- John Klingberg ($4,800 DK/ $5,400 FD)
4) Goalie: Cam Talbot ($8,000 DK/ $7,800 FD)
The Jets look like they have been bitten by the injury bug big time this past weekend as both Patrick Laine and Mark Scheifele suffered injuries that required them to visit specialists on Sunday. With us anticipating that they will not be playing this upcoming game, the Jets look to be in serious trouble as they lost true star power which makes the Flames chances of dominating this matchup even better. Talbot had a very solid outing stopping 17 of 18 shots and accruing a .944 save percentage.
Other Goalie Options: Matt Murray ($8,100 DK/ $8,500 FD )
Value Plays: Center
- Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5,100 DK/ $7,100 FD)
- Sean Monahan ($4,900 DK/ $6,500 FD)
- Cody Eakin ($4,400 DK/ $4,100 FD)
Value Plays: Wing
- Blake Wheeler ($5,300 DK/ $6,800 FD)
- Alexander Radulov ($4,200 DK/ $5,300 FD)
- Dennis Gurianov ($3,400 DK/ $3,900 FD)
Value Plays: Defensemen
- Miro Heiskanen ($4,200 DK/ $4,600 FD)
- Justin Schultz ($3,600 DK/ $4,200 FD)
Value Plays: Goalie
- Braden Holtby ($7,600 DK/ $8,600 FD)
- Ben Bishop ($7,400 DK/ $8,600 FD)
Top Team and Line Stacks
Edmonton Oilers (L1, L2, PP1)
The Oilers scored four goals in a loss to Chicago on Saturday and they should look like a more complete team come Monday night. Starting Mike Smith between the pipes was a mistake and once Koskinen came into the game, the team played with much more confidence. This should be another high-event game with plenty of chances for both teams as both squads are viable in a DFS format with a slight edge going to the Oilers for a bounceback spot.
Washington Capitals (L1, PP1, L2)
The Caps dominated the Lightning in the regular season as they won all three meetings and averaged four goals per game. The Lightning look to be without Stamkos in the matchup on Monday which hurts the Lightning on both the offensive and defensive end so this seems to be a prime spot to take advantage of Ovechkin and company.
Pittsburgh Penguins (L2, L1, PP1, L3)
The Pens got off to a slow start on Saturday night as they got down 2-0 quickly against the Canadiens but finally woke up to tie it in the second period. The game remained tight until Montreal won it in overtime but now the Penguins have their backs against the wall heading into their game Monday night. With it being a best of five series, the Penguins will need to come out firing against a strong “statistical” team in Montreal. This looks to be a big bounce-back spot for a Penguins squad that won the corsi battle and generated more high-danger opportunities than Montreal in the first game.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: Chicago Blackhawks (L1. PP1), Dallas Stars (L1,L2) , Calgary Flames (L1,L2)
