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Chris Wassel's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for December 4th, including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
The NHL season approaches the end of week number eight as well as the start of December! Some fun twists are definitely to come as trends are establishing themselves. As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, December 4th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/4
We feature a nine game main slate, headlined by Tampa Bay, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Boston, and yes Toronto versus Minnesota. The lock is at 7:00 which means the afternoon tilt between St. Louis and Florida is on their own.
There is some news worth mentioning. Watch out for injuries and sadly much illness (not all COVID-related). Finally, goaltending confirmations and further injury news will be scrutinized heavily on social media. Oh, and still watch for any COVID craziness.
The goal will be to keep things as simple as possible. Our focus will be as much on interactions on social media and in chatrooms. This is because news and numbers have become that fluid now. Everything changes at a breakneck pace.
NHL DFS Goalies
Ilya Sorokin - DK $7.7K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
The question is this. When do the New York Islanders snap their losing streak? They have been outscored 34-8 during this nine-game tailspin. Now, Ilya Sorokin has been one of the few bright spots in this time. Some tried to argue his numbers last year were a bit fluky. Those have improved this year. He has a .911 save percentage on the penalty kill, an .867 save percentage on high-danger scoring chances, etc. Eventually the offense has to break out even a bit for New York. The Islanders have faced nearly double the chances at that. This works out great for DFS owners as the volume helps point potential. A win is almost a bonus here.
Juuse Saros - DK $8.2K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
There is a good deal of risk here on Saturday anytime the Nashville Predators play at home. The Montreal Canadiens allow the fourth-most points to goaltenders in DFS. Saros was pulled out of mercy the last time the two teams met in Montreal. That did not sit well with Saros or Nashville for that matter. Nashville is slumping a little bit as this could be a buy-low option especially on FanDuel. Saros stopped 31 of 33 shots at home against Boston on Thursday night but got no goal support which does seem to happen too often. Again, there is some risk here. See who starts for Montreal (Jake Allen facing a high shot load is intriguing).
Please watch for late-breaking goaltender confirmations during the early evening. This will allow you to be ready to make pivots as needed.
NHL DFS Centers
Anthony Cirelli - DK $4.5K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Boston Bruins
So many teams are relentless. Depth and injuries are constantly revolving. Anthony Cirelli has five goals and six points in his last nine games. This is while averaging around three shots a game and three scoring chances a contest as well. It does not matter if Cirelli is labeled on the top or second line. He played over 20 minutes in four straight games. That is a top-line player. Tampa Bay entertains a Boston team who needed an incredible 42-save performance to beat Nashville on Thursday. Boston will give up shots and Cirelli could figure prominently into this. At the least, he still carries value for now, of course.
Ryan Hartman - DK $6.5K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
Centers tend to do pretty well in this spot lately. The secret is out! Ryan Hartman's salary has gone up into the $6K bracket which means more and more media exposure from writers like everyone else. Here we have pointed out Hartman's proclivity to higher outputs per 60. That has now blossomed with Kirill Kaprizov as a linemate. It is clear the two work well together and though Toronto has won seven straight games on the road, the Wild are in slightly better position as the home team. That is the theory here. Hartman has 39 shots on goal in his last ten games with six goals. He is quite the threat here and arguably still undervalued on this slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Crosby (DK $7.4K || FD $7.7K) -- Watch for Evan Rodrigues, Larkin (DK $6.2K || FD $6.9K). Kadri (DK $7.3K || FD $8.5K), Mittelstadt (DK $4.0K || FD $4,3K). The key is to watch pricing discrepancies now. There are going to be some crazy options that open up once goalies are confirmed. Keep that in mind on Saturday evening.
NHL DFS Wings
Alex Ovechkin- DK $9.6K || FD $9.9K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There are so many ideas here and Alex Ovechkin's salary is the highest on the slate. Simply, who cares! Lots of options exist to pair with the Russian winger. Ovechkin has 38 points in 24 games with 19 goals. He leads the league with 102 shots. Columbus allows a league-leading 34.52 shots per game (36+ over the last ten games). The biggest thing with the forward is the very fact that the forward faces a Columbus team that allows more than 3.2 goals per game. That number is rising especially on the road where the Blue Jackets bleed goals and scoring chances. Spend the money and take one's chances. Worse comes to worse, stack with defensive options like Dmitry Orlov, forward choices like Tom Wilson, etc.
Lucas Raymond - DK $5.2K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - New York Islanders
This is one that could once again be somewhat intriguing. Honestly, Lucas Raymond should get more opportunities than expected against the New York Islanders. New York is facing nearly double the high-danger scoring chances when Ilya Sorokin is in goal. During the nine-game losing streak for the Islanders, they have allowed 34 goals in that span. While Sorokin has been quite good, a player like Lucas Raymond has 22 points in 24 games with ten goals. He has three goals in his last four games. The risk is his low to moderate output with shots on goal and scoring chances. Typically, Raymond makes those opportunities more often than not.
Jake Guentzel - DK $7.5K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
There are lots of possibilities and even Jake Guentzel will be going up against a defensively deficient Vancouver Canucks team. The problem is that Pittsburgh has been guilty of a lack of offense. They try to avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season on Saturday. Guentzel keeps rolling averaging five shots on goal a game in his last ten contests and seven goals (11 points) in this span. That includes 50+ scoring chances and four points on the man advantage. When going against a team that has a penalty kill that is the worst in the league (64.5%), Guentzel should have plenty of chances. If there was a game to get Pittsburgh's power play in gear, this would be it. Vancouver allows too many chances. Period.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $7.8K || FD $8.1K), Nichushkin (DK $3.7K || FD $5.9K), Nylander (DK $6.7K || FD $8.2K), DeBrincat (DK $5.8K || FD $7.6K), Batherson (DK $4.5K || FD $6.4K). Again, the key is just to keep perusing for values particularly with the later games. Most may key in on Colorado and Ottawa and perhaps attempt a game stack of sorts. Also, again watch out for last minute line shifts as teams try to hedge their lines and occasionally stack around their choices. It will be curious to see how certain teams look as they recover from COVID, etc.
NHL DFS Defensemen
Cale Makar - DK $8.1K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
While the weekend is here, Cale Makar keeps on scoring again with eight goals in his last nine games. Overall, the blueliner keeps on scoring with a whopping 15 points in that span. Makar can hit bonuses at any time and has averaged 3.3 shots per game and 1.5 blocked shots per contest over the past ten starts. The Colorado defenseman has options to stack around him and look Ottawa is going to allow their chances. He can rush up the ice like few defensemen out there, period! This slate expects to be a good bit of fun but it is okay to keep it simple too. Adam Fox and Seth Jones could be good options against each other on Saturday. This is because two of the worst five teams when it comes to scoring chances face each other.
Jacob Trouba - DK $5.7K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
This is a risky proposition at best. Just take the damn risk again! New York only scored one goal against San Jose on Friday night. However, that will not happen on Saturday against Chicago, also at home. There is no rest and Igor Shesterkin will be rested in place of Alexandar Georgiev. Trouba's salary is still reasonable enough. That may not last much longer. He does have four goals and seven points in his previous nine games. There are several counter moves at or below this tier including Devon Toews and even Noah Dobson, a buy-low candidate from the New York Islanders.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $7.5K || FD $7.0K), Letang (DK $7.1K || FD $6.4K), Slavin (DK $5.1K || FD $4.5K), Cernak (DK $3.2K || FD $4,0K). There are quite a few value options on Saturday but with late player news, it will be wise to wait and see which pairings these players may reside on.
TOP Power Play Lines/Stacks for Saturday
- WSH 1 (Ovechkin against Columbus)
- CAR 1
- MIN 1 (Kaprizov and Hartman)
- NYR 1 (when the goals could be plentiful)
- NYI 2 (Breakout eventually, right?)
- BUF 1
- COL 2 (Kadri and Nichushkin plus Burakovsky)
- NSH 1 (Forsberg time)
- CHI 1 (With Jones or Murphy as defensive options)
Chris’s Line Stacks of the Day
PIT: Crosby-Guentzel-Letang
To The Moon Game Stack
Nashville and Montreal
Less Obvious Stack
NYI: Pageau-Parise-Palmieri (Dobson as value defensive add-on)
Please keep in mind that there will be many shifts in lines with most teams especially early. Between COVID, some late injuries, and all sorts of load and travel management, it will be another chaotic Saturday evening. That is what makes it fun.
Oh and don't worry, we will have plenty more on Slack, social media, and yes MORE! Good luck out there.
NHL Player News and Updates
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
