RADIO
Week 3 of the NFL season is here. We’re still figuring some teams out, and as crazy as it seems, there are a lot of must-win games for teams this week. One prime example is the Cincinnati Bengals. After two close losses, they’re in danger of falling to 0-3 in a highly competitive division. Regardless of the outcomes of games, there are definitely some player props we can look to attack.
In Week 2, we bounced back from a tough Week 1, and, if it weren’t for Derek Carr freezing out Davante Adams, we would have swept the week. We went 4-1, and the only win that was close was the Aaron Rodgers under on his passing yards. On the year, we’re now 6-4 and up 1.3 units overall assuming you’re betting one unit on each play. As the year goes on and we get more data to work with, we’ll be able to find more and more edges to play.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
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O0.5 Interceptions
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is coming off of his best game as a pro with 469 yards through the air and six touchdowns, which is tied for the second-most in a game all-time with 31 other QBs. However, he still threw two interceptions in the first half of that game, and he has struggled with interceptions in general throughout his career. This Buffalo Bills defense has been opportunistic early in the season, and they can take advantage of mistakes that Tua gives them.
In three career games against the Bills, Tua has thrown for one touchdown and four interceptions in three losses, although he was knocked out of their first matchup early last season. The Bills are tied for the league lead with five interceptions and only one passing touchdown allowed in two games. Safety Jordan Poyer (foot), who has two picks this season, is questionable with an injury, but the rest of the roster is talented enough to get away with a takeaway in this one.
O71.5 Receiving yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Through two weeks, Philadelphia Eagles wideout A.J. Brown is averaging 7.5 receptions for 112 yards on 10.5 targets per game. Those are pretty good numbers for the new Eagle, and he’s done so despite his team being up by significant margins in both games. In last week’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, the Eagles threw their last pass at the 7:36 mark in the fourth quarter, and Brown saw his last target with just under 14 minutes of game time remaining.
Through two weeks, the Washington Commanders are allowing opposing wideouts to average 12 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 116.5 receiving yards. While the Eagles can run the ball better than the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars, quarterback Jalen Hurts is still peppering Brown with a lot of targets. As long as this game doesn’t become a huge blowout, which it shouldn’t with how explosive Washington has been, Brown should be able to reach this number.
O41.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson has been a confusing piece to figure out through two weeks compared to last season. Early in the 2021 season, the Falcons were using him a lot in the receiving game, but that has flipped early in the 2022 season. Through two weeks, he has three catches on six targets for 16 yards. For reference, in four of the first five games last year, he had five or more catches for 58 or more yards in each of those four games. This year, it’s clear that, as long as the team is not heavily trailing, they want him in the game and running the ball.
Patterson had 41 yards in the Week 2 loss that required a furious comeback, but in Week 1, when the team led for much of the game, he had 22 carries for 120 yards. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing backs, and they’ve allowed four different ball carriers to go over this mark. The Seattle offense doesn’t run up high scores or at a high pace, so this should stay close long enough for Patterson to get the job done.
Brandin Cooks
O60.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks remains the straw that stirs the drink of this Houston passing attack. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards through two weeks, and he’s averaging 68 yards per game thus far. Head coach Lovie Smith made some comments about the team needing to run the ball more, but this Chicago Bears defense isn’t the easiest to run on. Their corners are susceptible though, and Cooks can take advantage of them.
Despite giving up the eighth-fewest receptions to opposing wideouts, the Bears have given up the 15th-most yards. They’ve also played in a torrential downpour where no one could get any footing and against a Green Bay Packers team that was leading for much of the game and chose to run the ball relentlessly. Houston may want to run the ball more, but they won’t be nearly as effective at it. Cooks can get there this week.
Joe Flacco
O35.5 Passing Attempts
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
This just seems like a full-on trap if I’m being honest with you. Through two weeks, New York Jets quarterback Joe Flacco has 59 and 44 passing attempts. A major reason for the high volume of passing attempts has been the fact that the team has been behind in both games. Of the 146 plays run by the offense this season, the Jets have been leading for just one play which was the kneel down to seal last week’s victory. The team’s running backs are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, and Flacco is still chucking the ball constantly.
The Cincinnati Bengals desperately need a win heading into Week 3. They’re 0-2 after losing in back-to-back weeks on field goals as time expired in overtime and regulation respectively. Their defense is holding up against the run, as they’ve allowed just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Their offense, specifically up front, has struggled to protect quarterback Joe Burrow, and they need a win, which will likely come on the back of Burrow and his talented wideouts along with a healthy dose of running back Joe Mixon. If Cincy can get an early lead, Flacco and the Jets will be forced to drop back and chuck it.
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