NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Dolphins vs. Bills Thursday Night Showdown

September 18, 2025

Koby's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Dolphins vs. Bills TNF slate for Week 3 Thursday Night Football (Sept. 18, 2025). His NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We had a good Monday night set of games, and now we move on to Week 3. As a Dolphins fan, this game is always hell for us, and this season hasn't started too hot. The Bills have dominated the series to a 9-1 W/L across their last 10 outings. Will they make it 10 out of 11, or will the Dolphins finally wake up?

Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.

I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday Night Football in Week 3 -- Dolphins vs. Bills on September 18th, 2025. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @DFSKoby, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat with me and other NFL analysts any time!

MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Josh Allen - QB, $18.6K (DK), $21.3K (FD)

Josh Allen has dominated the Dolphins in his career, and like Tom Brady, this trend is likely to continue throughout his career. He has thrown for more than 300 yards in five of his last 10 meetings with the Dolphins, and has also thrown for two or more touchdowns in nine of his previous 10. The Dolphins have been hurt by rushing QBs already this season. Daniel Jones rushed in two in Week 1 against the Dolphins. If he can do that, imagine what Allen will do to this defense.

He was pretty much game-scripted out of Week 2's win, where they destroyed the Jets into oblivion. At one point, they were up 30-3. I don't expect a 41 fantasy point performance like he did in Week 1, but I do expect the Dolphins to keep this closer than the Jets did. It will still likely be majorly in favor of the Bills, but I don't think it will get to the point that Allen doesn't score 20+ fantasy points in this one.

De'Von Achane- RB, $16.2K (DK), $18.3K (FD)

Achane has been the lone bright spot of this Dolphins offense. He is actually getting a good matchup here, though. The Bills have been a bit rough in run defense; they have given up the most YPC this season at 6.8. The Dolphins have been fourth in the league in yards per carry at 5.2. This bodes extremely well for Achane, who has been able to get it done in the running and receiving game.

The Dolphins are 4th in the NFL with 5.2 yards per rush
The Bills are 32nd in the NFL allowing 6.8 yards per rush pic.twitter.com/9OlEGpJDnF

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) September 16, 2025

Achane has 197 total yards in two games this season, while having a receiving touchdown in both games. Had he not stepped out of bounds last week against the Patriots, he would have added another. Even if this game begins to blow out, Achane's ability to be present in the passing game is massive for him to stay involved. This makes him one of the top options on this slate at the MVP spot.

Other Captains/MVPs: Tua Tagovailoa, James Cook

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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

James Cook - RB, $10.6K (DK), $11.6K (FD)

James Cook has been a massive focal point in this Bills offense, and it has worked out quite well for them. He has 18.7 and 29 fantasy points in his first two games. He has rushed in three touchdowns already and was extremely active in the passing game in Week 1, which was a much closer game. Cook still managed to get 132 yards on the ground with two touchdowns before being game-scripted out as more carries were given to Ray Davis toward the end.

James Cook makes a beautiful juke en route to a 44-yard TD!

BUFvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/6x8MD8hxGa

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

The Dolphins have allowed the third-most receiving yards to RBs so far this season, and Cook will likely continue to be productive in both parts of the offense. We have seen Rhamondre Stevenson and Jonathan Taylor do well against the Dolphins defense; this should make for an elite opportunity for Cook to well ... cook.

Jaylen Waddle - WR, $8.8K (DK), $8.6K (FD)

At the moment, Jaylen Waddle is questionable to play, but I just don't see him not playing in this one. He was questionable last week with the same injury, but still came out and got 15 fantasy points in Week 2. The focus continues to be on Tyreek Hill, but that should give Waddle the chance to make plays against a secondary that gave up almost 200 receiving yards to the Ravens in Week 1.

Waddles earns himself a solid matchup against Tre'Davious White, who will likely line up against him on both the left and right sides. White is giving up .31 fantasy points per route run this season and was cooked by Zay Flowers in Week 1.

The Bills likely lead in this one, which gives Tua and company more reason to throw the ball. As long as this doesn't get too far out of hand, Waddle should be able to finish with a solid stat line.

Other Flex Options: Tyreek Hill, Keon Coleman

Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Riley Patterson - K, $4.4K (DK), $6.2K (FD)

The Dolphins have had issues in enemy territory this season. That being said, they have a solid kicker in Riley Patterson, who should continue to fill in for the injured Jason Sanders. They have reverted him to the practice squad, but the Dolphins still need a kicker. As of right now, he is 2-for-2 on the season. He has been in and out of the league, but he does have an 85% success rate in his career.

If the Dolphins can get him at least into the sub-40 range, he should be good for a few field goals in this one. There is a chance these could be the only points the Dolphins see, so he is worth an add in a large Bills stack with a one-off Dolphin lineup.

Joshua Palmer - WR, $4.8K (DK), $5.4K (FD)

Joshua Palmer may be the WR3 in the Bills offense, but that hasn't stopped him from keeping up with the likes of Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.

We are getting a really good price on Palmer; he is likely the cheapest I would go on this slate, unless there is an unsuspecting injury that pops up from someone else. In Week 1, Palmer was targeted nine times and went for 61 yards. Week 2, like I have said multiple times, he was game-scripted out, but he still caught two passes for 47 yards.

Palmer likely lines up against Rasul Douglas, the former Bills cornerback. So far this season, Douglas has given up .27 fantasy points per route run. Palmer has lined up mostly on the right side, but if he gets a chance against Jack Jones on the left, he could be in for a big night.

Other Value Options: Buffalo Bills D/ST, Dalton Kincaid, Malik Washington

Sample NFL DFS Lineup

Here is a lineup option I like for tonight's slate on FanDuel. Note that sample lineups are not intended to be used in contests by readers, but instead to show the type of roster construction that I am considering when building my lineups tonight.

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks