Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Week 5 Player Props and Parlays (2026)

October 11, 2026

Expert NFL betting picks for Monday 10/12/26. Player props, same game parlays, and game picks for Monday Night Football game between the Bills and Rams.

Hello everybody, and welcome to the Week 5 edition of Monday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season is entering the second weekend in October, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content on the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.

This weekly article will focus on the Monday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically provide at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props, and a fun single-game parlay.

This week's Monday night slate features a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in sunny Los Angeles. This matchup should provide plenty of goodies for us to try to take advantage of. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 5 of Monday Night Football!

Monday Night Football Odds and Spread

Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-180 ML)

Over/Under (54.5)

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Monday Night Football Game Picks

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

We have what should be a tremendous matchup between two Super Bowl contenders when the Bills travel west to take on the Rams on Monday Night Football. The Bills will enter this matchup at 3-1, coming off their first loss of the season to the New England Patriots, while the Rams are 2-2, coming off a road victory against the Philadelphia Eagles last week.

The Bills' offense has been extremely potent, averaging nearly 32 points per game, which ranks best in the league. They are also averaging 139 rushing yards per game and nearly 260 passing yards per game, which rank fifth-best and ninth-best in the league, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Rams defense has been their strong suit, allowing an average of just 154 passing yards per game and 102 rushing yards per game, which rank first and 11th-best, respectively. The Rams also have a potent offense, however, as they are currently averaging over 300 passing yards per game and nearly 127 rushing yards per game.

While the Rams' overall numbers look solid on defense, it is worth pointing out that they allowed 27 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, 30 points to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, and just last week, they allowed 20 points to a struggling Philadelphia Eagles offense.

The Bills have also struggled quite a bit defensively, allowing nearly 27 points per game thus far in 2026. This game sets up nicely for scoring, given how strong each offense has been. I think Stafford and the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air, and this Bills offense should be potent enough to keep up.

For these reasons, I am looking at the over here despite the total currently being set to 54.5. We should see plenty of points in this one.

The Pick: OVER  (54.5 -118), 50% (NOVIG)

Monday Night Football Player Props

Matthew Stafford OVER 278.5 passing yards (-113), 53% (NOVIG)

I would not normally be recommending a passing prop set this high, but we have a few things working in favor of a big game incoming from Stafford here. First is Stafford himself, who has thrown for 300 or more passing yards in three straight games, averaging nearly 345 passing yards per game over this span.

Second is this Bills defense, which has actually been relatively strong against running backs, but abysmal against the pass. They are allowing just 3.75 yards per carry to running backs, which could make things tough for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to rack up rushing yards.

The Bills, however, rank sixth-worst in the league by allowing an average of 274 passing yards per game to the quarterback position. Given the high total in this game as well, this sets up for a spot where Stafford and the Rams likely come out looking to move the ball through the air, and given that the Bills have a capable offense to keep pace, Stafford could definitely throw for over this total.

Matthew Stafford with a strike to Davante Adams for the TD 🎯

@NYGvsLAR on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/zFXrkI6gkg

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2026

Josh Allen OVER 37.5 rushing yards (-114), 50% (NOVIG)

The Rams defense has been strong against the pass, allowing just 154 yards per game, so I am not going to jump on the Josh Allen passing prop just yet, but I do think he has a solid shot to use his legs and find success in this one. Thus far in 2026, Allen has rushed for more than this total just once; however, there are a few reasons to believe he will do it again.

First is the game total. Allen typically rushes more in games that are higher scoring. In Week 2 against the Lions, Allen ran for 69 yards on 14 carries in a game that ended with the Bills victorious 41-31. In 2025, Allen rushed an average of 8.5 times for 44 rushing yards in games with 50 or more points scored compared to just 5.5 times for 31 yards in games with fewer than 50 points scored.

This feels like a spot where Allen will need to use his legs in order to generate some offense.

Josh Allen takes it in himself for the TD 💪

BUFvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+ https://t.co/ihfkBNmfeS

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026

Davante Adams OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-110), 53% (NOVIG)

The trendy play here will probably be to play Puka Nacua over his receiving prop, which is sitting in the 90s, but I am going to look at Adams in this spot. Even with Nacua back in the lineup last week, Adams still saw nine targets. While he only hauled in four receptions for 32 receiving yards, the targets were still there.

The Bills have been brutal against wide receivers this season as well. Overall, they have allowed wide receivers to haul in over 13 receptions for 186 receiving yards per game, which rank seventh-worst and fifth-worst, respectively.

The Bills secondary is also banged up, with cornerbacks Christian Benford and Dee Alford both listed on the injury report, with the latter having yet to practice in any capacity.

That's 2️⃣ TDs for Davante Adams!

@NYGvsLAR on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/zPN3uQB2Hb

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2026

Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay

This is a new section of the article compared to seasons past, where we will build a fun same-game parlay for you all to consider. As these are parlays, it is always recommended to scale down and make these bets a little more conservatively, as we will need multiple legs to go right in order to hit. The legs I like tonight include:

• Game total over 48.5
• Bills +9.5
• Kyren Williams ANYTIME touchdown
• Total odds: +212

I am going to try and be somewhat conservative with tonight's same-game parlay, as we have been struggling to hit these recently. We are essentially teasing the total and spread here with a standard six-point teaser, and then adding in a Williams anytime touchdown.

The case for the total is made above, and while I think the Bills could actually come out and win this one, I am choosing to be a bit safe with the teased spread. They should have enough offense to stay in this game with an opportunity to win it late.

As far as Kyren is concerned, he has scored four total touchdowns this season and has scored in three of the Rams' first four games. The Bills have also allowed touchdown production to running backs this season, allowing an average of 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game and 0.75 receiving touchdowns per game. Overall, this equals six total touchdowns to running backs across four games.

Kyren Williams POWERS IT IN FOR THE LEAD!!

@LARvsPHI on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/LW85llHviL

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

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