Fantasy Basketball Sleepers, Buy/Sell: Rotation Watch and Minute Trends for Week 1

Jakes' fantasy basketball sleepers and buys/sells for Week 1 (2024-2024). He monitors trending minute distribution to find fantasy basketball risers, fallers.

Welcome to RotoBaller’s debut Rotation Watch for the 2024-2025 NBA season. This is a bi-monthly article that focuses on each team’s current and trending minute distribution.

Week 1 is a grace period for nearly every NBA team. Seeing how most teams will try NOT to throw away their initial game plan within the first 10 games, minutes are likely to stay somewhat consistent barring any injuries or major events.

Every player has a value and the most important component of determining that value is the player getting on the court. Not only will we signal minute increases and decreases throughout the season, but we will also offer insight on whether to buy into short-term hype or to sell before a fall. Every team will experience rough patches throughout the season, but this article aims to minimize that damage by keeping you updated on the breakdown of each team’s minute distribution, starting alphabetically.

Atlanta Hawks

Buy: Dyson Daniels, Vίt Krejčí, Onyeka Okongwu, David Roddy

Sell: De’Andre Hunter

Dyson Daniels had a great showing at the Olympics and Vίt Krejčí proved he can act as a reserve playmaker off the bench. Now that Onyeka Okongwu is firmly in the starting lineup, his production should ramp up significantly and the only real sell here is De’Andre Hunter. His minutes are going to depend solely on his shot-making each night, but the Hawks should have no problems allowing him some leeway because of his defense. That being said, Hunter still offers the least total value of all the starters, unless he’s hitting shots and we all know how rare that can be.

Boston Celtics

Buy: Al Horford

Sell: Payton Pritchard

Hard to doubt anyone on a championship-winning team and until Kristaps Porzingis is back, Al Horford is going to dominate the box score in ways only Al Horford can, but Payton Pritchard is a hard sell. Until his jump shot starts hitting at a rate that draws the defenses away from passing lanes, he’ll be fighting an uphill battle for minutes. Unfortunately, back-end production doesn’t come easy in the very well-fed and well-rounded Celtics offense.

Brooklyn Nets

Buy: Dennis Schröder, Nic Claxton

Sell: Ben Simmons

The Nets are in rough shape already, but they have the talent to put up serious numbers in their own right. Dennis Schröder is a viable point guard with a knack for generating offense although the weapons at his disposal aren’t exactly efficient.

He will still have Nicolas Claxton as a lob threat and both Cam Thomas and Cam Johnson have shown they can be more than capable scorers on any given night, Cam Thomas more so than Cam Johnson. Even then, that’s not a great arsenal to be working with. Toss Ben Simmons in and it’s looking more like Schröder and Thomas are the only real scorers in the starting lineup.

Charlotte Hornets

Buy: Brandon Miller, Seth Curry

Sell: Nick Richards

Brandon Miller will continue to thrive in this offense and Seth Curry is going to see more than his fair share of shots whenever he lines up with LaMelo Ball. Even off the bench, no team can pass up quality shooting and the Hornets are no different. However, they still have a massive hole at center and this wouldn’t be the first time Nick Richards was granted a full workload and struggled to produce.

Chicago Bulls

Buy: Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Zach LaVine

Sell: Nikola Vucevic

The Bulls offense has firepower, but only Coby White and Zach LaVine have the shot-making ability to fuel an offense on a nightly basis. Both are lined up to be a one-two punch in the backcourt, but the lack of spacing will make things tough for them night in and night out. Nikola Vucevic still has the touch to compete, but his versatility as a defender has fallen off severely. That’s going to leave Chicago with the paint wide open and in turn force the offense to scramble to keep up, not a great strategy with limited shooters.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Buy: Dean Wade, Caris LeVert

Sell: None

Without Max Strus, the Cavaliers aren’t in dire need of a shooting guard, but it opens up some of their offense to accommodate players like Dean Wade. Strus spaced the floor and he only came to be that type of player by shooting through his slumps and contributing in other ways when he couldn’t hit his shots. Wade has shown prowess on the defensive end and is a true stretch on offense. Add in some relief from Caris LeVert coming off the bench and both Wade and LeVert should have their work cut out for them.

Dallas Mavericks

Buy: P.J. Washington

Sell: Daniel Gafford

This is Luka Doncic’s team first and foremost, so everything starts with him. Kyrie Irving is a great catalyst that can help offset a defense adjusted for Doncic, but the real X-factors are going to be the surrounding shooters, Klay Thompson and more importantly P.J. Washington. Washington has the athleticism to be a menace defensively and boasts a quality track record of high-scoring games. The more he becomes comfortable in this offense, the more frequently we are going to see those types of games from him. As for Daniel Gafford, unless he’s starting he’s impossible to trust.

Denver Nuggets

Buy: Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun

Sell: Russell Westbrook

It’s great to see Russell Westbrook in a winning environment. Sadly, it may come at the cost of his statistical output. Normally, a triple-double threat, Westbrook has tamed down drastically and his only real value relies on assists and points.

To make things worse, unless he pulling down double-digit rebounds or posting more than five assists nightly, it’s likely his efficiency won’t make him valuable in fantasy formats. As for Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun, more playing time for Braun will never be a bad thing in terms of development and Porter Jr. has already established himself as one of the better three-point shooters in the league.

Detroit Pistons

Buy: Cade Cunningham, Simone Fontecchio

Sell: Jalen Duren

The Pistons have added talent around Cade Cunningham and that is directly going to feed his assist and point production. Despite the Pistons, literally, being one of the worst team’s in NBA history last season, Cunningham still played incredibly well for his circumstances.

That will only get better with added spacing and newcomers like Simone Fontecchio still have a lot of room for improvement. The Pistons went from zero shooters to some shooters, and Cunningham is already skilled at working with limited resources. Sadly, as long as the Pistons have to rely on Jalen Duren for defense, Detroit might be in for another long, losing season.

Golden State Warriors

Buy: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga

Sell: Andrew Wiggins

The Warriors' offense made Kevon Looney valuable so that says enough in itself. With Trayce Jackson-Davis, he just needs to put forth the bare minimum effort and he’ll be posting double-doubles in no time if not in his debut start. Jonathan Kuminga is also likely to assume a larger role within the offense, specifically building off last season’s improvements.

Houston Rockets

Buy: Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.

Sell: Jalen Green

It usually takes a few seasons for big men to get acclimated to the speed of the NBA, but both Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. have made tremendous strides in just two years. Sengun is one of the savviest stretch playmakers in the league and Smith Jr. has become a force inside the paint. Every game is going to be a stepping stone and these improvements are likely going to pull directly from Jalen Green’s usage.

Indiana Pacers

Buy: Andrew Nembhard. Aaron Nesmith

Sell: Myles Turner

The peripheral Pacers are geared up to have a massive year after an extremely notable postseason. Both Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard had flashes of greatness and their postseason success was a culmination of a strong season put forth by both guards. With Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam becoming more comfortable every day, we’re likely to see that duo create space for players that can score at every level like Nesmith and Nembhard. As for Myles Turner, he likely continues to slide down the path most aging bigs take when their bodies start to fail them. He’s still talented, it’s just the age bug.

Los Angeles Clippers

Buy: James Harden, Norman Powell

Sell: Terance Mann

With so few options, it’s hard to really want to sell anyone on this team. But if any Clippers were ready to sacrifice for the greater good of the team, it’s Terance Mann. He will still have good games here and there, but this Clippers team needs scoring and both James Harden and Norman Powell will have no problems assuming that role. Until there is a clear-cut third option on this team, it’s going to be the James Harden and Norman Powell show with bits of Ivica Zubac mixed in.

Los Angeles Lakers

Buy: Austin Reaves

Sell: LeBron James

Selling on LeBron James’ player stock needs to come with a grain of salt. Yes, he’ll have his games, but they will be much fewer and far between. Anthony Davis has the tools to have the offense run through him, but LeBron's facilitating makes the game easier for everyone. James is going to continue deferring to Davis whenever he can, but don’t be surprised when he is forced into production at random times. With James getting older, younger players like Austin Reaves are picking up the pieces and excelling in their roles.

Memphis Grizzlies

Buy: Ja Morant, Zach Edey

Sell: Marcus Smart

Ja Morant is back and with him, he has one of the top rookie centers at his disposal. Not only will Zach Edey get the chance to play with a superstar in Morant, but Morant is going to force-feed Edey at the rim. Both offer a strong presence at the rim and it’ll be hard for undermanned teams to stop both in tandem. The Grizzlies have improved and although Marcus Smart might not be looking at a strong statistical season, he’ll be a pivotal player nonetheless.

Miami Heat

Buy: Bam Adebayo

Sell: Terry Rozier

It didn’t take Terry Rozier long to get adjusted to how the Heat play, but in terms of production there’s a lot left on the table. Rozier thrives in high-usage situations and the Heat don’t want to play that style of basketball. Until he carves out his own role in the offense, Rozier will be second, maybe even third or fourth fiddle to Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo. These three create the core and Rozier is going to be stuck on the outside looking in most nights.

Milwaukee Bucks

Buy: Gary Trent

Sell: Taurean Prince

Surround Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokoumpo with shooters and you are cooking with fire. Gary Trent has a quick trigger and the athleticism to create on his own, making him the ideal secondary piece within the Bucks offense. As for Taurean Prince, we know he’s all defense so realistically this role fits him just as well, it’s just going to be unlikely for him to be deserving of shots when Trent, Lillard, Antetkounmpo, and Brook Lopez are on the court.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Buy: Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels

Sell: Julius Randle

Rudy Gobert is always going to get his points and boards on a nightly basis, but Jaden McDaniels might be a surprise as a defense-first wing. Even if he does take some of the tougher assignments, that hasn’t deterred him from being productive on both ends of the court. Despite his skill, he can hit shots and defend, making him invaluable to a team looking to advance further into the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans

Buy: Herb Jones

Sell: C.J. McCollum

Herb Jones at center is the exact look we want if we are looking for him to finally be productive in fantasy. As one of the league’s best defenders, he rarely gets a play off and his defensive effort usually leaves him with little energy to hit shots. There have been times when he fills it up, but that’s not what we expect. If he can contribute the way he has, but add in a few more rebounds and a few points here and there, his value as a defender will be noticed not only in the NBA but in fantasy basketball and in the DFS world as well.

New York Knicks

Buy: Jalen Brunson

Sell: Mikal Bridges

Jalen Brunson is the heart and soul of this team and Mikal Bridges decided that now was the time to finally work on a jump shot. This one speaks for itself.

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Oklahoma City Thunder

Buy: Cason Wallace

Sell: Alex Caruso

Despite Alex Caruso’s clear value to this team on the defensive end, young teams struggle to score and he doesn’t help with that. Cason Wallace, on the other hand, absolutely does. Wallace stretches the floor and is more than willing to shoot when open. Wallace is one of the first guys off the bench and you can expect that unless Caruso has a specific assignment that night, Wallace is going to be a quick sub.

Orlando Magic

Buy: Jalen Suggs

Sell: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Shouldn’t be much of a surprise with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope getting older and Jalen Suggs being one of the more important Magic players last year. Not only did he champion the defensive effort, but there were multiple strings of games where he was easily the most productive. Suggs is quickly emerging as a two-way superstar and could learn from the guidance of a defensive-minded veteran like Caldwell-Pope.

Philadelphia 76ers

Buy: Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond

Sell: Caleb Martin

When the 76ers touches have been funneled into Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr., both players excel. Maxey has made a name for himself all on his own and Oubre has made it clear that when he gets the usage, stats will follow. The same can be said for Andre Drummond for as long as he’s starting, and it’s fair to see how Caleb Martin is likely to get lost in the mix.

Phoenix Suns

Buy: Devin Booker

Sell: Jusuf Nurkic

Devin Booker continues to be an integral part of this team that keeps it afloat. With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal getting up there in terms of age, we are going to see usage flow more toward Booker and his playmaking has improved every season. However, with Jusuf Nurkic manning the paint, the amount of points Booker will need to score to keep up with opposing teams is going to feed families.

Portland Trail Blazers

Buy: Deni Avdija

Sell: Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton

With the Trail Blazers in a full rebuild, no players are entirely safe, but in a short time, Deni Avdija has already proven to be adaptable and has posted some eye-catching numbers. Players like Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton are unfortunately going to pull from Avdija’s overall stats, but this team isn’t looking to see what their veterans can do, we’re going to see Anfernee Simons and Avdija working together as primary and secondary playmakers trying to make this offense work. It may, it may not, but we can be sure that those two are getting touches every night.

Sacramento Kings

Buy: Keon Ellis

Sell: Keegan Murray

Keon Ellis was expected to be a starter seeing how he’s the team’s best defender, but a recent announcement said that Kevin Huerter was going to start. We’re not sure how many games it’ll take before the Kings start to prefer defense over whatever Huerter brings to the table, but Ellis will be the first guy off the bench. Selling on Keegan Murray isn’t saying he’ll have a bad year, just don’t expect him to put up the same numbers after nearly leading the league in three-pointers.

San Antonio Spurs

Buy: Victor Wembanyama

Sell: Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan’s value came from his ability to run the point, but that terrible experiment is long gone now that Chris Paul joined San Antonio. Sochan’s value is going to be crushed by whatever new role he is in combined with the team-first, pass-first mentality of the Spurs. Wembanyama and Paul will do numbers as a combo, but players like Sochan are going to have find a way to score consistently or fear being replaced by someone with more potential and less downside.

Toronto Raptors

Buy: Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl

Sell: None

Hard to sell on teams that lack depth. All these starters have just about proven themselves and can put up stats every night. Until something changes within this roster, the upside is simply unmatched. Jakob Poeltl causes trouble in the paint, Scottie Barnes’ playmaking jumped up a few levels last year, not to mention Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick’s shooting. This Raptors team might not have a ton of talent the further you go down the roster, but their top-heavy roster is going to turn some heads.

Utah Jazz

Buy: Lauri Markkanen

Sell: Collin Sexton

Nothing against Collin Sexton as a player, but for younger teams his playstyle can be problematic. Categorized as arguably selfish basketball, he can create offense for his teammates, but it comes at the expense of minimal ball movement and he usually ends up taking the shot anyway. It’s not great team basketball and when you aren’t a good team, one player scoring 30 points usually means you lost anyway. Sexton might have still have an impactful year, but that ignores how little he involves his teammates.

Washington Wizards

Buy: Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma

Sell: Jonas Valanciunas

The Wizards are in shambles and hard to judge in terms of positive production and minutes. We know Jordan Pool and Kyle Kuzma are getting their touches and leaving everyone else up to fend for themselves. Alex Sarr will undoubtedly be part of that trio as well, but there’s no saying what he will do with the usage.

Poole and Kuzma have proven to be able to create on their own and they rarely sacrifice their stats for the development of teammates. Passing for assists is one thing, passing because it’s the right play is an entirely different story and we know where Poole and Kuzma fall in this discussion

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