NBA Best Bets: Player Prop Bet Picks (Wednesday, 11/11/26)

November 11, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, 11/11/26. Use these NBA Player Prop Bets as straight bets, or build a parlay with several of your favorites!

Blowouts have been killing some of my favorite bets lately! Last night I faded some spots due to projected blowouts and missed out on some easy prop wins, while then targeting the Clippers-Suns game with several that ultimately fell short when the Clippers (who were only 4-point underdogs) lost by a million!

For today's picks, I'll include the best odds available at one of the books I use, but I'll also include the price at Novig, which is one of our partners and absolutely one of the best sports prediction markets out there.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Wednesday's NBA slate!

NBA Player Prop Bets

We have a bit of a theme today (not planned, I promise) with a lot of big men popping in great rebounding spots!

Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-111 Novig)

Towns leads all qualified players in the NBA with a 33.4% defensive rebounding rate. He's averaging 13.8 boards per game (in 31 minutes per contest) and facing a Cavs team that is allowing the second-most rebounds to opposing centers this season. Of the four games where he's gone under 12.5 boards, three of them have been on the hook right at 12, and several of those were games where he played low minutes due to foul trouble or a blowout.

The Knicks big man just faced Cleveland a few games ago and snagged 13 boards in that one. His elite rebounding rate, paired with his potential to play his full share of minutes tonight in what should be a close game (you better show up, Cavs!) as Cleveland is only a 4-point underdog on the road in New York.

Walker Kessler OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-130 Novig)

Towns has the second-best matchup for boards tonight, while Kessler has the absolute smash spot for bigs. We saw Towns clobber the Bucks last night for 16 rebounds in only 27 minutes! Milwaukee is dead last in rebounds allowed to centers, and also is allowing the most offensive rebounds to opponents in the league.

Enter Kessler, who averages 3.5 offensive rebounds per game, putting him inside the top ten in the NBA. He's been feasting on the glass lately, going for 11 or more boards in five of his last seven games.

We have a slight blowout risk here as the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Bucks are playing their second game in as many nights, but I am not sure that is going to matter for Kessler as we saw Towns go nuts without having to close the game.

Anthony Davis OVER 22.5 Points (-115 Novig)

AD has been in excellent form this year when healthy and in the lineup. He's giving the Wizards exactly what they had hoped for when they made the trade for him last season. His usage rate is sitting right around 30%, and he's gone over this points total in six of the nine games in which he's appeared so far this year. He's averaging 25.7 points on the season and coming off a massive 44-point outing against a good defensive team in Detroit.

Anthony Davis MASTERCLASS vs Detroit.

44 PTS | 13 REB | 16/21 FG | 2/4 3FG | 85 TS% https://t.co/1vfmY6bnyy

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) November 10, 2026

This game looks juicy for props, as it carries a 227.5-point total and only a 2.5-point spread. The Pacers' defense has been rough this year, and we saw them allow both Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg to have huge nights on Monday. Look for AD to crush this prop, and I'd consider laddering him up to 30 points tonight.

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NBA Value Player Props

Day'Ron Sharpe OVER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125 Novig)

I might lose some of you here. I mean, how can we trust Sharpe to get enough minutes tonight when his playing time has been inconsistent, and he keeps getting in foul trouble?

I will tell you why! The Pelicans are too soft a matchup to pass up! They're bleeding production to centers, allowing the sixth-most rebounds and third-most assists per game to opposing fives.

Sharpe's game log is all over the map, I know. But he's been dishing out dimes at an elite rate lately with 27 assists over his last three games. If we set the bar at 24 minutes, Sharpe has gone over this number in three of the four games that he's played that much this season, with 11 right on the nose against Charlotte.

He's a stat-stuffing machine, and I am taking the leap of faith on his ability to stay on the court tonight. If he does, he'll smash this number.

Alexandre Sarr OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-110 Fanatics)

Compare at Novig at -111

It's been a weird start to the season for Sarr, as he's been asked to share the frontcourt with Anthony Davis and take a smaller role on offense. However, his rebounding has been superb lately. He's averaging 9.4 boards over his last five games and has gone for 8 or more rebounds in each contest.

The Pacers are getting drubbed by opposing centers on the boards. They are allowing the fifth-most rebounds to centers, but have been particularly bad of late. Before the Dallas game, they had allowed eight straight centers to snag 9 or more boards. Now I know some of those games they played small and were without Ivica Zubac, but Zubac has been back for a few games now, and the rebounding numbers for opponents have not abated.

Again, I expect this to be a close game, so I think we get something like 26-28 minutes from Sarr tonight and that he'll crush this number in a good spot.

Cedric Coward OVER 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-105 DraftKings)

One of the reasons that Memphis is off to such a great start has to be the stellar play of their second-year wing, Cedric Coward. He doesn't have to score the ball much to make a big impact, as his defense, rebounding, and passing have all been quite good and are helping to elevate his teammates.

Cedric Coward on clean-up duty 💪

Two-handed flush with some POWER behind it! https://t.co/89ss8Edxiw

— NBA (@NBA) October 8, 2026

He's averaging 11 rebounds and assists per game this season, with most of that production coming from his strong rebounding (8.4 boards per game). However, he also has five games with three or more assists this season, and he can help facilitate on offense since the Grizzlies really don't have a traditional pass-first point guard in the starting lineup. Ty Jerome and Cameron Boozer both chip in assists, but Coward can also be a play-maker as well.

I love this game tonight as the Grizzlies will be tested by the Denver Nuggets at home. The Grizzlies are 3.5-point underdogs, and I think they'll battle with Denver the entire way. A competitive game means that there's a good chance Coward gets the 30 minutes we are looking for in order to him to hit his over.

Good luck if you're tailing, and thanks for reading!

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