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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 24th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
If you were able to power through Tuesday's slate of games, 11 games on Wednesday is going to be a treat. There are already four or five games on the menu that are set to be high scoring, starting with the Nuggets-Raptors earlier in the night. Milwaukee faces Boston, and despite the history, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown need to be healthy and playing at their peak if the Celtics want any chance of keeping the game close.
Pay attention to all four lineups for both the later games since the late-slate is featuring four high-powered offenses that will put up a ton of outside shots. With how things shook up Tuesday night, you need to avoid the Suns-Magic game at all costs. Orlando exerted too much energy last night trying to mount a 20-point comeback, only to come up terribly short. It's unlikely for them to rebound against a fresh Suns squad.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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DET @ IND
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 21.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) LESS 20.5 Points
The cool-down of Jerami Grant has been real and it's going to be tough to sit and watch his projected point total slowly rise as the day goes on. His focus on scoring is too great to assume he will ever hit the under based on matchup, but it's pretty clear Grant isn't guaranteed 20 points like he once was earlier in the season. He is still the focal point of the offense, but the Pistons have discovered new options that take the load off Grant later in the game. The points will be flowing in bunches, but he'll need to really be feeling his shot for him to keep scoring over 25 consistently.
The same goes for Domantas Sabonis. A player that was scoring with ease earlier in the year that has taken a significant step in a different direction. After dominating the paint for the beginning of the season, he has found new ways to attack defenses. Instead of looking to shoot at all times, he has started utilizing his teammates off-ball movement. Until there is a truly ideal matchup for him in the paint, it's hard to see him putting up serious points against team that already limits frontcourts.
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BOS @ MIL
Jaylen Brown (BOS) MORE 22.5 Points - Khris Middleton (MIL) MORE 21.5
If these two are the headliners for Boston's game in Milwaukee, this has to be the clearest line of the night. Jaylen Brown is getting the attempts naturally from being the best Celtic on the court whenever he's out there, not to mention, on the other side of the court, Jrue Holiday is going to do everything he can to get the Bucks best scorer rolling early.
The Celtics need to keep this game close for the safety of this bet, but it's hard to see that being the reason why both score under 22 points Wednesday night. Khris Middleton cruised over 20 points with help from Holiday's 14 assists last game Giannis Antetokounmpo was out.
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DEN @ TOR
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 24.5 Points - Pascal Siakam (TOR) LESS 20.5
Nikola Jokic put up 42 fantasy points in the first half of last night's game against the Magic, but Orlando still managed to sneak within five points before Denver ultimately pulled away. Despite the Nuggets playing better lately, they are having problems suppressing offenses later in games. The Raptors haven't necessarily been dangerous, but they have a well-rounded roster that will punish you if you let them. This game needs to stay close for Jokic to hit the over, but it's not like there is anyone on the Raptors that is going to be able to stop him if it doesn't.
Pascal Siakam isn't scoring as much as he was earlier this season and the production from the Raptors has started to focus around the guards for the past few games, especially with Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry playing well. With the rumors surrounding this team, you might want to check lineups before locking anything in, but if any starters are out, Siakam is going to pick and run away with that excess usage.
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CHA @ HOU
Terry Rozier (CHA) MORE 21.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 21.5
Terry Rozier scoring 22 points will make you sweat, but John Wall should clear that projected with few problems, especially against the Hornets backcourt. Wall is playing better and better every game, and now that he is producing in triple-double fashion, it should be noted that Wall playing good basketball has never come without his own brand of scoring. Wall and Christian Wood are the only two sure-things on the Rockets with so many rumors swirling around Victor Oladipo.
Here is the best way to address Terry Rozier's scoring. If 24 points on 17 shots didn't pass the eye test and for most of the game it seemed like he was struggling, it's hard not to like upside for the next few games. The Hornets will scramble for offense and Rozier thrives off that type of chaotic rhythm.
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ATL @ SAC
De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 26.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) LESS 25.5
This might the first and only time De'Aaron Fox is projected to have more points than Trae Young, but anyone watching the NBA lately knows exactly why. Fox is playing three-levels above what he has normally produced and there are zero signs of slowing down. As long as Fox is healthy and running this offense, expect him to get better and more efficient.
Trae Young on the other hand has been a source of discomfort for prop bettors. There has been no consistency and there is no matchup guide to when he will have a good game or not. It will just happen. The Hawks utilize Young's scoring whenever they can, but lately, they haven't needed him until much later in the game. The big problem here isn't the defense as a whole, but specifically Fox. If Young is picked up by someone like Fox or Tyrese Haliburton, it's going to be tough for him to find a consistent way to get off shots.
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