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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
There are 10 games Wednesday and only three are projected to be low scoring. The Celtics and Cavaliers are both playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and the Pistons-Raptors just doesn't have a lot of firepower throughout. The Heat and Grizzlies are on a similar path because of their dedication to defense and a slow pace, but both teams have players that dominate the usage and production nearly every game.
With Bam Adebayo back in the lineup, Jimmy Butler now has even more options and his scoring is going to take a hit. Butler thrives in any type of spacing, but it's hard to get a high-scoring game out of him if the rest of the Heat are hitting shots. Regardless, the slow pace of this game is going to be the biggest indicator of production.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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BKN @ IND
Kyrie Irving (BKN) MORE 27.5 Points - Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 20.5 Points
The Pacers defense has been somewhat successful in guarding superstars recently, but it's easier when you only have to focus on one player. Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell have stepped up to each assignment they have been given, but that does not mean they are ready to guard someone like Kyrie Irving. Irving continues to be the primary scoring threat in the Nets offense while James Harden does everything he can to distract the defense. So even if Brogdon or McConnell was face-guarding Irving, it doesn't mean much once he get's the ball in his hands, because that's inevitable.
Caris Levert is going to steal production from Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis eventually, but the spacing he offers is going to be well worth the decrease in production. The Nets don't have many defenders, but they have enough scoring to make it so even if LeVert has a good game, there's no way that alone will be enough to keep up with Brooklyn.
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MIL @ PHI
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 30.5 Points - Tobias Harris (PHI) MORE 22.5
With this game focusing around two of the leagues best defenders, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ben Simmons, its still hard to take the under on both. Without Joel Embiid, Antetokounmpo is going to roam the paint freely and the Bucks are going to be able to run him at center if they need to. Once Brook Lopez is out of the game, the 76ers are going to have to hope Tony Bradley or Dwight Howard is able to keep up with Giannis.
Until Joel Embiid returns, Ben Simmons is looking for few players more than Tobias Harris. Simmons might not be getting a ton of assists in return, but Harris still scoring with ease and Philadelphia needs to keep looking in his direction if they want any chance of winning. Harris has become the bail-out option that the 76ers have unfortunately needed as a primary option. Until the rest of the roster is deserving of more scoring chances, Harris and Simmons are the tandem.
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SAC @ WAS
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 32.5 Points - De'Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 27.5
The Kings and Wizards frontcourts have no defense and that's enough for two players who have a built a career around finishing at the rim. Bradley Beal has sacrificed scoring lately, but that's mainly because he has been dealing with knee soreness over the past few games. Against the Kings, very few players, and even fewer guards have decreased upside.
Similarly, the Wizards defense has not been their backbone. De'Aaron Fox is guaranteed usage and there aren't any Wizards frontcourt pieces that are set to disrupt hardcore scorers like that. Robin Lopez, in a best case scenario, has a better chance going up against a dominant big man than he does trying to stop Fox at full-speed, or even half-speed for that matter.
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BOS @ CLE
Jayson Tatum (BOS) LESS 28.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) LESS 25.5
The Cavaliers defense has no one outside of young hybrid forwards and Jarrett Allen, so both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are set up for easy scoring as long as they can avoid Allen at the rim. Tatum hasn't struggled to score lately, but he does thrive in matchups where he isn't being forced to pass-out consistently. Utah forced Tatum to generate on his own and he did. The Jazz won because of it, but Tatum still had a big game.
Collin Sexton has been doing everything he can for this team, but he knows that he can't be the only one taking shots. Every game he will get the chances, but unless he is having a career-game, he knows he needs help from his teammates if he actually wants to win. Best case scenario is the Celtics run away with the game and Sexton realizes early he's the only one scoring.
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CHA @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points - Gordon Hayward (CHA) MORE 20.5
There aren't many easier matchups than playing against the Hornets frontcourt, so find every chance you can to buy into Nikola Jokic tonight. The biggest problem with betting on Jokic in these situations in that you are forced to bet on Gordon Hayward as well.
Hayward plays a more supportive role against better teams, so even though he scored 16 in the first half last game, there's no reason to buy into Hayward outside of "a feeling." The Kings defense is terrible and scoring against a bad defense like that doesn't mean he will carry that momentum and score against the Nuggets.
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