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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 22nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
There were supposed to be 13 games Friday, but both the Memphis-Portland and Washington-Milwaukee contests have been cancelled. The Grizzlies next few games are going to be postponed as well, so some teams are going to benefit from the, hopefully healthy, rest. Over the past few weeks, Nikola Jokic has been the dominant force in just about every aspect. You'll notice with his stat lines, that despite his incredible averages, there are some inconsistencies that work in favor for prop betting.
With the Nuggets playing a frontcourt that consists of Deandre Ayton and Dario Saric, Jokic has upside across the board. In most cases, upside for Jokic can mean a low-scoring, high-assist, high-rebound game, but when facing such a weak frontcourt, 23-points is a cake walk since the rest of the Suns wings and guards are more than capable on the defensive end.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change.
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CHI @ CHA
Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 28.5 Points - Gordon Hayward (CHA) MORE 21.5 Points
The more you look into Zach LaVine playing against this Charlotte defense the more you realize the point total could increase before it decreases. The Hornet defense is average and their weakest spot, which has been the case for the previous few seasons, is their frontcourt. LaVine has the advantage against any guard, and where he will do most of his work is in the paint against the Charlotte bigs.
Gordon Hayward playing at his best doesn't necessarily mean he is good for 20 points. Charlotte has options other than Hayward, and the Chicago defense is actually one of the tougher defenses for small forwards to go against. That being said, that defense let's up points to small forwards and their defense-versus-small-forwards ranking stems from their ability to limit rebounds and assists at that position.
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HOU @ DET
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 24.5 Points - Victor Oladipo (HOU) MORE 23.5 Points
This is the first 30-point game for Jerami Grant in four games, and it shouldn't be a surprise that his usage hasn't dropped below 18% since the day after Christmas. The Rockets don't struggle against small forwards and power forwards on average, but Grant's length is going to impact whoever is roaming the paint. Since the Rockets struggle mightily against opposing centers and Grant is an rim-running wing, Grant is going to get the best of the matchup.
Victor Oladipo picked up steam defensively in a six-point loss to the Suns Wednesday, and it's hard seeing him score less than 24 points while taking over 20 shots-per-game. Even if he repeats, there's still has a great chance at the over.
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ORL @ IND
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 24.5 Points - Nikola Vucevic (ORL) LESS 21.5
The Pacers have been one of the top teams in the league, and even with their production distribution, the Magic, specifically, have struggled recently against point guards. Malcolm Brogdon is playing well and with an easier matchup, he will be able to look to score similar to how he did against the Mavericks backcourt.
Nikola Vucevic will have to deal with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner all game, but there is no certainty they will be able to stop him from scoring. Worst case scenario, Vucevic has still managed to score 22 points or more in three of the five Magic blowouts.
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BOS @ PHI
Jaylen Brown (BOS) MORE 25.5 Points - Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 24.5
There are fewer and fewer instances to take the under on Jaylen Brown the more he gets used to playing without Jayson Tatum. So until Tatum returns, the over is safe and taking the under is assuming Brown just won't be having a good night, and at that point, we'd all like to know your sources.
Joel Embiid exploded against Boston last game and it's hard to see the Celtics not at least trying a game plan to stop him. Granted, there is nothing the Celtics frontcourt can really do other than pester him slightly. It might not be another high-scoring affair, but 25 points is more than reachable seeing how easy it was for him last time out.
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MIA @ TOR
Bam Adebayo (MIA) MORE 21.5 Points - Fred Vanvleet (TOR) MORE 20.5
The Heat will always play the hot-hand and adapt to their opponent, which means the fact that Bam Adebayo scored so little against the Raptors the first time around means the Heat will go with what is working. Until Miami's shooters start missing, Bam Adebayo is in for another stat-stuffing game, low-scoring performance.
Even though Fred VanVleet has only scored 20 or more twice in his past six games, the Heat have struggled heavily against guards this past week. VanVleet is finding more and more success playmaking as the season progresses, and against a team that let's up point to small forwards and wing players, look for those players to free up space to let VanVleet take close to 20 attempts.
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BKN @ CLE
Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 29.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 24.5
The Nets debut was spoiled by Collin Sexton, and that might have been the best thing for the new trio. It was the first game of what-could-be a long legacy, and the Nets play that same opponent two games in a row. Kevin Durant had 38 points on 25 shots, and he controlled the game start to finish, almost uncontested like usual. He is bound to get more help from his teammates, but that doesn't mean he is scoring less than 30 points against this defense.
With the game on the line, Collin Sexton delivered on multiple occasions and you cannot teach that confidence. This Nets defense will have to send everything they have at Sexton to keep him from producing and even with the perfect game plan, his speed allows him to get to the rim and wherever he needs to be on the perimeter. It'll be interesting for Brooklyn to attempt to contain they can't contain.
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ATL @ MIN
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 27.5 Points - D'Angelo Russell (MIN) MORE 24.5
The Timberwolves defense allows for talented offensive players in a slump to recalibrate themselves. The Timberwolves are a similar team, just know Trae Young won't be playing 44 minutes again and the Timberwolves backcourt hasn't been terrible defensively this last week.
As for the Hawks backcourt, they have been terrible. 24-points is nothing for D'Angelo Russell and his point-total is bound to be switched with Young's the closer we get to tip-off.
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DAL @ SAS
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 27.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 18.5
With the lack of talent on the Mavericks currently, there is no guarantee Luka Doncic is going to be their highest scorer each night. Doncic is doing so much for this team, that he is sacrificing his own scoring for the sake of his teammates being able to carry a portion of the offensive load in exchange. When they aren't able to hit, Doncic takes it into his own hands and delivers, but predicting what game the Mavericks will be efficient from the field is a losing game. Literally.
If DeMar DeRozan ever has a point-total below 20-points and is playing a full workload, you have to take those odds. The Spurs have plenty of talented scorers, but none of them are consistently able to get to their spots like DeRozan.
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