RADIO
With the teams we have playing on Friday's nine-game slate, the pace will be incredibly high and the points are likely to follow. With a few players returning to lineups and some players being upgraded and downgraded throughout the day, it's been reported that both Kyle Kuzma and Scottie Barnes are available Friday night. Both LaMelo Ball and Jrue Holiday are still considered probable, with Brandon Ingram currently listed as questionable.
George Hill, Ish Smith, and Garrett Temple are seeing increased production and usage because of these specific injuries, so get the most out of their situations before their minutes vanish when the rightful starters return. Injuries can't be predicted, but some of the current trends aren't just flukes or random occurrences. Players like James Harden, Damian Lillard, and Fred VanVleet have struggled because of the current dynamic of their team and new league rules. Although it's not sustainable failure, there's multiple reason for why each player hasn't been scoring as many points and why their under value is more profitable then taking their over bets.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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BKN @ DET
James Harden (BKN) LESS 46.5 Fantasy Points - Jerami Grant (DET) LESS 28.5 Fantasy Points
The first matchup between these two teams resulted in just 29 minutes from James Harden, but he still managed to post his only triple-double of the season. It's tough to assume that the Pistons are going to be able to put up a tougher fight this time around, especially on the second night of a back-to-back, but both games being at home and Jerami Grant playing efficient basketball is an enormous boost to the Pistons potential. Regardless, there's already evidence that no one on Detroit can stop Harden, so things are already looking bad.
However, if Jerami Grant can keep converting like he was last night, the Pistons can hang with teams handily above their skill level. The tandem of Grant and Cade Cunningham showed some promise last night, but with Grant likely to be guarding Kevin Durant for most of the game, there won't be much room for him to contribute in the stat column. It's hard to take the under on Grant based on how well he carries momentum, but in most cases he isn't being asked to score AND guard one of the best players in basketball.
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MEM @ WAS
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 44.5 Fantasy Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 42.5 Fantasy Points
The Grizzlies backcourt defense looks tougher on paper. Rarely do players with Bradley Beal's scoring ability fail to score against them, so even though Spencer Dinwiddie will pull in a few stats of his own, it won't be enough to keep Beal from putting up a healthy share of fantasy points. It should be noted that Kyle Kuzma is likely to be returning from injury Friday, but even with another source potentially pulling from Beal's rebounds, there's only been one game this season where Beal failed to post a defensive stat and that was his first game back from injury. Beal's floor is fairly high against this team.
Similarly, the Wizards defense doesn't have a much better track record. Most recently, allowing Fred VanVleet to regain confidence with a 33-point outing, and a game before that, letting up 26-points to Trae Young, while also allowing six other Hawks to score in double-figures. Since Ja Morant does nearly everything for this offense, there's no reason to think he'll be outperformed by anyone in this game.
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CLE @ TOR
Darius Garland (CLE) LESS 18.5 Points - Khem Birch (TOR) MORE 6.5 Rebounds
The Raptors haven't been the hardest team to beat this year, but they've shown toughness on defense and teams have had to bank on Toronto not having enough firepower to keep up. Where they struggle on offense, they make up for it on defense, even without their full rotation. Since Darius Garland has yet to score above 20 points yet this season, it's more the fact that he isn't taking enough shots and is doing more distributing than anything. Until the Cavaliers start to shift their offense into different facets, Garland should rarely score above 20 points.
For Khem Birch, he just needs seven rebounds against Cleveland, which is absolutely obtainable, but not something he does regularly. Actually, Khem Birch has only grabbed seven or more rebounds in two games this season. His minutes have seen a slight increase, but his stats haven't yet followed. Since the Cavaliers give up a ton of rebounds despite Jarrett Allen putting in work on his end of the glass, Birch's only competition for rebounds is Precious Achiuwa.
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IND @ POR
Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 27.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 18.5 Points
Scoring 26 points on 27 shots, in a loss, is arguably the furthest thing from a bounce-back game. Granted, Lillard could use a few bounce-back games to make up for the start of the season, but that's just what it is. The start of the season. We know Lillard's ability is unmatched, he just hasn't founded his shooting rhythm yet. He will, but if it's going to take him near 20 shots just to score 20 points, there's not much choice but for him to have a big game. The Pacers tend to let up big games to guards with Myles Turner in the paint, so both C.J. McCollum and Lillard are primed.
Domantas Sabonis is a very lucky individual right now. He might be the one player, where the less he does, the more he helps his team. With Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner all playing consistently, he just needs to keep the momentum of the offense going, which comes naturally for him. He prefers to score, but over the last two seasons, he's developed a knack for passing out of the paint. It's almost become a crutch this year, but it's opened up the floor for the rest of the team and assuming he has plenty of space to work against Portland's frontcourt Friday, the production will literally fall into his lap.
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