RADIO
Favorites carried the day yesterday, but not quite like anyone expected. EDG blew the doors off of LNG while WE struggled mightly versus OMG. Thankfully the full three-game experience and reverse sweep rescued their scoring. DWG even had a bit of trouble, in-game one at least, completing their revenge sweep against Fredit Brion. HLE, thanks to some questionable draft strategy from AFS, were also able to complete their sweep. With another four-gamer on tap and me nearly sleeping the day away, let's get to it.
We've got three tight matches today and one blowout. According to the odds and your favorite LOL dfs analyst anyway. KT/SBG odds are moving in favor of the dogs, and DRX is slightly pulling away in their matchup. On the LPL side, FPX is a massive favorite, and rightly so. The other match is LGD favored, but in this toilet bowl, there may be no winners.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, March 12th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 KT Rolster (-165) vs. Liiv SBG (+125)
KT had a very rough week seven, losing to Drx and T1. They get a slight step down in competition in SBG. SBG won their only match in week 7 with a 2-0 win over Gen G. Which leaves us to question if SBG are the step down we might classify them as initially.
SBG has been the Estar or the LCK good in the early game but can find ways to lose almost any lead. KT did take the first match between these two back in week one. Separating the stats from the LNY break further hurts the side of SBG as it shows that they haven't been as proficient in the early game since returning to action. They have also bounced back and forth between OnFleek, who finally returned from suspension, and Croco. KT's jungle situation changed too, but at least they have been consisitent. KT's mid-lane is also up in the air, with Ucal and Dove trading back and forth.
I like the team stats from KT better than those of SBG, but I slightly prefer the players on SBG. Summit has played very well since the break, and Doran has been up and down. If Croco starts in the jungle, I'll be much happier with any SBG stacks I build. Fate has been more impactful than either KT mid. Maybe I'm a fool, but I still believe in Hybrid. I don't think much of Prince in the upset over Gen G SBG was ahead 8-4, and Prince was on Ezreal but still had zero kill participation. That upset had more to do with Gen G playing some tragic league of legends than SBG taking a big win. Top half of the map to SBG providing Croco starts, and the bottom half to KT.
Vegas is souring on KT as a favorite as the line is moving in favor of SBG. Looking at the kill projections shows that KT has more upside, SBG average 17 deaths in their losses. KT only 16, but since break KT has been trending lower with only 14.75 deaths in their defeats. SBG is also lower in the kills per win column with just over 17 than the 19 for KT. So I have KT with better team stats, but SBG with slightly better player stats. KT has the edge in kill numbers, and I think the ownership advantage. People will be looking to ram and jam FPX tonight, and for a good reason. That, coupled with SBG coming in off a big upset, will lead to them going, in my opinion, over-owned. I'll take KT to get the win, and I think they have some decent upside. If you do go for some SBG to live that hedge life keep your stacks small.
Top KT Plays
- Hybrid - ADC - has turned up since break and hyper carries like Jinx are so hot right now.
- Zzus - SUP - 76.% KP leads the team post LNY break.
- Gideon - JNG - second on the team in kill share.
- Doran - TOP - neither mid's numbers overshadow D07 by much, and with the way Summit has been playing, controlling him maybe a priority for KT.
7:00 AM: Nongshim RedForce (+140) vs. Dragon X (-180)
DRX has a lot going for them in this matchup, they won both of their games last week, and they won the first matchup between these two teams back in week two. Nongshim have struggled after the break, only taking one win and that over Liiv SBG. Let's take a look.
The post-break stats for RedForce don't look very appetizing, but they have played four of the top six teams in the league. The good news and bad news with that is there may be room for improvement, but DRX is another of those top teams. DRX has the edge early and late with advantages across the board. NSRF has side selection in the match, but it hasn't proven to be a significant factor in either theirs or DRX's win rate.
This one is pretty quick for me. I like DRX here, but I will temper my expectations for them a bit. They are one of the slower-paced teams in the LCK, and they only average 14 kills in their wins. I do always say that it is deaths per loss. I like to follow more closely, and NSRF does stand out a bit there. They average over 19 deaths in their losses across the season, but since the break have been trending down at only 17.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG - leads the team in KP% and is second in KS% in their wins.
- Bao - ADC - narrowly outpaces Pyosik in KS%.
- Becca - SUP - second on the team in KP%.
- Kingen - TOP - Rich has reigned in his feeding somewhat, but Kingen still has excellent stats for a top.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Estar (+115) vs. LGD (-150)
Usually, the early game on Saturday and Sunday is where the LPL positions its toilet bowl style matches, but we get a sneak peek into the bottom third of the league on Friday AM. Estar hasn't won a match since the start of week three versus OMG and hasn't even gotten a game since the end of week five against V5. Since then, they have been in several commanding positions but seem to have completely forgotten how to close out a game. LGD has picked up a few wins during that same time frame, and outside of the spanking they recently received from FPX have shown signs of competitiveness.
I've gone ahead and sorted the stats for this matchup from 1/22 onward, as that was when Kramer returned to the starting lineup for LGD. Since then, both teams have been putrid, with Estar going 2-18 and LGD slightly better at 5-13. Estar has been better early, and we've seen them establish some seemingly insurmountable leads; the mid to late game has been their undoing, and they have the worst MLR during that time frame in the league. Despite having a substantial edge in vision numbers, and equal total dragon numbers, Estar are at a disadvantage in baron percentage. The team stats go over to Estar.
Both teams have struggled with consistency, LGD has swapped jungle and support regularly, and Estar can't make up their mind about who to start in the mid lane. Jungle and support are a bit more critical for me than is mid, so I give another slight edge to Estar. Things become a bit more clear for me looking at the kill numbers. I have Estar projected at around a kill per win more than LGD. I don't think anyone is willing to call this matchup in a sweep for either side, and that pushes it to dog or pass status for me. Estar may finally be able to build a lead big enough that they can't blow it, and I believe they get a 2-1 win here.
Top ES Plays:
- H4cker - JNG - tied with Rat for the lead in KP% and second in KS%.
- Rat - ADC - first in both kill metrics for the team among the regular starters. It's finally RATSZN.
- ShiauC - SUP - I also wouldn't mind a cheeky ZedS pick here, but if I believe in Rat, I have to give some prio to his support as well.
6:00 AM: FunPlus Phoenix (-1800) vs. TT (+800)
We have one gimme on this slate, and this is it. Even though FPX are 2-2 with Beichaun in the jungle role, with those two losses being RA and RNG, I'm not going to hold those against them. TT are winless during that same time frame, including the worst mental boom game I have ever seen in their perfect game defeat at the hands of SNG. Previous to that series, they had been close to taking down JDG and RA, getting a game off both. We'll see which version of Thunder Talk shows up today, and we'll find out if it even matters.
FPX has gone out of its way to adjust its playstyle and drafts to help Beichuan. They have placed massive priority on Karthus during the draft phase to help their rookie jungler feel comfortable in the big leagues. They went to a more meta-strategy last time out versus LGD with some standard Udyr drafts and were rewarded with excellent play. FPX STOMPED a mudhole in LGD and walked it dry, finishing the series in just over 43 minutes. Beichuan is up to speed in the LPL, and the team will continue to redevelop its's chemistry as we head into the playoffs.
FPX has been one of the best early game teams in the league regardless of the jungle's starter. They will have the side selection for this match and can use it to secure a comfort pick for Beichuan or grab a top-tier adc for LWX. TT's best hope in this match is disrupting the jungle matchup or keeping the game close enough to reach mid to late-game team fights on even footing. That will allow them to lean on their advantage in-consistency as FPX is still learning to play around with their latest jungle swap.
I doubt they will accomplish either of those tall tasks, and I believe FPX gets another quick 2-0. If FPX put up another speed run like they did versus LGD, they likely won't pay off those incredible prices across the board. The problem is without FPX; we're left with some coin flip style matches to pick from, as they are the only safe win on the slate.
Top FPX plays
- Beichuan - JNG - first in KP% on the team since he became the starter.
- Crisp - SUP - second in KP% during the Beichuan era.
- Lwx - ADC - tied with Doinb for third in KP%, but his 31.1% kill share leads the team.
- Doinb - MID - lower kill share than Nuguri, but higher kill participation.
Summary
- TLDR: KT 2-1, DRX 2-0, Estar 2-1, and FPX 2-0. LGD is favored over Estar, and ES has played awful lately, but I'm stuck chasing them getting a win, so I can't jump off now. SBG is a very live dog, but I would stick to small stacks if that's where you end up.
- FPX is the day's play, but they will be the most popular team on the slate. There is also a significant risk that they mollywhomp TT not to score very well. This risk makes them fadeable in GPP, but not in cash, where their security is unbeatable.
- Focusing on the more competitive matches here can make you different while still allowing you to get a lineup of favorites you're comfortable with. No need to reach for an Estar upset like I might. We saw this pan out well last night with HLE and EDG outscoring DWG.
- Good luck, have fun, and we'll see you back here tomorrow for the final big five Saturday slate of the spring split. It won't be long, and we'll be into the grueling playoffs season, and I'm already thinking ahead to MSI as well.
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