RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 450
CURRENT ADP: ~470 overall
ANALYSIS: Kris Bubic is a fast-moving left-handed starter that was drafted out of Stanford University as the 40th overall pick in the 2018 draft. Being a left-hander with solid pitchability and an advanced changeup, Bubic was able to carve through the lower levels of the minor leagues. Then, the Royals shocked us last summer by calling Bubic up to The Show for his debut. He wound up starting 10 games for the Royals in 2020. Bubic's changeup still flashes as an MLB-level plus pitch. However, major league hitters still managed to touch it up, slugging .474 against it last summer. The pitch works as a whiff generator, getting whiffs at a 31.1% rate last season. When the changeup is working well for Bubic, the velocity is in the low 80s and the pitch starts at the hitter’s knees before dropping off the table. This forces batters to swing at a pitch that looks like it’s going to be a called strike at the bottom of the zone. However, he missed his mark up in the zone too frequently last season, with his changeup being punished as a result.
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Bubic slots in as the 5th starter in the Royals rotation to start the season. If he is able to tighten the command of his changeup, he can hold that role throughout the year. Upside projection in that scenario would have him with a K/9 over 9.0 and would possibly shave a half-run off his 4.50 ERA projection.
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