Infielders Ready to Break Out Late

Jamie Steed examines infielders past the age of 26 who could have breakout seasons for fantasy baseball in 2021.

Finding value is crucial on draft day and finding just one or two players in the mid to late rounds in drafts that provide better numbers than projected can give you a significant edge on the competition as you bid for fantasy glory.

All too often, we look for the new shiny object in drafts thinking they’ll come up to the Majors and dominant straight away. While some do, we need to remember that development isn’t linear and while some players will be stars at 22, some players take a bit longer to show their real talents.

That’s where we will be focusing our attention now, looking at three infielders who are aged between 26-29 years old and are set to break out after having a so-so career to date.

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Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

29 years old

One year ago, I wrote about how Christian Walker would be a breakout candidate in 2020 following a successful 2019, his first full season in the Majors. If we look back at his 2019 Statcast profile, it's understandable why I backed him so strongly.

Walker put together a solid 2020 campaign hitting .271/.333/.459 with seven homers in 57 games, although that's hardly worth describing as a break out. If we compare his 2020 Statcast profile to 2019, we'll see some slight drop-offs in some categories and a significant drop in barrel rate (barrel %).

Although we mustn't dismiss 2020 stats, the season did throw up some anomalies and even with such a significant drop in Walker's barrel %, he was still able to increase his batting average from .259. a career-high .271. Given a barrel takes into account the exit velocity and launch angle and Walker's average exit velocity didn't drop by much (91.1 MPH in 2019 to 90.04 MPH in 2020), the barrel % drop can be attributed to a change in launch angle. As we can see below (data from Statcast), Walker's flyball rate (FB%) dropped but his groundball rate (GB%) was almost identical and it was actually turned into an increase in his line drive rate (LD%).

Not only did Walker hit fewer flyballs, but he also saw a marked drop in his home run to flyball rate (HR/FB) from  20.1% in 2019 to 12.1% in 2020. Hitting fewer flyballs and having a smaller percentage of flyballs clear the fence gives us a reason why Walker only hit seven homers last year (equivalent to 19 in a full season). Statcast emphasizes that Walker was unlucky in 2020 with regards to home runs as he had an expected home run (xHR) total of 11.3. That's nearly a 50% increase and would equate to 30 homers in a full season. Among all hitters in 2020, only one player had a bigger negative difference between total homers and expected homers than Walker's 4.3 and that was Garrett Hampson (-4.4).

Last year, Walker provided excellent production in the counting stats too with 35 runs scored and 34 RBI. That was on a Diamondbacks team that ranked 18th overall in runs scored on route to a 25-35 record. For context, among all first basemen, Walker ranked 5th for runs scored and 7th in RBI. After predominantly hitting in the fifth spot of the Arizona lineup, Walker spent the final month of the season as the number three hitter which should continue and help him towards topping 90 runs and RBI (which he did the equivalent of in 2020).

Over the last two seasons, Walker has shown he can hit for power and also put up a solid batting average while compiling good run and RBI numbers. Walker's current ADP is ~189 and he's being drafted 22nd among first base eligible players. If he manages to combine the best bits of his last two seasons, Walker will likely end the 2021 season as a top-10 first baseman and is on the verge of taking that next step.

Colin Moran (1B, PIT)

28 years old

The departure of Josh Bell in a trade to the Washington Nationals has opened up a full-time spot at first base for Moran who put up his most impressive power numbers last year. Moran led the Pirates in 2020 with 10 homers in 52 games (having hit 25 in his previous 309 MLB games prior) and had a .247/.325/.472 slash line. If we compare Moran's 2020 to his previous two seasons when he joined the Pirates and became a Major League player, we can see it looks like Moran traded in some average for more power.

While Moran did lose .030 off his previous years' batting average, his slugging percentage was a career-best and he hit nearly as many homers in less than half the number of plate appearances than 2018 and 2019. As you might expect, Moran did strikeout more with this approach with a career-high strikeout rate (K%) of 26.0% (17.6% in 2018 and 23.3% in 2019). Yet he also had a career-best walk-rate (BB%) of 9.5% (8.4% in 2018 and 6.0% in 2019).

Not all the batting average drop is from selling out for more power however as Statcast had Moran's expected batting average (xBA) at .255 so a slight improvement on his actual average and his .291 BABIP was lower than previous years (.316 in 2018 and .341 in 2019). If his luck normalizes, a batting average around .260 (which is about the mark projections have him for in 2021) is in play. Will the power stick for 2021 though? Well, if we compare Moran's Statcast profiles for the last two years, there's reason to believe it won't.

Moran isn't simply swinging at more pitches, he's just making harder contact. A look at his plate discipline highlights that.

O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside of the strike zone, Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside of the strike zone and Swing% is the total percentage of pitches a batter swings at. A drop in Moran's Z-Swing% from previous years tells us that he's just being more selective with what he's swinging at and being more patient by waiting for the pitch he likes.

There's no escaping the fact that the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates are more likely to lose 100 games than have a .500 record over a full season which will limit Moran's run and RBI production. That being said, Moran did lead the Pirates in both categories last year with 28 runs and 23 RBI, equating to 75 runs and 62 RBI over a 162 game season. He also spent most of 2020 hitting third or fourth in the lineup which will likely continue in 2021 and the Pirates simply don't have any reason not to start Moran against lefties and righties as they have no real suitable alternative at first base.

Moran's ADP is ~469 and 44th among first base eligible hitters so he'll be heavily undrafted in most standard leagues. Providing he continues to hit the ball harder than previous years (and there's no reason to believe he wouldn't), we're looking at a 25-30 homer season in 2021 and his batting average should be around a league average .260. Despite starting the season off on most leagues' waiver wires, Moran will be rostered much more heavily as the season progresses. Now entrenched in his peak years, Moran is poised to have a career year in 2021.

Dylan Moore (2B, SEA)

28 years old

Comments from Seattle Mariners Manager Scott Servais regarding Shed Long Jr. and Dylan Moore being in a battle for the second base job in Spring might scare away people from drafting Moore. But they needn't be overly concerned. We need to factor in that Moore could still see regular playing time in the outfield too (like he did in 2020 when he featured as an outfielder in 22 games). The Mariners currently have a choice of Jose Marmolejos, Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop and Sam Haggerty to join Kyle Lewis and a fit-again Mitch Haniger in the outfield (until they call up uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic).

With Moore being a right-handed hitter and Long Jr. a lefty, there is always a possibility of a platoon but Moore actually has similar career numbers versus left-handed and right-handed pitching as we can see below.

There are minimal differences between his slash lines with a higher strikeout rate and higher walk rate against right-handed pitching. It's hard to see how Moore could be platooned based on these numbers.

After a rough debut season in 2019 where Moore slashed .206/.302/.389 with nine homers and eleven steals in 113 games, Moore looked more accomplished in 2020 by hitting .255/.358/.496 with eight homers and twelve steals in just 38 games. The last two years have given us a good idea of what Moore could be capable of over a full season as he's played 151 games since 2019 and has a .224/.323/.427 slash line with 17 homers and 23 steals. His 2021 projections all seem to offer up a similar season as to his career numbers but they may be doing Moore a bit of a disservice. If we look at Moore's 2020 Statcast profile, we get the impression that there may be more power to come.

We are looking at small sample sizes, for both last year and his career, but Moore's barrel rate (barrel %) increased from 6.5% in 2019 to 13.8% in 2020, his average exit velocity went up from 88.4 MPH to 90.4 MPH and his hard-hit rate (hard hit %) improved from 36.1% to 44.7%. Although Moore featured in 113 games in 2019, he only started 67 and was moved all over the infield and outfield as a utility player which many hitters struggle to find a rhythm and consistency doing. Being an everyday player going forward, these are all gains that should be sustainable or at least close to repeatable.

Moore's speed already offers a nice floor for fantasy purposes. His 23 steals in 151 career games is enticing enough and he has shown improvements in his stolen base attempts. Moore's 11 steals in 2019 came from 20 attempts (55.0% success rate) and his 12 steals in 2020 came from 17 attempts (70.6% success rate). Pure speed doesn't always translate to stolen bases as many rookies take time to adapt to stealing on Major League pitchers and catchers so it's positive Moore has seen a significant increase in his success rate. That should lead to more opportunities to steal bases in 2021. That and the Mariners' struggles in scoring runs (ranked 22nd with 254 runs in 2020) means they will need to utilize Moore's speed to put runs on the board.

Moore's speed also puts a premium on his draft day valuation given his current ADP of ~110. Moore is a potential 20/20 player and if his 2020 gains hold or even progress, 22 homers and 30 steals are possible. His projected batting average is based on his career mark rather than an added emphasis on last year's improvements so factor that in, a batting average in the .250-.260 range in 2021 is also in the offing. Moore hit almost exclusively as the no.1 or no.2 hitter last year so although he won't help much in the RBI category, he could still score 75+ runs. Everything is trending towards Moore having a break out year in 2021.

Honorable Mentions

Edwin Rios (3B, LAD) - 26 years old

As things stand, Rios is the Dodgers starting third baseman, something which could change before Opening Day as the Dodgers actively seek a third baseman. Rios debuted for the Dodgers in 2019 following 31 homers in 104 Triple-A games with a .270/.340/.575 slash line. He played 28 games for the Dodgers after his call-up and a further 32 last year. In his 60 Major League games, Rios has hit 12 homers and is more than capable of hitting 30 homers across a full season if he's given the chance. Rios currently has an ADP of ~326.

Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR) - 26 years old (on Opening Day)

Like Rios, Tellez is only a regular role away from being a break out star in 2021. If he does work his way into being the Blue Jays regular first baseman or even the DH, we could be seeing a 30 homer season from him as well. Tellez has 33 homers in 169 career MLB games for the Blue Jays and a .250/.309/.488 slash line. Tellez will get to play in a ballpark that favors power hitters and is the perfect place to call home. Currently, with an ADP of ~253, an everyday role will see Tellez shoot up draft boards and he could find himself being near the top-10 first baseman by season's end.

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