RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! It was a battle of the ball-strikers at Torrey Pines during a fun Saturday night finish. Long-time DFS favorite, Luke List, finally broke through for his first career win on the PGA Tour by defeating a player that almost feels like the new and improved version of himself, Will Zalatoris, in a sudden-death playoff. A putting contest it wasn't.
After a brief reprieve from the Pro-Am format, we head to one of the most picturesque locations in the world to resume the slog. I suppose there are worse places to play eight-hour rounds of golf. Let's hop into the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am
I'm gonna try not to be an old man yelling at a cloud here, but why do we spend a week each year playing a Pro-Am on one of the best golf courses in the world? Pebble Beach hosts U.S. Opens for crying out loud! So explain to me like I'm a four-year-old why instead of watching the best golfers in the world compete on one of the world's best courses, we're forced to watch Larry Fitzgerald routinely smash his bogus handicap? #SpoilerAlert...the answer - as it always seems to be when discussing the PGA Tour's motives - is money. Ok, rant over.
You probably picked up on the fact that I'm not crazy about this event. Why? Well, like at the American Express a couple of weeks ago, we're forced to deal with a three-course rotation - two of which don't have ShotTracker - as well as a 54-hole cut and rounds that can take up to seven hours. Basically, following this event for DFS purposes can be downright brutal.
In addition to the ridiculous format - and because of it to an extent - we also must deal with a noticeably-weak field of entrants. With many of golf's biggest names over in Saudi Arabia this week picking up a large, guaranteed check that's likely written in blood-red ink, we're left with an AT&T field that's so much less than it should be. Daniel Berger was one of the few notables in last year's field and captured the AT&T Pebble Beach title. He'll be back to defend against a list of entrants that includes Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Justin Rose.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par 72 - 6,816 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: Jack Neville & Douglas Grant
As mentioned in the intro, we are dealing with three different courses this week. In addition to Pebble, which players will play once in the first three rounds and again in the final round, Spyglass Hill (6,953 yds/Par-72/Poa) and Monterey Peninsula's Shore Course (6,958 yds/Par-71/Poa) will also be in the rotation. All three are ruggedly beautiful, with the famous Pebble Beach being the crown jewel.
All three courses measure less than 7,000 yards, so distance isn't a necessity this week. Players will need to find fairways and greens, but that can be more difficult than it sounds in often unpredictable conditions. All three of these courses are smack-dab on the Monterrey Peninsula coast and huge changes in weather can, and often does, influence the outcome of this tournament.
So...we are forced to deal with a lot of unpredictable variables this week. The course a player draws for each different day and the amount of wind during their rounds on those different courses is something that is unfortunately out of our hands. This event is famously tough on first-timers, so I'm targeting players with plenty of AT&T experience that are sharp on approach shots.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent AT&T Pebble Beach Winners
- 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
- 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
- 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
- 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
Event Notes
- Last year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am format was altered due to COVID, with the Pro-Am format being suspended and the tournament being played on two courses (Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill) rather than the traditional three.
- Golfers will play one round each on Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, & Monterey Peninsula's Shore Course before those that make the 54-hole cut (Top-65 and ties) spend the final round at Pebble.
- This week's field includes just one of the OWGR's top-10 golfers - No. 3 Patrick Cantlay.
- Other notables in the AT&T field: Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Justin Rose, Jason Day, & Seamus Power.
The Horse
Daniel Berger
Notable Course History: Win (2021), T5 ('20), T10 ('15)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
I've always viewed defending champions as sort of low-hanging fruit for the purposes of this article. I mean...they've obviously got strong course history, right? However, I'm willing to break my own rules this week with Daniel Berger, because he stands out as one of the very few elite golfers in this week's field and also possesses a truly elite track record in this event.
Berger's AT&T resume might not be as extensive as some, but it is unbelievably impressive. The FSU alum has just three career starts in this event, but he's done a lot of damage in them, posting a win, a T5, and a T10 over those Pebble Beach appearances.
Berger doesn't bomb it off the tee like Bryson DeChambeau or strike the irons like Collin Morikawa. Though his game might be a bit short on style, it is long on substance. After fighting through a career setback in the form of a significant wrist injury that lingered throughout 2019, the 28-year-old has rebounded to win in each of the last two calendar years.
He's not only displayed tournament-winning upside but has also been one of the most consistent players in the world over the last two years. Over his last 40 starts, Berger has made 38 cuts. As he heads to Pebble Beach - and an event in which he's amassed a 68.33 career scoring average that stands as the best mark in this week's field - he's gained strokes T2G in 10 consecutive starts and has gained an average of 4.4 strokes T2G over his last 20.
The Ponies
Patrick Cantlay
Notable Course History: T3 ('21), T11 ('20), T35 ('18), T9 ('13)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Any concerns of a FedEx Cup championship-induced hangover have been quickly erased by Patrick Cantlay. The Californian seems to have picked up right where he left off in 2022, as he's come out of the gate with strong showings at both the Sentry (4th) and the AmEx (9th).
Cantlay brings all that momentum to a Pebble layout where he came up just short in last year's AT&T and ultimately settled for a share of third place. The finish kept Cantlay's AT&T record perfect (five made cuts in five career starts) and brought his career scoring average in the event to a tidy 69.65.
He stands out as the only player in the AT&T field that's ranked inside the OWGR top-10 and has the statistics to match. Cantlay ranks first among this week's entrants in SG: Total over the last 50 rounds. That's the type of all-around excellence that has helped to thrive at Pebble Beach throughout his young career.
Jason Day
Notable Course History: T7 ('21), 4th ('20), T4 ('19), T2 ('18), T5 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Ok...cue the Undertaker GIF
Much to the delight of my RotoBaller colleague and noted Jason Day enthusiast, Spencer Aguiar, the Aussie did indeed look to be back in form at the Farmers Insurance Open. Day held a share of the 54-hole lead and was tied for the lead until a pair of late final-round bogeys dropped him into a tie for third.
He now brings loads of momentum to an event in which he's been dominant. Day leads this week's AT&T Pebble Beach field in event SG: Total (+58.12) & stands second career scoring average (69.15). He's never actually won the AT&T, but owns an overwhelmingly ridiculous track record in the tournament. 12 career starts with 12 made cuts that includes EIGHT top-seven finishes.
His terrific play at Torrey is a strong harbinger of success for him at Pebble Beach. We've seen a successful California two-step from Day many times before...
- 2015: Farmers - Win; AT&T - T4
- 2018: Farmers - Win; AT&T - T2
- 2019: Farmers - T5; AT&T - T4
- 2020: Farmers - T16; AT&T - 4th
- 2022: Farmers - T3; AT&T - ???
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Maverick McNealy
Notable Course History: 2nd ('21), T5 ('20)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
His final finishing position at the Farmers doesn't indicate just how well he played for three days. Unfortunately, Maverick McNealy sank down the leaderboard like a stone due to an abysmal final-round 75.
He'll get a chance to redeem himself this week on a familiar layout. The California native and Stanford alum has found Pebble Beach to be very friendly over the last couple of years. McNealy narrowly missed his first PGA Tour victory in last year's AT&T, ultimately settling for a runner-up finish to Daniel Berger.
While he performed admirably on all types of courses during what was a true breakout year in 2021, McNealy's true comfort zone lies on short golf courses. His aforementioned runner-up finish at Pebble Beach last year was accompanied by another at the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town - another notoriously-short layout. Over his last 36 rounds on golf courses less than 7,200 yards, McNealy ranks sixth among this week's entrants in SG: Total and second in DK Points scored.
Kevin Streelman
Notable Course History: 13th ('21), 2nd ('20), T7 ('19), 6th ('18), T14 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
We certainly aren't betting on recent form with Kevin Streelman, as his T39 in the recent Farmers Insurance Open stands as his best result since August. However, his performance at Torrey (+5.48 SG: T2G) is especially notable, as it indicates the veteran might be trending at just the right time.
Streelman has ran off six consecutive made cuts in the AT&T and has never finished worse than T17 in any of those appearances, with three top-seven finishes since 2018. The veteran is a small-ball specialist that tends to thrive on the PGA Tour schedule's shorter layout. He grades our fourth among this week's field in SG: T2G on golf courses under 7,200 yards over long-term measurements.
I don't know how much it actually matters, but Streelman and his traditional Pro-Am partner, Larry "The Sandbagger" Fitzgerald, have won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am two times...so Streelman undoubtedly has a high level of comfort with that aspect of the event.
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