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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/6/22)

luka doncic NBA dfs lineup picks daily fantasy basketball advice

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/6/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Oh man, we were so close to another perfect night! Player props went a perfect 4-0, the Heat blew out the Hornets, and the Bucks cruised over their team total. But the last two bets missed by one point each! The Grizzlies tied the game against Utah at the buzzer and then proceeded to lose by six in overtime. I went to bed with the Suns having 98 points after three quarters thinking they'd surely cover their 121.5 team total only to wake up and see they scored only 23 points in the fourth after pulling their starters in a convincing win over the Lakers. 6-2 is still a solid night and the model was right about a few other spots, so I am happy about that and ready to drop some more picks today for this six-game NBA slate.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, April 6, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 188-161-2
  • Against the Spread 83-71-2
  • Over/Under 36-46
  • Player Props 69-44
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks

Dallas Mavericks (-9) @ Detroit Pistons (220 total)

The Pistons are 20-12 this season ATS as home underdogs and have been quite friendly to bettors in the second half of the NBA season as they've been covering as hefty underdogs quite often. They've won three games in a row now, including a surprising upset of the Sixers last Thursday. As soon as I saw this spread this high, I knew I'd likely be in on the Pistons with the points here.

Let's talk about Dallas though for a minute. I respect what they've done this season and how they've managed to get the most of their role players. They are a really good, probably underrated team and Luka is a star. However, their recent results are a bit screwy. They just beat the defending champion Bucks by six on the road but also lost by 32 to Washington the game before. Perhaps the Washington loss was fluky, but I do think they tend to play down or up to their competition a bit.

I'm taking the improved Pistons to cover here, though I do think Dallas wins.

The Pick: Pistons +9 (-110 DK)

 

Brooklyn Nets (-7) @ New York Knicks (232 total)

The Nets beat Houston last night, but let them hang around a bit longer than they should have and the Rockets trimmed the lead to 10 points in the fourth quarter at one point. Brooklyn has to turn around and play the Knicks tonight in a game that will likely be tougher than you (or they) might think.

The Knicks were one of only a few teams off last night and have the rest advantage here. Those splits are something I look at every day, but I usually don't weigh them a ton unless I see some major trends. Brooklyn is only 3-9-1 ATS this season on back-to-backs and the Knicks are 12-8 ATS when they have the rest advantage. Those two trends paired together make for a compelling case for the Knicks.

And then when we look at the season series, it only confirms my Knicks pick! Consider that even though Brooklyn is 3-0 against New York this season, they've won those three games by a combined 10 total points (an average margin of victory of 3.3 points).

So I'm in on the Knicks as home dogs to cover, but I also like this total and you can see in the model it's way over where I would expect it to be. I have this game much closer to a typical NBA game with a projected 222 total. And again, when we look at the season series, we see that the totals of the first three matchups were 222, 217, and 217. So I'm grabbing the spread and total here in this one.

The Pick: Knicks +7 (-110 DK)

Bonus Pick: UNDER 232 (-110 DK)

 

Washington Wizards (+10.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (231 total)

The Wizards are getting absolutely no respect with this line, despite beating a playoff team last night by 18 points on the road. Washington has been pretty decent down the stretch and while they lost by 40 to Boston (who is just playing at an unreal level right now), they also have an impressive win against Dallas in their most recent five-game stretch.

I just really never, ever trust the Hawks - and if you have read this column this year, you know that. I had the Raptors covering against them yesterday and it was the one pick I was really on but didn't include based on not enough supporting trends. The Hawks are just really poor on defense and missing John Collins' inside presence late in the season. With both teams having played yesterday, the advantage here in the trends goes to Washington, who has been one of the best teams with no rest (8-4) while Atlanta has been one of the worst (5-10) this season ATS.

Again, this is just too big of a number, and as I said with the Detroit-Dallas game, I'm definitely more inclined to take some worthy underdogs with the points today than I am jumping on heavier favorites.

The Pick: Wizards +10.5 (-110 DK)

 

Boston Celtics (-7) @ Chicago Bulls (222 total)

I wanted to include something from this game earlier this morning, but still don't feel good about laying seven points on the road with the Celtics, despite the overwhelming support for them to handle the Bulls in this one. Chicago gets Zach LaVine back, but their still struggling defensively and have allowed 116 points per game over their last ten. They're fading down the stretch and their defense is going to be what prevents them from making a run in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Boston is surging and scoring points in the process of racking up wins. They're averaging 123 points per game over their last ten and we rode their team total the other day in another good spot. This total is surprisingly low to me with Chicago being on the second half of a back-to-back and I want to take advantage of that by jumping on the Boston total at only 115.5. They've scored exactly 114 points in each of their first two meetings with the Bulls this season, but those games were much earlier in the season when Chicago was playing much better defense and Boston wasn't in such great offensive form.

Celtics team total over 115.5 (-115 DK)

 

Phoenix Suns (+2.5) @ L.A. Clippers (229.5 total)

I'm totally backing off the Suns here as they've moved from -3 to +2.5 as bettors are anticipating that they rest guys tonight. If they play their guys, then maybe jump on them as underdogs but this is no longer a bet I endorse until we know who is playing for Phoenix.

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Al Horford over 22.5 PRA (-105 DK) - If it ain't broke, don't fix it! Big Al has hit his PRA prop three straight times since taking over at center for Robert Williams III and today gets a Bulls team playing their second game in two nights. He's about as reliable as they come as a rebounder and passer, and usually scores just enough to put him into the 25-30 PRA range with starters' minutes.

Obi Toppin over 26.5 PRA (-120) - Toppin has finally been given big minutes for the Knicks late in the season with Julius Randle shut down and has 28 and 31 PRA in his most recent two starts at PF. I think the Knicks keep this one close and Toppin gets there.

Dorian Finney-Smith over 1.5 3PM (-175 DK) - DFS didn't get there last time for us, but is in another good spot for him here against Detroit. The Pistons allow a lot of open looks for spot-up shooters and DFS gets most of his shots up on offense on spot-up threes when Luka penetrates. He just needs two tonight and shoots the long ball around 39%. He has two threes or more in 8 or his last 10 games.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

No parlays today, make some of your own using my model!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
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