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Potential fantasy football running back sleepers for 2024 redraft leagues based on current ADP. Thunder Dan explains why drafting these running backs could provide major value this season.
Drafting players who end up producing more value than you had to spend on them with draft capital is the best, and simplest way to win in fantasy sports and especially fantasy football.
Sure, working the waiver wire and making trades can help your team throughout the season, but if you draft poorly - you are setting yourself up for an uphill battle that will be hard to overcome.
At times it might make sense to reach for a player you are high on for the upcoming season, you should always be mindful of the price you are paying as you might be able to replicate your preferred player's production with another player a round or two later. Here are five receivers who I think can outperform their ADP in this coming 2024 fantasy football season.
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Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins
Consensus ADP: 41
Here's the thing. I want a piece of this high-powered Miami offense, but if I end up drafting fifth or later, Tyreek Hill isn't going to be available, and I'm not willing to take De'Von Achane in the second round and bank on another hyper-efficient season on limited touches.
Why not buy the dip on Waddle, who is being drafted in the late third or even early fourth round in drafts? Waddle missed three games last season but still managed to break 1,000 yards on 72 receptions and score four touchdowns.
Jaylen Waddle
100+ targets & 1,000+ receiving yards each of his three years in the NFL.
Top 12 fantasy WR both seasons with 16+ appearances.
Averaging 8+ targets per game in his last 10 games played.
Low-end WR1 with elite ceiling.
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) August 16, 2024
He finished as the WR7 in 2022 with Hill on the team and not much changed in how he was used last year. He saw an increase in targets per game from 6.9 in 2022 to 7.4 in 2023, he simply didn't find the end zone as often (8 TDs in 2022 to four in 2023).
The Miami offense is loaded, and I don't view the additions of Jonnu Smith and Odell Beckham Jr. or the breakout of Achane as negatives for Waddle or Hill. The offense is still going to be funneled through Miami's top two wideouts, and the fact that Mike McDaniel has more weapons at his disposal is only going to help those alpha receivers get open more often.
I'm content to let others draft Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and DK Metcalf ahead of Waddle, and I love it when he falls to me in the third round.
Christian Kirk - Jacksonville Jaguars
Consensus ADP: 73
Remember Kirk's first season in Jacksonville? I do because he was a key contributor on a few league-winning teams for me that season. In case you forgot, Kirk played in all 17 games that season and finished with 84 receptions for 1108 yards and eight touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence targeted him a whopping 133 times that season.
Last year we saw the Jags' offense take a step back as the Calvin Ridley experiment didn't exactly work out and Lawrence was underwhelming when compared to the lofty expectations placed on him by many.
But the biggest issue for Kirk was just his health, as he missed five games in 2023. He was on pace for similar numbers to 2022 as he averaged 65 yards per game in both seasons and nearly identical yards per completion numbers of 13.2 (2022) and 13.8 (2023).
It seems like lost in the BTJ summer camp hype has been Christian Kirk. In his first 7 games of 2023, Kirk had four top-25 WR finishes. If you take out his first week where somehow he only got 3 targets and one catch, in the first 12 weeks he was a top-20 WR in points per game. pic.twitter.com/u1QxB7OOcM
— Shane McCormick (@SMcCormick_FF) August 19, 2024
Ridley ate into Kirk's red zone targets in a big way last season, but I think we see Kirk bounce back this year and finish as the top target earner in this offense as Lawrence leans on him and Evan Engram to keep the chains moving.
Brian Thomas Jr. is an impressive rookie who should be a nice compliment on the outside but shouldn't command the same target percentage as Ridley did, and Gabe Davis isn't much of a threat to do anything other than run down the field and keep the safeties honest.
Kirk is a smaller receiver, so staying healthy will be the key to his success this season. But as long as he's out there, I think he's the WR1 for this offense and a nice bargain at this ADP if he comes close to repeating his 2022 success.
Terry McLaurin - Washington Commanders
Consensus ADP: 74
Do I think the Commanders will be good this season? No, not at all - I have them winning five, maybe six games. But I do think that Terry McLaurin could be in store for the best season of his career with Jayden Daniels at QB and Kliff Kingsbury calling the plays.
McLaurin enters his sixth season in the NFL with four straight 1000-yard seasons, however, the Ohio State product has never caught more than 87 passes in a season. He's had to deal with some pretty terrible quarterback play for most of his career and while he's been targeted an average of 121 times per season, many of those targets were simply not catchable balls.
Now is Daniels a major upgrade over McLaurin's former QBs? I don't think he even has to be all that much better for McLaurin to go off.
Daniels has an elite ability to scramble and extend plays - something that is going to create more opportunities for McLaurin to improvise and get open. Daniels's accuracy has looked good in preseason, but we also have to consider that his OC, Kingsbury, is going to do everything he can to scheme him a lot of safe throws as well.
Here's every Terry McLaurin preseason route in the new Kliff Kingsbury offense:
McLaurin's career average route depth (the distance from the line of scrimmage at which the initial cut in his route comes) is 9.4 yards. This preseason, it's 6.2 yards. https://t.co/Gqq8evav7c pic.twitter.com/FwlTO5cmiF
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024
You want your rookie quarterback making simple reads and having fewer choices - you don't ask them to break down defenses pre-snap or make a lot of audibles. Look for McLaurin to get peppered with targets on shorter routes this season, which in PPR formats could be a huge increase in production if he pushes up toward 100 catches.
Let's face it - rookie quarterbacks tend to hone in on their top receiver more often than veterans, and frankly - who else does Daniels have to look for in this wide receiver room? Right now, Olamide Zaccheaus is the projected WR2, as Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown have struggled to separate themselves in camp.
It might not be pretty, but garbage time stats count the same as any others. I expect Washington to trail in a lot of games this season and for Daniels and McLaurin to post really big fantasy numbers trying to play catch-up.
Jameson Williams - Detroit Lions
Consensus ADP: 119
I want a piece of this Detroit Lions offense on just about every one of my fantasy teams this season. You really can't go wrong with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta in the early rounds, as those two should continue to suck up a huge chunk of Jared Goff's targets each week. But is this the year we finally see Jameson Williams break out and establish himself as a reliable third option for Goff in this offense?
Williams is just 23 years old and a former first-round pick who has only scratched the surface of his talent so far in his NFL career. Let's not forget that he only played in six games during his rookie year due to injury and then missed the first four games of last season due to a gambling suspension.
Williams has the speed and big play ability to take the top off defenses - and Detroit needs him to be able to stretch the field as LaPorta (ADOT of 7.1) and St. Brown (ADOT of 7.9) mainly operate underneath from their tight end and slot positions.
Williams had the highest ADOT on the team last season at 15.6 and a 15.6% share of the team's air yards despite only being targeted 41 times in 12 games. With Josh Reynolds out of the picture (40-608-5) last season, Williams has just Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones as competition for the remaining targets. The talent gap between Williams and those two is significant.
There's no logical reason why Jameson Williams can't be 2022 Brandon Aiyuk. pic.twitter.com/lEGDoADFcH
— Chuck Bass (@ChuckFBass) August 21, 2024
Williams also had three carries in the running game for 29 yards and a touchdown. I think Detroit will continue to scheme the ball for him on some reverses to utilize his blazing speed and keep him involved.
At this price, I'm willing to take a shot on an ultra-talented player on a very good offense who should see more opportunities this season.
Josh Downs - Indianapolis Colts
Consensus ADP: 186
It's a shame that Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain in training camp because he looked great and was poised for a big year as Anthony Richardson's second option behind Michael Pittman Jr. in Indianapolis.
But now we get a major discount on a potential breakout player who may only miss one or two games to start the season. Downs is an undersized receiver at just 5-foot-9, but he showed an impressive ability to make big plays last year with Gardner Minshew under center. He's well suited for his role in the slot, with Pittman Jr. and rookie Adonai Mitchell lining up outside.
We don't have much of a sample size to go off with Richardson in terms of his throwing ability, but his athleticism at the position should help this offense keep the chains moving. I would expect Downs's target share to increase from 16% last year as he establishes himself as a reliable target.
This late in the draft I am okay gambling on a player who might miss a few games but is as talented as Downs and who has the type of opportunity that he has. He's going later than TE2s and some WR4s, but this is a player who, if healthy, could emerge as a reliable WR3 or flex play weekly.
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