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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 9 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for this upcoming week.
The year of the backup quarterback is, unfortunately, upon us. Possibly 10 signal-callers who did not start Week 1 will be under center for teams in Week 9. That's impacting some of the wide receivers that are usually locked in fantasy lineups.
It also stems beyond the passing game. If quarterbacks can't connect with receivers, the running game also suffers.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 9, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 9 of the NFL season.
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Justin Herbert at New York Jets
Not to enter the debate about whether Justin Herbert is a "social media quarterback" or not but he's slinging the ball with a broken finger.
However... (You thought I was going to debate that he isn't a social media quarterback, didn't you?)
He's been hyper-efficient against bad defenses. His five 20-point performances came against Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Chicago. Two of those teams rank in the bottom eight in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings aren't far behind and Tennessee is middle of the pack. Las Vegas is actually good in that metric. Sure enough, Herbert struggled to pass in that game but salvaged his fantasy numbers with two rushing touchdowns.
When matched up against two teams in the top five of that category, he's failed to reach the sought-after 20-point mark. Three of his four interceptions also came in those contests. The New York Jets aren't quite as strong as Dallas and Kansas City but still rank in the top 10. If Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are able to take Keenan Allen out of the game, Herbert could have a long night in the Big Apple.
Alexander Mattison at Atlanta
The Minnesota Vikings have to lean on their running game more with Kirk Cousins (Achilles) now on injured reserve, right? The coaching staff asking fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall to attempt 38 passes (Cousins' weekly average) isn't a winning recipe.
At the same time, it's obvious why Kevin O'Connell is dialing up passing plays whenever he's given the chance. The YPC from Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers has been horrendous, even with the big boys up front being graded as the second-best run-blocking offensive line. Against Green Bay, one of the worst rushing defenses, the duo rushed for exactly two yards per carry. Mattison actually brought that average down.
In a world where Cousins is still healthy, Mattison would be a sit across the board. He's facing a run defense that allows the second-fewest points per game to backs in half-PPR formats. The argument for him to be in lineups is that he's seemingly due for a few more touches. As bad as he was against the Packers, he still out-touched Akers 17 to 10. It is still (for now) his backfield. There's just no guarantee he will do anything notable.
Tony Pollard at Philadelphia
In the offseason, when the brain trust in Dallas let offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and running back Ezekiel Elliott walk, the idea was to shape the offense around a strong running game to let their dominant defense rest on the sidelines.
Then, they brought in wide receiver Brandin Cooks and did not sign a second dependable running back. What they were wishing for and the managerial decisions they made did not compute. Still, they pushed forward, depending on Tony Pollard for the opening few weeks of the season.
| Tony Pollard | Weeks 1-3 | Weeks 4-8 |
| Carries Per Game | 20.66 | 11.5 |
| Yards Per Carry | 4.39 | 3.58 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 88 | 39.75 |
| Receptions Per Game | 4 | 3.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
There's been more of a reliance put on Dak Prescott in recent weeks, including the coaching staff letting the quarterback cook the Los Angeles Rams for 304 yards and a side of four touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had the best game of his career and the Cowboys never let the Rams sniff the chance of a victory.
If that continues, Pollard could be in for another down performance. It doesn't help that the way to beat the Eagles is through the passing game. Philadelphia allows the fewest fantasy points per game and rushing yards to opposing running backs.
Aaron Jones vs. Los Angeles Rams
That was following Week 1 when Aaron Jones pulled his hamstring. He claimed he could have come back in the game. Three missed games and a handful of unproductive contests later, Jones said prior to Sunday's game against Minnesota that it was the best he's felt since the injury. He logged over 50 percent of the snaps for the first time all season but only tallied 46 yards on 11 touches.
It's impacting the entire offense. Since Week 3, the Packers haven't scored a touchdown in the first half. They fall behind and then throw, throw, throw, and throw some more. Jones and A.J. Dillon benefit from that a smidge but a more balanced rush/pass attack would further aid fantasy numbers for the backs.
The Los Angeles Rams rank in the top 10 for fantasy points to opposing running backs. It's not a matchup that frightens fantasy managers but this offense is too inept to trust right now. There's not a single option on the roster that managers are excited to start right now.
Puka Nacua / Cooper Kupp at Green Bay
Matthew Stafford was throwing to two guys on the Rams: Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Both wideouts averaged a 33% target share in the month of October. This is the Rams' offense.
But what happens when the man dropping dimes is sidelined with an injury? Matthew Stafford suffered a UCL sprain on the thumb of his throwing hand and will likely miss Sunday's game against the Packers. 27-year-old Brett Rypien replaced the Super Bowl Champion and essentially played a quarter of football against Dallas. Cooper Kupp was targeted five times and snagged just one of them for five yards. Puka Nacua only saw Rypien's second attempt, which went for 13 yards.
Nacua's 753 air yards ranks sixth among all wide receivers in the league. Stafford has been hitting the rookie frequently on targets of 20-30 yards. Backup quarterbacks typically don't take those shots as often as the starters. Their best friends are checkdowns or wide receivers that shine near the line of scrimmage.
The Packers get beat more often on the ground than through the air. With a backup quarterback under center and two capable, veteran running backs behind him, Sean McVay could opt to lean on Darrell Henderson Jr. and Royce Freeman to move the chains. Kupp, as evidenced by the series of targets from Rypien, should be okay. Nacua, on the other hand, is a bigger concern. Neither is a sit because of the sheer volume but either could easily bust.
Jordan Addison at Atlanta
Just like Kupp and Nacua, Jordan Addison will be playing with an unproven quarterback under center in Week 9. With Kirk Cousins out for the season, Nick Mullens still on injured reserve, and recent addition Joshua Dobbs not ready to play for a new team, fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall gets the call.
When a quarterback gets their first start, coaches tend to lean on the running game to set up play-action and easier throws. The problem is that the Vikings statistically have the second-worst rushing offense.
Despite getting torched by Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins last week, the Falcons are still one of the better defenses against the pass in the NFL. This is shaping up to be a game where the Vikings struggle in all facets of the offense and Addison's stat line suffers. The first-round rookie has scored at least one touchdown in every game since Justin Jefferson suffered his hamstring injury. If you choose to stay in the flames, I can't blame you. He is still a WR3 for the week, but without a touchdown, it could be a less-than-spectacular fantasy score.
Josh Downs at Carolina
The Carolina Panthers' pass defense may not actually be that good, but for fantasy purposes, they are a matchup to monitor. Because the run defense is so bad, wide receivers and quarterbacks aren't racking up the points that fantasy managers crave.
| Team | Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (RBs Only) |
| Denver Broncos | 130.87 |
| Carolina Panthers | 126.85 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 120.37 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 115.42 |
| New York Giants | 110.12 |
With Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss splitting time in the backfield, the Colts may not need to throw much to win. Moss is still second in the league with 589 rushing yards to date (and he missed Week 1). Taylor is averaging 85 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. With Gardner Minshew's pension for turning the ball over (he has nine turnovers in his three recent starts), the coaching staff may lean even further on the running game to bust the losing streak.
Rookie Josh Downs has been a revelation since Minshew became the QB1 in Indianapolis. Outside of Week 2, he has at least five catches in every game where Minshew played a majority of the snaps. He's also scored in two of the last three games. He's not a sit this week but there is a decent chance that the game script favors the run game and one of Downs or Michael Pittman Jr. has an off game.
D.J. Moore at New Orleans
D.J. Moore is the WR7 on the season, although he's a bit lower if you look at the weekly averages. Largely, that's due to his 49-point explosion on Thursday Night Football against Washington in Week 5. In the three weeks since, coinciding with Tyson Bagent manning the offense, Moore has underwhelmed. His 22-point average from Weeks 1-5 has been cut in half.
Bagent was named the starting quarterback once again earlier this week. The undrafted rookie was a fun story when he was first thrust into action but defenses have figured him out now that there's game tape to review.
The Chargers still are the worst pass defense by a wide margin (297.4 yards compared to Jacksonville's 263.5 coming into Week 9). While Bagent did toss for 232 yards, only 55 went to Moore. Now, he'll have to travel to New Orleans and face a much stingier Saints pass defense. Moore is going to have to break off a long run after a catch to find production this week.
Marquise Brown at Cleveland
Marquise Brown picked up another touchdown in Week 9 but his overall numbers are trending downward. Hollywood has stayed under 50 yards in three straight games, hasn't topped a 70% catch rate since Week 4, and is averaging just 4.25 catches per game in that window.
That was with Joshua Dobbs under center. He's now a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune should be the next one to take snaps, while the Cardinals wait for Kyler Murray to be activated off of the PUP list.
There are several reasons to believe that Brown's mediocre play will continue into the matchup against the Browns. Cleveland is one of the best defenses in the league against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. Gabe Davis, Rashee Rice, and Tyler Lockett are all better options, with Brown outside of the WR3 range. Be ready for the rebound, however, when Murray returns to the lineup in Week 10.
Taysom Hill vs. Chicago
Taysom Hill has been the TE2 over the last three weeks and he's doing it in the rushing, receiving, and passing games, just as Taysom Hill does. His nine carries in Week 8 tied for a season-high mark. His two touchdowns came on those touches. He completed a 44-yard pass to Rashid Shaheed and he caught one pass for 14 yards (which is admittedly a low total based on recent weeks).
The reception total is a concern for Hill. In the two weeks prior, the 33-year-old caught 11 passes for 99 yards, in addition to the rushing and passing production. Starting tight end Juwan Johnson was inactive for those games. In his first game back last week against Indianapolis, Hill's snap counts dropped to 44 percent. Against Houston and Jacksonville, Hill lined up as a tight end or wide receiver for an average of 46 plays. Against the Colts, that number dropped to just 17 snaps.
The ceiling is high, sure, but the floor is also very low. If you're a gambling fantasy manager, take the plunge.
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