Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Sam Darnold, Ollie Gordon II, Kalif Raymond, Kenyon Sadiq, Tyler Higbee

September 30, 2026

Hayden's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 4 of 2026. He looks at surprising performances from Sam Darnold, Ollie Gordon II, Kalif Raymond, Kenyon Sadiq, Tyler Higbee

After a week in which offensive scoring was down across the board, the NFL's superstars sparked a rebound in Week 3. Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all scored more than 30 half-PPR points, delivering hugely for both their fantasy managers and their teams.

Everyone already knew to start these studs, though. The players who faced low expectations but produced big numbers are those who need scrutiny. Discerning which of these surprising overperformers are worth starting in fantasy leagues is the key task that arises every week of the season.

Therefore, each week, I will break down five of the most surprising outings from the previous week. Should we treat these players' stat lines as fact, portending further success over the rest of the season? Are they fiction, leading fantasy managers astray? We will begin this week's analysis by investigating the starting quarterback of the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Week 3 stats: 31-of-45 for 379 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions, one carry for five yards -- overall QB2

Seattle traveled across the country last week to take on Washington, but the game didn't start as planned. The Seahawks totaled just 20 yards on their first three drives, and a fumble set up a Commanders touchdown. Seattle never led after being put on its back foot early, and they eventually fell 33-31.

Sam Darnold accrued a large stat line in the losing effort. He set a new career-high in passing yards, and his 45 pass attempts were his most in a game since 2019. His two interceptions significantly hurt the team's chances, especially the fourth-quarter pick-six that gave the Commanders a 9-point lead.

KAIN MEDRANO PICKS OFF SAM DARNOLD FOR A PICK SIX!@Commanders extend their late lead

📺: FOX/FOX One pic.twitter.com/R4di9f5PoL

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 27, 2026

This was Darnold's first real game of the season after injuring his glute in the first quarter of Week 1. His 2025 campaign was unspectacular from a fantasy perspective, as he ranked 22nd in both fantasy points per game (14.7) and per dropback (0.49) among qualifying QBs. Darnold can post solid passing numbers, but his lack of rushing production hurts his outlook.

Moreover, the Seahawks had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL over the first two weeks. Admittedly, that was with backup passer Drew Lock in command, but they ranked third-to-last in pass plays in 2025. While Seattle's backfield has struggled so far, the team wants to establish the running game better than they did on Sunday, when they totaled just 18 attempts for 44 yards.

Darnold certainly turned in a strong fantasy performance, but it was an outlier compared to his previous body of work. The game script, plus ineffectiveness on the ground, forced Seattle away from their ideal run-pass balance. Darnold is a competent QB, but he is not an ideal starting fantasy quarterback.

Verdict: Fiction

Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins

Week 3 stats: 17 carries for 41 yards and one touchdown, three catches for 14 yards -- overall RB12

There is an election for a seat in the Tennessee House of Representatives this year where no candidate is on the ballot. The incumbent sadly passed away in April, and no one received enough signatures to qualify for the ballot this November. The winner will be whoever receives the most write-in votes.

This strange political story is reminiscent of the 0-3 Dolphins. With star running back De'Von Achane suffering a torn ACL on Sunday, Miami is left with unproven players at every offensive skill position. Someone will have to emerge in the backfield, though, and right now Ollie Gordon II is the best bet.

Besides Achane's three carries before exiting, Gordon accounted for every RB rushing attempt for the Dolphins against the Chiefs. Granted, he averaged just 2.4 yards per carry, and he also benefited from teammate Jaylen Wright missing the game with a stinger and a foot issue. Still, Gordon figures to be the RB1 in Miami for at least the near future, for whatever that is worth.

Ollie Gordon II gets the Dolphins on the board 🗣️@KCvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/LLDxI8lIHN

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026

Now in his second year, Gordon was quiet as a rookie in 2025. He had just one game with double-digit rushing attempts, and he averaged 2.8 true yards per carry for the season. The Dolphins will take whatever they can get at this point, though, and Gordon's immense 2023 season as a sophomore at Oklahoma State perhaps gives him hope as the team's workhorse.

Gordon will probably not be efficient, but he should see enough volume to be in the low-end RB2 or FLEX conversation unless Wright surges upon his return.

Verdict: Fact

Kalif Raymond, WR, Chicago Bears

Week 3 stats: six catches for 90 yards and one touchdown -- overall WR8

Chicago entered the season with a lot of hype surrounding their passing attack. With a rising star at QB in Caleb Williams, as well as plenty of young weapons like Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and tight end Colston Loveland, many Bears were valuable commodities in fantasy drafts.

Yet Kailf Raymond has been the surprise of the year in Chicago, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers. Raymond led the team in catches, targets, and receiving yards in Week 1, and he again led the team's wide receivers in catches in Week 2. Still, his showing on Monday versus Philadelphia was his best thus far, despite Williams missing the contest with a hamstring strain.

KEENUM FINDS RAYMOND FOR A 41-YARD TD 🐻@PHIvsCHI on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Q3YWUsEgp1

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2026

Raymond currently ranks first on the team in receptions and receiving yards, and he trails only Burden in targets. Raymond's snap share was 75 percent in Week 3, behind only Odunze among the team's WRs. His 80 routes on the season are also comparable to Odunze's 91, Loveland's 89, and Burden's 84.

Raymond has been in the league since 2016, but he has never finished as a top-50 WR in fantasy. Last season with the Lions, he caught just 24 passes all season over 15 games. Fantasy managers have been rightfully skeptical of Raymond due to his seemingly random breakout. Three straight games at or near the top of the team's receiving numbers is a hard trend to ignore, though.

Williams's absence in Week 3 failed to limit Raymond, who succeeded with veteran Case Keenum throwing him the ball. The stability Raymond has shown makes him a worthy waiver wire pickup and possible FLEX, although the threat of Odunze, Burden, and/or Loveland demanding more volume is very real.

Verdict: Fact, for now

Kenyon Sadiq, TE, New York Jets

Week 3 stats: seven catches for 105 yards and one touchdown -- overall TE4

The Jets made former Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq the first of his position off the board in this year's draft when they took him 16th overall. They clearly wanted to get their new toy involved early too; their first touchdown of the season was a three-yard Sadiq run in Week 1 versus the Titans.

It took until Week 3, though, for Sadiq to really show out. His numbers against the Lions on Sunday easily exceeded his total production in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Sadiq also scored his first NFL receiving touchdown on an incredible diving grab in the second quarter. His eight targets ultimately ranked second on the team behind only star WR Garrett Wilson.

first career receiving TD for @KenyonSadiq was 👌

📺: #NYJvsDET on FOX pic.twitter.com/RUWEPlgm7W

— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 27, 2026

This stat line was a bit deceptive, though. Crucially, the absences of WR2 Adonai Mitchell, rookie wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., and tight end Mason Taylor freed up more looks for Sadiq in a game where the Jets largely played from behind. Mitchell in particular accounted for 12 targets in the team's Week 2 matchup with the Packers.

Additionally, Sadiq's snap share of 58 percent on Sunday was competitive with those of fellow tight ends Jeremy Ruckert (42%) and Jelani Woods (38%). Sadiq also ran 25 routes, more on par with temporary WR3 Sterling Shepard (24) than team leaders Wilson and Isaiah Williams (43 and 42, respectively).

Sadiq is a skilled player, and he should emerge by the end of the season as a valuable fantasy option. His short-term value, though, depends on his teammates' availability. Mitchell and Taylor are considered "week-to-week," placing their chances for Sunday in major jeopardy. Thus, Sadiq is an intriguing option due to his undeniable talent, despite the other concerns.

Verdict: Fact, assuming Mitchell and Taylor miss further time

Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams

Week 3 stats: eight catches for 62 yards and one touchdown -- overall TE7

Veteran tight end Tyler Higbee played quite sparingly to begin the season. He did not reach a 30-percent snap share in either of the first two weeks, and he totaled only two targets in those two games. He also had run just seven routes entering Week 3. Higbee was simply a non-factor in fantasy.

Suddenly, Higbee erupted on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos. His eight receptions led the team, and his 11 targets marked his most in a game since Week 4 of 2023. Higbee also had a remarkable toe-tapping grab on the sideline to help the Rams' chances on the final drive of the game.

Higbee with a HUGE catch to get the Rams closer 😮@LARvsDEN on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Akm83aZzQO

— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2026

However, Higbee, like Sadiq, thrived in a void left by teammates. Higbee was the TE4 by snaps on the Rams in each of the first two weeks. Terrance Ferguson hurt his ankle against Denver, though, and Colby Parkinson sprained his AC joint. Factor in a missing star receiver in Puka Nacua and 55 team passing attempts, and the ingredients were all there for a Higbee renaissance.

While Ferguson is expected to miss further action, both Nacua and Parkinson have a chance to return in Week 4. If either does, Higbee slides back in the pecking order. Also, QB Matthew Stafford is unlikely to uncork that many throws again, as he had not reached 50 since 2023 until Sunday night. Higbee is far more likely to return to irrelevance than remain in the spotlight.

Verdict: Fiction

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