RADIO
Welcome RotoBallers! Forgive me as I'm in a bit of a salty mood. After crushing over the weekend, I had a very rough Monday night. First off, I was busy making dinner and was unaware that the Atlanta-San Diego game was canceled. Strike one. I also had zero Boston or Washington hitters in my lineup, who both went up big early. Strike two. And despite having faded Gibson, I decided to roll with him as my SP in my big money entry. In case you were unaware, he gave up eight earned runs, and again he did it early. Strike three. My night was over before 8 PM EST.
So yeah, I'm in a little pain. But you "get knocked off the horse, you just gotta get back on". So saddle 'em up. I'm gonna break this filly, even with us getting what might be an unlucky number of 13 games in this main slate. 'Cause I can tell you right now, I'm not spending up on pitcher tonight!
Yu Darvish is a hard fade for me. He has ten earned runs in his last two outings and has not pitched more than six innings since June 9th. He is facing a Braves team that has the fifth most HRs. And he's going to tip the salary scales at $11,200? No thanks. So who do I like tonight? Read below to find, as I provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 7/20/2021.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Luis Garcia HOU vs CLE ($9,600)
Garica brings a lot to the table. It starts with his top-line numbers. A solid 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 97 SO in less than 86 IPs speak for themselves.
I also like his advanced metrics as well. Opposing batters are only hitting .206 against him and even those that get on base are being left there more than 80% of the time. His HR/FB ratio is barely double-digits (10.1%) and he has a not-terrible GB% of nearly 36%.
And it's not like Cleveland is the toughest opponent in the world either. Cleveland is batting .230, tying them with the Cardinals for fourth-worst in the league. He is proportionally more on some of the other DFS sites, and I'll take the savings that FanDuel is offering on Garcia.
GPP Potential Alternate Play
Kyle Muller Atl vs SDP ($6,700)
But if Garcia doesn't interest you, let me introduce you to Kyle Muller. Part of the reason I'm fading Darvish is I like the other side of this matchup even more.
In his last two major league starts, Muller has gone more than five innings in both and struck out a combined 16 batters. He has a 3.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. It's a limited sample size, but he has a k/9 ratio of 11.49. Much of that can be attributed to Muller having one of the better sliders of any rookie this season. See for yourself....
Last 2 starts for Braves pitcher Kyle Muller
36 sliders thrown
11 outs
5 strikeouts
0 hits allowed
Joey Votto struck out twice on it yesterday pic.twitter.com/putqaxL7bV
— Sports Info Solutions - Baseball (@sis_baseball) June 28, 2021
The Padres are coming in hot with their bats ablaze since the All-Star break, so there is risk with this pick. But if Muller continues to have a 40+ GB% and a 5.9% HR/FB ratio, he should easily shut San Diego down. And at $6700, I'm willing to take the risk.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Trey Mancini- 1B/OF BAL @ TBR ($3200)
Mancini is a sneaky play as he has not hit a HR since the All-Star break and is $100 less than the suddenly hot JT Realmuto. But he has five hits in the last three games. He has a .301 BABIP against left-handers this year which validates his .939 OPS against them this season. Mancini will be facing Shane McLanahan and his 4.05 ERA today. McLanahan is left-handed. You make the connection.
Ozzie Albies - 2B ATL vs SDP ($3700)
I told you I liked the other side of this match-up, didn't I? Albies is another part of the Braves I want tonight.Despite 15 HRs this season, I'm not grabbing Albies for his power stroke and his upside. I'm grabbing him for his floor. In his last 25 games, Albies has just one game where he failed to give us some FanDuel fantasy points. The fact that he is hitting .333 against Darvish doesn't hurt the case either.
Eduardo Escobar - 3B ARI vs PIT ($3000)
Escobar makes for a very affordable option against the recently struggling Aaron Nola. Nola is still striking out opposing hitters, but he has given up 17 ER in his last 19 IP. That's not good. Escobar meanwhile has gone long each of his last two games and is now averaging nearly 11 FanDuel FPPG. That's incredible production at just 3K.
Trevor Story - SS COL vs SEA ($3800)
Stroy is not having a great season. The pitcher he is opposing, Marco Gonzales, is not either. Perhaps Marco is pitching with his eyes closed, because his ratios are a not-so swimmingly 1.46 WHIP and a bloated 5.88 ERA. I know Story was also a disappointment in the HR Derby this time last week. But with Gonzales posting an HR/9 rate of 2.38, and that's at all altitudes not just the thin air of Coors, I would not be surprised to see Story jack one out tonight.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Nelson Cruz - OF, MIN @ CWS ($3700)
When will Father Time finally catch up to the 41-year-old Cruz? Your guess is as good as mine as he absolutely continues to rake. He has scored 20 or more FD fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He now has 19 jacks but unlike some of his other fellow power hitters, he is also hitting .299 and even has three swipes as well! He will be facing Dallas Keuchel, who he has hit four souvenirs against already this season. Let's just say I made Cruz my cover player for a reason.
Bryce Harper - OF, PHI @ NYY ($3900)
Harper meanwhile can't seem to catch a break. He gets traded from the Nationals and they win their first World Series. He's now one of the few reliable hitters on the Phillies. But the Phillies can't seem to field a healthy lineup even two days in a row. And trust me, I'm not exactly crying for a guy who makes about $60K for an at-bat. However, despite the lack of talent around Harper, he is at least providing some value for his gaudy contract. He is still hitting .283 with 15 HRs and eight stolen bases.
And I've discussed Domingo German, the pitcher Harper is facing today, before and in not such glowing terms. But when you have a 1.23 WHIP and a 4.72 ERA, it's not hard to criticize German. Don't be surprised if we Harper do something like this tonight....
Bryce Harper CRUSHED this HR ?
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/fKFjovAh66
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) June 22, 2021
Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU vs CLE ($3500)
I was originally going to include Yordan Alvarez here as he went long again last night. However, he is listed as day-to-day and might not play tonight. No worries. We can easily swap one Houston big bat for another. Love me some Kyle Tucker tonight. Tucker is having an extremely solid year with 15 HRs and .270 average. He's slugging an impressive .492, but that will happen when you are hitting a HARD% of nearly 41%.
He's been even more impressive against right-handers with a slugging percentage of .526 and an ISO of .234. Against young right-hander Tristan McKenzie and his 5.47 ERA, that just isn't fair!
Good luck with your entries!
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