RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 16 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 11/12/2022. He previews each game from the English Premier League, picking bets and a player to watch out for in fantasy
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Not a vintage week last weekend but we came away with a small profit after bagging four match picks and a parlay. It could have been so much better if Manchester United didn't revert back to their early season form and Wolves wasn't reduced to ten men for the second straight week. But a profit is a profit and we head into the final weekend before the World Cup looking to make it three consecutive profitable matchweeks.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 64-72
- Total picks: 57-72-8
- Parlays: 6-17
- ROI: 96.97% (-3.49 units)
Saturday, November 12th, 2022
Brentford (+1899) at Manchester City (-663) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 1 Brentford
Last weekend, for the first time this season, Manchester City only won by one goal and scored fewer than three goals in a home game. They did have to play for over an hour with ten men but needed a controversial injury-time penalty to maintain their 100% home record.
Brentford has yet to win on their travels, with four draws and three defeats. The 17 goals they've conceded away from home is the fourth most in the league and they have let in 11 in their last three games.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Manchester City over 2.5 goals & Brentford over 0.5 goals (+210) 0.75 units
Despite their awayday woes, Brentford has scored in five of their seven away games while City has only kept three clean sheets in their seven home games (one in their last four). But last weekend was the first time this season City failed to score three times at home and given they were a man down from the 26th minute, it's understandable why.
Player to watch: Julian Alvarez
We backed Alvarez to step into Erling Haaland's boots and find the net last week, which he did. Haaland is a doubt again this week and Alvarez has shown enough threat that he could start with Haaland or instead of him and he once again provides a good option to find a goal.
Everton (+165) at Bournemouth (+190) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 1 Everton
Bournemouth's six-game unbeaten streak has now been followed by a four-game losing run following last weekend's 4-3 defeat at Leeds United. It was the second straight game Bournemouth lost after leading by two goals and no team has conceded more than Bournemouth (32) this season.
Everton's in the midst of a poor run of form themselves, with just one win in their last six games. They have just one away win this season (at Southampton) and just five goals on their travels. But only four teams have conceded fewer away goals than Everton (8).
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Under 3.5 total goals & under 10.5 total corners (+115) 0.5 units
Everton has been solid defensively, even if they do struggle to score and I'm sure Bournemouth will be keen to tighten things up after conceding nine goals in their last three games. Bournemouth's 51 corners taken is the third-fewest while only seven teams have taken fewer than Everton (66).
The two teams rank first and second for corners conceded which has inflated the prices on the over-corners market but this is set to be a pretty disinteresting game so I'm happy to take the under on total corners.
Player to watch: Marcus Tavernier
Tavernier has started all 14 of Bournemouth's games this season and is tied-first with three assists while scoring one goal himself. He leads the team in shots (20) and shot-creating actions (31) and has taken 38 of their 51 corners this season. He represents a very solid DFS play this weekend.
Southampton (+982) at Liverpool (-368) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 3 - 0 Southampton
Liverpool picked up their first away win of the season last weekend, beating a depleted Tottenham team 2-1. The previous weekend, they lost their unbeaten home record, losing to Leeds United by the same scoreline.
Southampton replaced Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl with Nathan Jones following their 4-1 home defeat to Newcastle United last weekend. That loss saw them slip into the relegation zone and they have now picked up just five points from their last nine games.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Mo Salah to score anytime & over 2.5 total goals (+100) 1 unit
As much as I expect Liverpool to win, I don't trust them. Throw in the new manager situation at Southampton and I'm avoiding the moneylines in this game. But I still expect goals with Liverpool ranking third in goals scored at home (18) and only three teams have conceded more than Southampton (24) this season.
Salah's brace last weekend made it five goals in his last four games in all competitions and he's finally looking like the player we know he is capable of being.
Player to watch: Mo Salah
As mentioned, Salah has been finding the back of the net regularly again lately. Since joining Liverpool, he's faced Southampton at home in the EPL five times, scoring or assisting in each game. He's totaled five goals and two assists in those five games.
Crystal Palace (+145) at Nottingham Forest (+220) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Crystal Palace
Forest finds themselves rooted to the foot of the table following last weekend's 2-2 draw against Fulham. Their 1-0 win against Liverpool seems like a long time ago but they have at least shown signs of life at home, with eight points from their seven home games and being unbeaten in their last three home games.
Palace picked up their first away win of the season last Sunday, beating West Ham United 2-1. It was also the first time this season that Palace scored in the second half of an away game. In their six away games, they have conceded nine goals but seven of them came in two games (four at Manchester City and three at Everton).
Betting pick: Half-time/full-time - Draw/Crystal Palace (+545) 0.5 units
I'm expecting a tight game with all three outcomes very much in play and I wouldn't be surprised by an of them. But I'm going to hedge that Palace repeat last weekend's feat and find a way to win in the second half.
Forest has been level at halftime in three of their seven home games and has been outscored three times in the second half on three occasions. Palace has gone in at the break all-square in three of their six away games and last weekend's late winner could give them enough confidence to go on and win this game in the second half.
Player to watch: Eberechi Eze
Wilfried Zaha might be Palace's top scorer this season (six) but Eze picked up his team-leading third assist last weekend when setting up Zaha's opener. He also leads the team in shot-creating actions (45) and is a lesser-priced option than Zaha with more than enough opportunities to return positive numbers.
Leeds United (+425) at Tottenham (-153) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 Leeds United
Tottenham's defeat to Nottingham Forest on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup set off some alarm bells. While I don't put much value in that particular cup competition, it was the seventh straight game in all competitions in which they conceded first and Head Coach Antonio Conte raised some concerns when stating Harry Kane was taken off after an hour as he was "fatigued".
Leeds backed up their 2-1 win at Liverpool with a 4-3 victory against Bournemouth, coming from 3-1 down to win. It was the first time this season they had won back-to-back league games and their win at Liverpool was the first time they'd won on the road.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes & under 4.5 (+125) 0.5 units
Tottenham's habit of conceding first will need to end if they are to get out of this little slump. But there's every chance another slow start could see them fall behind again. And with injuries to Son Heung-min and Richarlison leaving them both doubtful to feature, 'fatigued' Kane will have to take on the goal-scoring burden again.
The bookmakers are expecting a lot of goals here and while I expect both teams to find the net, I don't think we see more than three. Leeds has yet to keep a clean sheet on the road but has scored in four of their six away games. Tottenham has scored in all seven home games but only kept two clean sheets.
Player to watch: Dejan Kulusevski
Kulusevski made his return from injury last weekend, setting up Kane's goal just two minutes after coming on as a sub. They need him more than ever with three defeats in their last four EPL games, especially with Son missing too. Despite only playing eight league games this season, he's tied with Ivan Perisic for the most assists (four).
Leicester City (+280) at West Ham United (+107) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 0 - 1 Leicester City
West Ham slipped to defeat at home to Crystal Palace last Sunday and got dumped out of the Carabao Cup by Championship side Blackburn Rovers on Wednesday. They now have just one win from their last five league games and only scored four goals in that span.
Leicester's resurgence restarted last weekend as they beat Everton 2-0 and put their 1-0 loss against Manchester City behind them. That defeat is their only one during their last five games and the only time they've conceded in this spell.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Leicester City (+175) 1 unit
Leicester's form has taken a complete 180 while West Ham looks like heading in the opposite direction. Last weekend's results saw Leicester climb above West Ham in the league and I was surprised by the disparity of the odds between the two teams. I'll be looking to take advantage by backing the in-form away team while hedging against the draw.
Player to watch: James Maddison
Maddison was called up to England's World Cup squad as expected on Thursday and he's been the catalyst for Leciester's recent upturn in form. He leads the team in goals (six), assists (4) and shot-creating actions (57).
Chelsea (+215) at Newcastle United (+136) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 2 Chelsea
Newcastle cemented their top-four credentials with a 4-1 win at Southampton last weekend, their fourth consecutive league win. And if it wasn't for conceding a 98th-minute goal at Liverpool earlier in the season, they'd be the league's only unbeaten team.
The Graham Potter honeymoon period seems to be well and truly over. Chelsea's 1-0 defeat at home to Arsenal last weekend made it back-to-back league defeats for them, the first time that's happened since December 2020. It also marked four league games without a win.
Betting pick: Team total goals - Newcastle United over 1.5 goals (+128) 0.75 units
Newcastle can't stop scoring with 20 goals in their last seven league games and last weekend made it back-to-back league games in which they've scored four goals (the second time they've achieved that during this run). Chelsea has looked vulnerable defensively lately with five goals conceded in their last three games and they were fortunate not to lose by a greater margin last weekend.
Player to watch: Bruno Guimaraes
Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson have been deservedly getting the headlines lately, but the enigmatic Brazilian midfielder should not be overlooked. He's quickly become a fan favorite at the club and has chipped in with three goals and two assists in 11 games this season (all of which have come in his last six games).
Arsenal (-180) at Wolves (+558) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 2 Arsenal
Wolves finally appointed a replacement to Bruno Lage, naming former Spain and Real Madrid boss Julen Lopetegui as their new Head Coach. He doesn't start in the role until Monday and he's likely to be taking charge of the team with the fewest goals scored (eight) and sitting in the relegation zone.
Arsenal's 1-0 win at Chelsea didn't reflect their dominance in the game and better finishing would have seen them rival the 5-0 win they had against Nottingham Forest the previous week. A much-changed side lost at home to Brighton in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday but there will likely be ten changes to that team for this weekend's fixture so I'm not putting much weight into that game.
Betting pick: To win to nil - Arsenal (+174) 0.5 units
Arsenal's last four games have seen them win three without conceding and they have kept five clean sheets in seven away games this season. They've scored in all seven away games while Wolves have just five goals in their seven home games, failing to score in three of them.
Player to watch: Gabriel Jesus
Jesus remains Arsenal's joint top-scorer with five goals, despite failing to find the net in his last five games. He's had 17 shots in that span and picked up two assists so it's only a matter of time before he gets a goal and he'll want to head to the World Cup having ended his barren spell.
Sunday, November 13th, 2022
Aston Villa (+326) at Brighton (-114) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 1 Aston Villa
Brighton followed up their 4-1 win against Chelsea with a come-from-behind 3-2 victory at Wolves last weekend. Their form is so up-and-down it's hard to know what to expect since appointing Roberto De Zerbi as their Head Coach earlier this season.
Aston Villa also has a different manager than the one they started the season with and Unai Emery got his first win as Villa boss in his first full game in charge last weekend, a 3-1 win at home to Manchester United. They're still seeking their first away win of the season.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+134) 1 unit
With Villa appointing a new manager and Brighton's form being so erratic, I'll just back there being goals in this game. Brighton's last three games have seen this pick come in as they've scored eight and conceded six in those games. There have been at least three goals in Villa's last four league games.
Player to watch: Pascal Groß
Leandro Trossard has been Brighton's shining light this season, leading the team with seven goals. But Groß has five goals and two assists himself having scored in the last two games. Despite ranking fifth in shots taken (17), he's hit the target 52.9% of the time which is the highest percentage among Brighton players with at least ten total shots. His 46 shot-creating actions also rank second on the team.
Manchester United (-111) at Fulham (+301) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Manchester United
Fulham narrowly missed out on being the first team to take a point at Manchester City last weekend, losing 2-1 to a 95th-minute controversial penalty. That defeat ended their four-game unbeaten run and was their fourth loss on the road in seven games. But at home, only Newcastle United has beaten them.
Manchester United returned to their early season form, losing 3-1 at Aston Villa last weekend. They've picked up ten points in their seven away games but have a minus-six goal difference on the road as their three away wins have all been by one goal while their three defeats have been by at least two goals.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Fulham win or draw & both teams to score (+165) 0.5 units
Manchester United's three away wins have all come against teams currently in the bottom seven places in the league. My concern for Fulham is that top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović looks like missing the game with an injury. But only Everton has been able to keep a clean sheet at Fulham this season while only three teams have conceded fewer than Fulham (24).
Player to watch: Andreas Pereira
With Mitrović set to miss out, things are set up nicely for Pereira to remind his former employers of his talent. His four assists lead the team as do his 53 shot-creating actions. If you believe in the 'coming back to haunt your former team' narrative, Pereira is the perfect play this weekend.
Parlays
Total goals: Nottingham Forest/Crystal Palace, Newcastle United/Chelsea & Brighton/Aston Villa over 1.5 total goals (+142) 1.5 units
Handicap: Manchester City -1.5, Liverpool -1.5 & Leicester City +1.5 (+216) 1.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
