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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It was a rough week for the Premier League with refereeing at the center of controversies again. Chelsea was denied a clear penalty before two "human errors" by VAR denied two teams a win with Arsenal and Brighton falling victim to the ongoing lack of quality officiating. Unfortunately, it also cost us three winning picks (10%) so hopefully, we don't get another weekend like that any time soon.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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Saturday, February 18th, 2023
Arsenal (-120) at Aston Villa (+340) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 1 Arsenal
Aston Villa has lost back-to-back games, conceding seven goals in the process so will be keen to solidify things this weekend. Half of their 22 games have been against sides currently in the top ten and 13 of their 28 points have come in those games so they've certainly competed with the best teams. It's been a difficult couple of weeks for Arsenal, losing to Everton, then having a shocking decision go against them against Brentford before gifting Manchester City the points on Wednesday.
Arsenal desperately needs to win if they want to keep their title aspirations alive. They've dropped more points in the last three games than they had done in their first 19 games of the season. Between that and Aston Villa wanting to keep things tighter at the back, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair with Arsenal going back to basics somewhat. The Arsenal attacking quartet are all viable EPL plays, although there is one I'm strongly avoiding (more on him later). Ollie Watkins has scored in three straight games and is the one Villa player I'd be looking to roster as an outside shot to score this weekend.
Crystal Palace (+330) at Brentford (-110) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 0 Crystal Palace
Brentford was the benefactor to one of the VAR howlers last weekend, which allowed them to keep their unbeaten streak alive and it's now ten games without defeat in the league. The other benefactor to the VAR howlers was Palace, with Brighton being wrongly denied a goal against them last weekend. Although it helped Palace avoid defeat, it's now six EPL games without a win. They have only lost one of their last four games (away at Manchester United).
Ivan Toney remains one of the premiere forwards in FPL while Bryan Mbuemo also makes a solid attacking play as a set-piece taker too. Brentford is also a good bet for a clean sheet with their fifth-stingiest defense at home (ten goals conceded in 11 home games). Palace has only scored eight goals in ten away games so stacking a Brentford defender (like Ben Mee or Rico Henry) with goalkeeper David Raya is certainly a good idea this weekend. Palace is lacking anyone of real FPL appeal.
Fulham (+425) at Brighton (-155) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 3 - 1 Fulham
Despite the VAR mistake, Brighton made it five games unbeaten with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. They also made it 11 consecutive games in which they scored and their only two clean sheets in that run have come in their last two home games. Fulham moved level in points with this weekend's opponents by beating Nottingham Forest 2-0 but they've scored just one goal in their last three away games and drawn a blank in the last two.
Brighton is loaded with FPL options. Pervis Estupiñán has three assists in three games and scored the wrongly disallowed goal last weekend. He's one of the best defensive options moving forward. Along with Kaoru Mitoma (five goal involvements in six games) and Solly March (seven goal involvements in seven games), there's another midfielder I'm all in on this weekend (featured later on). Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrović and Willian are both carrying knocks but are viable options if healthy, while Andreas Pereira has two assists in his last five games and is a cheap option.
Southampton (+800) at Chelsea (-260) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 0 Southampton
Chelsea comes into the weekend in the midst of a four-game unbeaten streak. The last three games were all drawn and they've scored just twice in that run with goals continuing to be an issue. They also drew a blank against Dortmund in their Champions League tie on Wednesday (losing 1-0). Southampton is on the hunt for their third manager of the season and currently sits at the bottom of the table with nine defeats in their last ten games. Their only win against a current top-1o side this season was against Chelsea in Gameweek 5.
Despite the last of goals, Chelsea's new attacking duo of João Félix (who scored last week) and Mykhailo Mudryk both have looked threatening and will no doubt get better with more games played together. I expect at least one of them to have a goal involvement this weekend with both of them players I'd have no qualms about starting. I'd also be looking to slip a Chelsea defender into my lineup with Reece James' attacking threat a really good option this weekend. Southampton is a team to avoid entirely in FPL.
Leeds United (+195) at Everton (+150) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Leeds United
Everton's win against Arsenal in their first game under Sean Dyche looked like it could be the start of their recovery. But they were brought back down to Earth at neighbors Liverpool on Monday, losing 2-0 and it already looks like they will need to rely on their home form to stay up. Leeds' search for a new Head Coach continues and is set to be a prolonged affair. Without a win in their last nine EPL games, something needs to change sooner rather than later if Leeds is to maintain their EPL status.
Although I see this game ending in a score draw, I wouldn't be averse to playing an Everton defender and/or Jordan Pickford. Dyche's focus on set-pieces as an attacking threat means their center-back pair of James Tarkowski and Connor Coady are both interesting options. For Leeds, Wilfried Gnonto remains the main FPL play but the lack of a goal-scoring threat around him doesn't make him much more than a dart throw.
Manchester City (-310) at Nottingham Forest (+850) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Manchester City
Forest's five-game unbeaten run came to an end in their 2-0 loss at Fulham but they've not lost any of their last seven home EPL games, winning four and drawing three. None of those seven opponents ranks higher than eighth in the current league table. City returned to the top of the league when they beat Arsenal on Wednesday, their second straight 3-1 win. They've yet to kick into top gear yet but have still scored 13 goals in their last five EPL games, which includes a 1-0 loss.
While Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson are both appealing plays at home most weeks, this isn't that week. I'm avoiding any Forest players this week. For City, they look like they've returned to a more settled side. Headlined by Erling Haaland, their other main FPL option remains Kevin de Bruyne. Jack Grealish picked up a knock in midweek, Phil Foden hasn't been starting, Riyad Mahrez keeps getting subbed off early and Bernardo Silva is playing a much deeper/left-back role. I'd be more comfortable playing a defender alongside de Bruyne and Haaland this weekend.
Bournemouth (+450) at Wolves (-150) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 2 - 0 Bournemouth
The Wolves revival continued last weekend when they came from a goal down to beat Southampton 2-1, despite having a player sent off while trailing. They've played seven games since the World Cup with their only two defeats coming against the Manchester pair. Bournemouth secured a credible point against Newcastle United last time out but they've lost their last six away games and failed to score in the last four.
I'll cover Wolves defensive unit more later on but for FPL purposes, the only midfielder I'm confident in playing any week is Ruben Neves. João Gomes came off the bench to score the winner last weekend and makes an intriguing play but a risky one as he's no certainty to start the game. Adama Traoré has an assist in each of his last two games but both appearances have come from the bench, limiting his appeal. For Bournemouth, the return from injury of Marcus Tavernier is intriguing but he's mainly a cost-saving option you play in favorable home games.
Liverpool (+175) at Newcastle United (+155) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Liverpool
Draws are beginning to have a detrimental effect on Newcastle's top-4 hopes with half of their 22 games this season having ended all square including five of their last six. They've scored just three goals in the last six games and after keeping six consecutive clean sheets, they've conceded in back-to-back games. Liverpool ended a four-game winless streak with a 2-0 win against Everton but they've lost their last three away games, conceding three goals in each of them.
Mo Salah getting back on the scoresheet on Monday was nice but I'm still not prepared to pay up for him and outside of Cody Gakpo, I'm not targeting any Liverpool player expecting a return. Joe Gomez and Stefan Bajcetic are both players I'd consider as cheap plays to allow me to go big elsewhere. Newcastle's lack of goals caps the attacking players' value while I'm expecting it to be three games without a clean sheet. That only leaves Kieran Trippier as a viable defensive play given his set-piece prowess.
Sunday, February 19th, 2023
Leicester City (+425) at Manchester United (-170) 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 3 - 2 Leicester City
I'm expecting this to be the game of the weekend with United having scored two goals in each of their last four EPL games and another two in their midweek Europa League tie with Barcelona. Leicester has scored ten goals in their last three games while conceding five and the 46 total goals in their away games (11) this season is more than any other team in the league. Leicester has failed to score on their travels just once.
There should be plenty of viable attacking options for FPL in this game and for Leicester, James Maddison is the number one player I'm targeting. Maddison has two goals and one assist in his two starts following his injury absence while Harvey Barnes has two goals and two assists in his last three games making him a cheaper but equally appealing play. Manchester United's star man will feature shortly but Bruno Fernandes is the only other home player I'm very confident in providing a return. Defensively, Luke Shaw has appeal given his attacking threat but no other defender is a target this week.
West Ham United (+310) at Tottenham (-120) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 1 West Ham United
Tottenham followed up their 1-0 win against Manchester City by losing 4-1 to Leicester City and then going down 1-0 to Milan in the first leg of their Champions League tie in midweek. They've become the most unpredictable team in the league. West Ham had a credible draw against Chelsea last weekend although they had to ride their luck with a very favorable handball decision, that made it three games unbeaten as they try to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
Harry Kane failing to score at Leicester was more of a shock than the scoreline but if I roster him, I'm starting him this week. Ivan Perišić does have five assists this season, but none in his last five games and just one in his last ten. I'm starting him if I roster him, but I'm not looking to transfer Perišić into my squad. West Ham has one player I'm keen to have on my teams and he'll be covered later on.
Betting Picks
As per the introduction, we're mixing things up with the betting picks moving forward. Rather than seeking out special plays for every game, we'll look at the most common three plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score) per game based on the score prediction.
The below table gives the odds for each of those plays and we'll be playing three parlays using every game once with a total of ten units played. The picks for each parlay are highlighted for each game, but feel free to utilize the table as you wish.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal | Arsenal -120 | u2.5 -115 | No +100 |
| Brentford 2 – 0 Crystal Palace | Brentford -110 | u2.5 -135 | No -115 |
| Brighton 3 – 1 Fulham | Brighton -155 | o2.5 -135 | Yes -135 |
| Chelsea 2 – 0 Southampton | Chelsea -260 | u2.5 -110 | No -145 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Leeds | Draw +230 | u2.5 -130 | Yes -135 |
| Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Man City | Man City -310 | u2.5 +135 | No -125 |
| Wolves 2 – 0 Bournemouth | Wolves -150 | u2.5 -135 | No -120 |
| Newcastle 1 – 1 Liverpool | Draw +255 | u2.5 +105 | Yes -160 |
| Man United 3 – 2 Leicester | Man United - 170 | o2.5 -170 | Yes -155 |
| Tottenham 2 – 1 West Ham | Tottenham -120 | o2.5 -125 | Yes -145 |
| Season totals | 4/10 | 6/10 | 5/10 |
Parlays
Moneyline (+483) 2.5 units
Over/Under 2.5 goals (+397) 5 units
Both teams to score (+760) 2.5 units
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defenses to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choices for this week.
Stack the D
Finally, a week where I'm not all in on the Newcastle defense. Instead, I'm targeting Wolves as my defensive stack. They've played seven games since the World Cup, keeping two clean sheets and Manchester City is the only side to have scored more than once against them in that span. Bournemouth failing to score in their last four away games and finding the net just twice in their seven games since the World Cup is appealing enough.
But we also have the added bonus that Bournemouth has conceded the most goals from set-pieces this season so one of the Wolves defenders could pop up with a goal too. With Ruben Neves the only midfielder or attacker I'm confident in playing, going with two Wolves defenders or one plus 'keeper José Sá has much appeal this weekend
Unloved nuggets
This is the week Alexis Mac Allister (2.6% rostered) finally gets going again. After a prolonged absence following his World Cup success with Argentina, he's failed to score or assist in four games (three starts). Last week, Mac Allister should've ended that streak with two great chances, and the fact he had an expected goals (xG) total of 1.32 in the game tells its own story. He scored against Fulham earlier in the season and I fancy him doing the same on Saturday.
João Félix (2.1% rostered) had an auspicious start to his Chelsea career, getting sent off on his debut. He returned from suspension last weekend, scoring his first Chelsea goal, and in less than two EPL games, he has an expected goals involvement (xGI) of 1.91. Chelsea is in desperate need of a regular goal scorer and Félix could be that person in the coming weeks.
Jarrod Bowen (2.6% rostered) started the season as one of the most popular midfielders in FPL. Two goals and one assist in 16 games to start the season saw him become one of the most dropped players, but he began to show signs of life without much return following the World Cup. And now, Bowen is one of the best midfield plays moving forward. His 10.19 xGI is seventh among all midfielders and he's had five goal involvements in his last seven games.
Avoid the trap
Arsenal's dip in form is worrisome and it's no coincidence, some of their stars haven't been providing much FPL return in recent games. That applies to Gabriel Martinelli more than anyone else. He's now gone six games without a goal involvement and since the arrival of Leandro Trossard, Martinelli has averaged 65 minutes per game during this winless run, being replaced by Trossard on all three occasions. Still, on 36.2% of teams, don't be surprised if he finds himself on the bench this weekend.
One for the watchlist
Chelsea's record signing among many huge transfer fees was Enzo Fernández and the World Cup winner has started Chelsea's last two games. He picked up an assist last weekend and flashed some of his potential, creating most of Chelsea's attacks. He's currently only rostered by 1.1% of teams and although he's not someone I'd be expecting double-digit points from every week, at £5.0m, he's certainly someone I'm keeping a close eye on.
Lock of the week
After I expected him to bust last weekend (and being wrong), I'm backing Marcus Rashford to have a big points haul this weekend. In the game with the most expected goals of the weekend, Rashford is set to make it five straight EPL games with a goal. He comes into the weekend with 11 goal involvements in his last ten EPL games and scored against Barcelona on Thursday. You need to go back to Gameweek 12 for the last team to go to Old Trafford and not conceded a Rashford goal.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
