Outfielders - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

It feels like the 2023 season just ended, but we're already about three months away from the start of the 2024 season and fantasy drafts are beginning to pick up. Especially now since fantasy football has come to an end for the most part.

The outfield position is once again a tricky position to navigate in 2024 drafts. It feels deep on the surface, but once you get into your draft, you'll find areas where the intriguing targets fizzle out. If you wait too long, you're going to wind up with an outfield core that more than likely underwhelms you, so that's why this is one of the positions I'll be focusing on early in my drafts. If you're able to secure at least two quality outfielders within the 7-9 rounds or so, that will set you up to take some upside plays or focus more on other positions during the middle rounds of your draft.

This ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between November 1 and December 31. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

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Outfield Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Rank	Name	Team	ADP	Min Pick	Max Pick
1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	1	1	1
2	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	2.71	2	4
3	Corbin Carroll	ARZ	4.71	3	8
4	Mookie Betts	LAD	5.1	2	8
5	Kyle Tucker	HOU	6.42	3	10
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	7.71	5	12
7	Aaron Judge	NYY	11.97	8	17
8	Juan Soto	NYY	13.23	7	19
9	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	16.68	9	22
10	Luis Robert Jr.	CWS	28.81	19	42
11	Michael Harris II	ATL	36.19	28	48
12	Adolis Garcia	TEX	43.97	27	65
13	Randy Arozarena	TB	46.32	35	56
14	Cody Bellinger	CHC	53.81	22	75
15	Nolan Jones	COL	56.71	33	70
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	MIA	70.48	43	98
17	Mike Trout	LAA	74.29	44	100
18	Josh Lowe	TB	77.39	63	99
19	Christian Yelich	MLW	79.29	59	96
20	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	92.68	60	133
21	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	94.9	81	120
22	Spencer Steer	CIN	102.97	76	126
23	Lane Thomas	WAS	109.9	83	133
24	Nick Castellanos	PHI	110.26	80	128
25	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	112.74	88	139
26	George Springer	TOR	125	89	145
27	Jordan Walker	STL	128.84	105	159
28	Evan Carter	TEX	131.55	85	161
29	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	135.48	89	222
30	Cedric Mullins	BAL	142.87	106	197
31	Anthony Santander	BAL	145.97	122	175
32	TJ Friedl	CIN	146	117	203
33	Wyatt Langford	TEX	149.19	76	188
34	Ian Happ	CHC	150.61	111	187
35	Tommy Edman	STL	151.39	131	172
36	Teoscar Hernandez	SEA	157.81	119	180
37	Jorge Soler	MIA	165.52	141	191
38	Chas McCormick	HOU	165.9	121	197
39	Jackson Chourio	MLW	170.03	97	248
40	James Outman	LAD	171.9	151	195
41	Riley Greene	DET	175.45	122	204
42	Masataka Yoshida	BOS	180.58	153	215
43	Jarren Duran	BOS	184.61	156	219
44	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	193.74	174	227
45	Christopher Morel	CHC	203.94	155	232
46	Lars Nootbaar	STL	204.19	170	234
47	Kerry Carpenter	DET	207.52	168	238
48	Steven Kwan	CLE	212.58	177	254
49	Daulton Varsho	TOR	212.68	185	253
50	Jarred Kelenic	ATL	221.61	185	258
51	Taylor Ward	LAA	222.13	179	266
52	Starling Marte	NYM	232.71	210	277
53	Jack Suwinski	PIT	241.32	210	288
54	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	ARZ	241.45	198	295
55	Whit Merrifield	TOR	246.16	200	315
56	Gavin Lux	LAD	255.9	184	322
57	Luis Rengifo	LAA	263.77	209	292
58	Tyler O'Neill	BOS	268.68	207	340
59	Leody Taveras	TEX	269.13	239	340
60	Nelson Velazquez	KC	273.06	229	317
61	MJ Melendez	KC	277.52	204	311
62	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	279.68	213	323
63	Kris Bryant	COL	280.03	223	335
64	Will Benson	CIN	285.35	220	364
65	Brendan Donovan	STL	287.61	249	331
66	Jung Hoo Lee	SF	287.9	157	413
67	Jose Siri	TB	288.29	239	356
68	Tommy Pham	ARZ	290.39	248	360
69	Jake Fraley	CIN	293.52	225	347
70	Max Kepler	MIN	295.74	209	363
71	Henry Davis	PIT	296.35	235	372
72	Parker Meadows	DET	296.81	262	345
73	Brent Rooker	OAK	300.26	226	338
74	Sal Frelick	MLW	301.23	244	353
75	Matt Wallner	MIN	305.23	244	360
76	Austin Hays	BAL	305.65	264	349
77	Jeff McNeil	NYM	307.48	260	356
78	Willi Castro	MIN	307.52	255	383
79	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	324.23	207	390
80	Alek Thomas	ARZ	325.48	287	370
81	Alex Verdugo	NYY	325.81	278	374
82	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	330.71	206	443
83	Brandon Marsh	PHI	334.29	292	409
84	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	351.39	288	405
85	Luke Raley Jr.	TB	351.58	307	407
86	Chris Taylor	LAD	356.42	310	401
87	Ezequiel Duran	TEX	356.97	305	395
88	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	362.26	305	454
89	Garrett Mitchell	MLW	365.94	303	505
90	Jesus Sanchez	MIA	373.35	292	447
91	Mickey Moniak	LAA	378.71	296	456
92	Jake McCarthy	ARZ	378.87	194	515
93	Wilyer Abreu	BOS	382.48	303	452
94	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	383.35	321	446
95	Jasson Dominguez	NYY	383.58	322	455
96	Matt Vierling	DET	387.35	309	462
97	Adam Duvall	BOS	388.13	289	503
98	Drew Waters	KC	391.55	333	463
99	Andrew Benintendi	CWS	396.52	339	470
100	Johan Rojas	PHI	402.48	318	479
101	Michael Conforto	SF	402.9	332	459
102	Zach McKinstry	DET	409.39	363	446
103	Edward Olivares	PIT	415.35	272	475
104	Harrison Bader	CIN	415.42	286	495
105	Mark Canha	DET	416.74	373	482
106	Ryan O'Hearn	BAL	419.52	339	503
107	Hunter Renfroe	KC	431.29	338	549
108	Charlie Blackmon	COL	434.9	394	494
109	Brenton Doyle	COL	436.94	330	585
110	Eddie Rosario	ATL	437.35	364	500
111	Mitch Haniger	SF	449.94	361	588
112	Luis Matos	SF	456.61	393	537
113	Cavan Biggio	TOR	467.13	357	601
114	Blake Sabol	SF	467.81	379	664
115	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	468.55	408	569
116	Seth Brown	OAK	472.45	368	540
117	Joc Pederson	SF	479.35	382	583
118	Ramon Laureano	CLE	479.77	407	572
119	Mauricio Dubon	HOU	480.35	316	556
120	Tyrone Taylor	NYM	480.55	303	616
121	Hunter Goodman	COL	482.29	374	622
122	Colton Cowser	BAL	492.13	329	612
123	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	499.16	442	567
124	Trent Grisham	NYY	500.26	446	625
125	Joey Wiemer	MLW	500.45	404	637

 

Outfielders I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

1. Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
3. Evan Carter & Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
4. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
5. James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
7. Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
8. Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rats
9. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
10. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins

If I miss out on the elite names or decide to target other positions in the first 2-3 rounds, Randy Arozarena is going to be a popular target of mine in Rounds 3/4 depending on the league size. Arozarena has put up three straight 20/20 seasons while posting his best full-season walk and strikeout rates of his career in 2023 at 12.2% and 23.9%, respectively. He also recorded the best AVG EV and hard-hit rate of his career. Another 20/20 season is a likely outcome in 2024.

By the time I get to the ADP range containing Seiya Suzuki, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Jordan Walker, I hopefully already have one or two outfielders. As it did last year, the outfield position tends to dry out after the top 15-20 names or so, but there are still some intriguing upside plays in the middle rounds with the aforementioned quartet serving as my favorite targets.

Out of these four, Carter is probably the hottest name in draft rooms right now after how he finished the season and performed in the postseason as a 21-year-old rookie. The ADP around pick 130 feels very reasonable for someone with his upside that debuted as well as he did. Carter has the upside to go 20/25 in 2024 with a solid AVG/OBP and plenty of run production hitting in the middle of Texas' loaded lineup. This ADP is honestly a steal. Langford should join him in Texas' outfield very early in the season and perhaps even on Opening Day. Given his blend of contact, approach, power, and speed, Langford is my #1 overall prospect for fantasy purposes and one of my favorite outfield targets in redraft leagues this season. A 20/20 season as a rookie should not be ruled out.

As for Suzuki and Walker, both are fairly undervalued right now. Over the final two months of the season, Suzuki slashed .350/.406/.667 with 15 doubles and 12 home runs in 207 plate appearances. Overall, Suzuki's metrics were very impressive across the board, with better than league-average marks in contact, zone contact, whiff, chase, and quality of contact. I'd be more than fine having him or Walker as my OF2. Walker's final 125 plate appearances resulted in a .339/.392/.545 slash line with five home runs and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Both players have significant ROI potential.

Lastly, Jarren Duran could wind up as a steal at his current 185 ADP. In 2023, Duran posted a 91.2% zone contact rate, 78.6% contact rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile sprint speed. If he's not traded, Duran should lead off a ton for Boston with guys like Rafael Devers and Triston Casas hitting behind him. Over a full season, Duran has the upside to post a 15/30 season with more than 90 runs. That would be phenomenal production for where he's being drafted.

 

Outfielder ADPs I'm Not Keen On

1. Cody Bellinger, Free Agent
2. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
3. Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
4. Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
5. Jarred Kelenic, Atlanta Braves

The most surprising name of this group is likely Jazz Chisholm. His inclusion here is 100% due to his durability concerns and not his talent level. Chisholm has averaged 29 home runs and 33 steals per 650 plate appearances during his career, but has yet to exceed 507 plate appearances in a season. We've also seen his zone contact, contact, and whiff rates get worse every season so far. Maybe he'll have a massive year, but I'll let someone else pay the cost.

With Bellinger, it's more about the minimal ROI opportunity at his near top-50 ADP. It was a nice bounce-back season in 2023, and I don't believe it was entirely fluky. However, Bellinger's 6.1% barrel rate, 87.9 mph AVG EV, and 31.4% hard-hit rate were all the worst of his career last season. On the flip side, Bellinger's zone contact, whiff, and strikeout rates were all the best of his career, too. The ADP isn't terrible, but we've seen how inconsistent Bellinger can be and I believe there's a better chance he returns a negative ROI than a positive one this season.

Drafting Esteury Ruiz goes against my entire drafting mentality and approach when it comes to stolen bases. I'd much rather spread my speed out so it's less of a blow if one of my top SB guys gets hurt. Plus, Ruiz doesn't really help you outside of one category.

Kelenic and Chourio are being drafted too high due to the trade and contract extension, respectively. Maybe a change of scenery will be positive for Kelenic, but there are still too many red flags and inconsistencies in his profile for me to invest in this season. He's had a strikeout rate north of 31% and a whiff rate near 34% in each of the last two seasons while running below-average contact rates. And on top of all of that, he might be in a platoon situation in left field.

Lastly, Chourio is a great talent with a bright future, especially for fantasy. But he's also an aggressive hitter and I'm wondering if that gets exploited during his rookie season. If I can get him closer to pick 200, I'm potentially on board. But that's not happening since he signed the contract extension back in early December. I'm currently in the middle of two NFBC drafts and he went 136th and 151st in those drafts.

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