X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early 2017 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

Welcome back to the series that further proves that the itch of fantasy baseball never goes away. We're gathered here to look at my thoughts on the top players at each position. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league with the rankings.

We led off with catchers before hitting first, second, and third base before going to shortstop, and after the infield was done we hit up the outfield. Now we're checking in on my top-25 for starting pitchers heading into 2017.

It felt really weird not including Jose Fernandez, but we do our best to remember his greatness and have to move on. For what it's worth, he'd be my #3.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Early 2017 Rankings: Starting Pitchers

1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD – As if. Kershaw’s 6.5 fWAR was tied for the best out of any pitcher with Thor, except Kershaw did it in only 149 innings and Thor needed 183 2/3 innings. He was just that dominant. For all starters with at least 140 innings logged, Kershaw's 2.41 SIERA easily beat JoFer's 2.81 in second place. His 2% walk rate paced the entire league, as did his stellar 29.6 K-BB%. It's great to see that he's back to normal after that back injury scare, and he should be the unquestioned King of the Mound in 2017.

2. Max Scherzer, WAS – Scherzer decimated hitters by allowing them to only register a .196 batting average against while striking out 31.5% of those who dared to step into the batter’s box. The craziest part might be that he doesn’t only rack up the whiffs, but he induced soft contact at a 22.2% clip – seventh best in the Majors out of qualified starters. That 1.22 HR/9 was his only real blemish, but luckily they always seemed to be solo shots since no one else could get on base.

3. Noah Syndergaard, NYM – The Norse God of thunder blew his opponents away with his filthy 100+ MPH fastball, a 91 MPH slider and a changeup that travels at a mere 90 MPH. He was one of only two qualified starters to finish the season with a sub-3 SIERA, and his 2.11 BB/9 only further illustrated how lethal his pitches could be. He isn’t just a hurler throwing heat, he’s got the ability to locate his fire and make hitters earn their way on base. He’s only recently turned 24. The sky is the limit, but one is also drafting a little risk with that elbow.

4. Madison Bumgarner, SF – Bumgarner, he of the insane postseason stats, also happened to be pretty good in the regular season as well. His K/9 crept up for a fourth-straight season in 2016 and this was also his third straight season of a sub-3 ERA, but his fielding-independent metrics were more mid-threes than threes (3.24 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA). He's really not someone you worry about, but it'd be nice if he went back to 2015's 4.5% walk rate compared to this season's 5.9% mark. We're nitpicking a bit of course, this is a bona fide ace.

5. Chris Sale, CWS – Sale set out on a quest to be more efficient in 2016, working deeper into games with less of an emphasis on overpowering hitters. His first 17 starts yielded a 14-2 (!) record with a 2.93 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 120 innings, but his SIERA was 3.52. His final 15 starts gave way to a 3-8 record, though his 115:21 strikeout-to-walk ratio reflected a more aggressive approach and his SIERA actually improved to 3.34 after the All-Star break. Trust the metrics, as he’s still absolutely a stud but his approach is a big piece of the puzzle.

6. Corey Kluber, CLE– Kluber actually wasn’t his sharpest in 2016, and yet he still struck out 227 in only 215 innings while posting plus ratios (3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and seeing his win-loss record rebound from 2015’s mutinous 9-16 to 18-9. The Klubot’s SIERA has sat below 3.00 in 2014 and 2015, but this season it was at 3.50 as his strikeouts dropped a tick (-1.3%) and his walk rate went up 1.5%. He’s still amazing though, and it showed.

7. Yu Darvish, TEX – Darvish’s 2016 didn’t get started until July 16 after recovery from TJS took quite a while, though he made three starts in late May/early June before needing additional time off. Excluding those three outings and his first start back when he was on a pitch count, Darvish posted a 3.47 ERA (3.01 SIERA) alongside a 24% soft contact rate, 31.3% K rate and 6.3% walk rate.

8. Justin Verlander, DET – Verlander showed a form we haven’t seen in five years, as he went ballistic on opponents with a 16-9 record, 254 Ks in 227 2/3 innings to the tune of a career-high 28.1 K%. At age-33, some might think that this is a little late for such a renaissance, but rest assured this was a talent-fueled campaign for the Detroit ace.

9. Jon Lester, CHC – Chicago’s ace finished with an impressive 19-5 record thanks to an electric second half that didn’t see him take a loss until the very last start of the regular season on Oct. 1. He went 10-1 with a pristine 1.76 ERA from the Midsummer Classic on, much to his fantasy owners’ delight. Lester’s ridiculously low 2.44 overall ERA checked in as the second-best mark in the Major Leagues out of qualified starters, though he didn’t even lead the Cubs in that department thanks to this next guy…

10. Kyle Hendricks, CHC – AKA “The Maestro” due to his insane ability to place the ball where he wants with the right amount of break on the pitch to induce soft contact at a league-leading 25%. In an era where everyone is dazzled by velocity, Hendricks led the league with a wild 2.13 ERA and a solid 0.98 WHIP. It’s not like he can’t miss bats either, as he bumped up his swinging-strike rate from 8.1% to 10% this season even though his K% only rose 0.2%.

11. Jake Arrieta, CHC – All of the Cubs! It’s difficult to complain about an 18-8 record with a 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 190 Ks in 197 1/3 innings, but there were some troubling signs underneath the hood. His K% sunk from 27.1% to 23.9%, but his walk rate shot up from 5.5% to 9.6%. That lack of command resulted in a 3.52 FIP, 3.68 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA (his numbers last year: 2.35 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.75 SIERA). He’s shown enough over the past three years to still be considered a top pitcher, but 2015 Arrieta is in the wind.

12. Johnny Cueto, SF – Cueto’s 2015 was a tale of two halves, with a 2.73 first-half ERA (3.12 FIP) that rose to 4.34 in the second half (4.04 FIP). 2016 showed the same trend, but he brought both figures down with a 2.47 first-half ERA (2.67 FIP) and a 3.26 second-half ERA (3.37 FIP). His overall 2.96 FIP is encouraging, and his 50.2% ground-ball rate and 0.61 HR/9 really helped minimize the damage.

13. Stephen Strasburg, WAS – Upside, thy name is Strasburg. Washington’s young arm is dealing with an elbow injury at the moment, but before that he had posted a 15-4 record with a 3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP alongside a dynamite 30.6 K%. His 2.92 FIP, 3.20 xFIP and 3.18 SIERA are all bankable metrics, but it’s really just about that nagging feeling that you’re not going to get a full season out of him.

14. David Price, BOS – This was one weird season for the southpaw, as he posted his worst ERA (3.99) in a full season thanks to a huge jump in hard-hit rate (+6.6%), pull rate (+10.8%) and a HR/FB rate that rose 5.7% as a result. He still struck out 24% of batters faced for his third-straight season of 225+ Ks, and even posted his fourth-straight season with a walk rate under 5.5% -- both very strong figures – but he simply got hit too hard when contact was made. The AL East and Fenway can be unforgiving in these regards, but he should be a solid “bounceback” candidate in 2017.

15. Carlos Carrasco, CLE – He improved his ERA from last season’s 3.63 to 3.32, but he was nowhere near the force that he was in 2015. His SIERA went from 2.74 to 3.44 as his strikeout rate dropped from 29.6% to 25% and his hard-hit rate allowed soared from 27.5% to 36.4%. This led to an ordinary 1.29 HR/9 (up from 0.88) and paints him as above-average rather than a borderline SP1.

16. Masahiro Tanaka, NYY – The Yankees ace had the third-lowest ERA in the AL (3.07) as he made modest improvements to his ground-ball rate (47% to 48.2%) and first-strike rate (62.6% to 64.5%). The biggest impact came from lowering his HR/9 from 1.46 to 0.99, though his SIERA did rise from 3.36 to 3.79. His K% did drop to 20.5% from 22.8%, but his splitter and strong control (4.5% walk rate) should keep him viable as a high-end SP2 in 2017.

17. Jacob deGrom, NYM – In his third season, deGrom clearly wasn’t 100% for much of it and he still posted a 3.04 ERA (3.66 SIERA) and 1.20 WHIP with a 23.7% strikeout rate. The 7-8 record wasn’t really his fault, we’re past that thinking, but his BABIP rose from .271 to .312 thanks to a hard-hit rate that jumped 5%. He’s been a great arm for the greater part of three seasons now, and if he handles rehab and Spring Training well then he’s a nice value in the NL East.

18. Kenta Maeda, LAD – Maeda performed admirably in his first MLB season, going 16-11 with 179 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings (25% K rate) and a 3.48 ERA (3.69 SIERA). His 11.6% swinging-strike rate backs up those Ks, and his 7% walk rate illustrates a pitcher who was more than ready to take on this level of competition. He’ll turn 29 a couple of weeks into the 2017 season, and should be a good bet to turn up again next year.

19. Danny Duffy, KC – Duffy made quite the leap in 2016. In his 161 2/3 innings as a starter, he posted a 3.56 ERA while allowing a .238/.291/.424 triple slash to opposing hitters. He also had an incredible 25.4% strikeout rate alongside a mere 5.6% walk rate. The thing he needs to improve on is arm strength, as his fastball velocity sat around 96 MPH when he first entered the rotation on May 15 but steadily dropped to just a shade under 94 MPH in late September. I like his chances.

20. Chris Archer, TB – We all know the surface stats were pretty gross (9-19, 4.02 ERA), but his fielding-independent metrics still provided hope (3.50 SIERA) – some of which we saw in the second half. His K/BB rose from 2.71 in the first half to 5.42 in the second, and his WHIP plummeted from 1.44 to 1.01.

21. Carlos Martinez, STL – The strikeouts were down as he put an emphasis on locating the ball low in the zone, which resulted in a drop in strikeouts from 24.4% to 21.5% but also a .286 BABIP compared to 2015’s .318 mark. While his 3.04 ERA was near-identical to last season’s 3.01 ERA, his SIERA blew up from 3.44 to 3.97 as a result of this approach.

22. Cole Hamels, TEX – The walks are concerning (7.1% in 2015 to 9.1% this season), but he actually managed to dance around ugly first-half metrics (4.53 FIP) to improve in the second half (3.28 FIP) and put together a solid campaign. The 3.99 SIERA was easily a career-worst mark, even though his 3.32 ERA was actually 33 points down from 2015’s 3.65 ERA.

23. Rich Hill, LAD - Everyone's favorite posterchild for blisters in 2016, Hill was incredible when he was able to stay on the bump. His 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP joined a 29.4% strikeout rate. It will be interesting to see what uniform he's wearing in 2017, as park factors and the division he's stuck in will certainly matter, but the reinvented 36-year-old should still be solid for fantasy owners regardless of his surroundings.

24. Rick Porcello, BOS - Boston's surprise ace had an incredible reversal of fortune considering all he really did metrics-wise was drop his walk rate from 5.2% to 3.6% and shave 3% off of his line-drive rate. This, combined with a rather unlucky 2015, helped his .332 BABIP of last season to nosedive to .269. This resulted in a 35-point drop in his WHIP, and of course his 22-4 record didn't hurt anyone either. His xFIP actually rose 17 points and his SIERA crept up five points compared to 2015 though, so color me skeptical.

25. Jose Quintana, CWS - In each of his last three seasons, Quintana has logged 200+ innings with an ERA ranging from 3.32 to 3.51 -- admirable marks -- yet has only been rewarded with nine wins in each of those seasons. He still fought off some poor luck to only finish 13-12 despite finishing sixth in the MLB with 23 quality starts, an identical mark to teammate Chris Sale. Behind all of his career-best marks was a career-worst 4.01 SIERA and 32.7% hard-hit rate, but his age-28 season should still have a good shot at providing SP3-caliber stats.

 

Honorable Mentions

Danny Salazar, CLE.

Aaron Sanchez, TOR.

Tanner Roark, WAS.

Marcus Stroman, TOR.

Jon Gray, COL.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Justin Fields

Diagnosed With Concussion Sunday
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Evaluated for Concussion, Tyrod Taylor Enters Game
Joe Burrow

Ruled Out for Remainder of Week 2 With Toe Injury
Joe Burrow

Questionable to Return in Week 2 with Toe Injury
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
Joe Burrow

Leaves Week 2 Game with Apparent Leg Injury
Quinshon Judkins

to Start in NFL Debut
A.J. Brown

Eagles Plan to Get A.J. Brown More Involved
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Jaydon Blue

Remains Healthy Scratch for Week 2
Wan'Dale Robinson

Active for Week 2 Against Cowboys
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP