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Early 2017 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

Welcome back to the series that further proves that the itch of fantasy baseball never goes away.

We're gathered here to look at my thoughts on the top players at each position. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league with the rankings.

First was catchers, and now we head 90 feet to first base. Please note that 2016 was a wild year for homers all around, with its 5,610 homers being the second-most all time (2000: 5,692), so my soft advisory is to take the gains with a grain of salt.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Early 2017 Rankings: Top-10 First Basemen

1. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI – If you ask anyone who didn’t own Goldschmidt in 2016 what his stat line was, they’d probably all underestimate it. Yes, he hit .247 and only stole one base in April, but he still had a beastly 106-24-95-32-.297 campaign. Take away that poor April and he was the same first-round talent as ever.

2. Anthony Rizzo, CHC – The 27-year-old tied his career-high mark in runs (94) and homers (32), and set new highs in RBIs (109) and batting average (.292). Yes, his three steals were a huge step back from 2015’s 17 swipes, but even without those you’ve got a player in his prime on an offense that is as potent as they come.

3. Joey Votto, CIN – His season-long line looks normal, pretty much what folks were paying for in 2016 drafts. Of course, we know that he had a putrid first half and then a historic second half to bring it back. The bat he swung in the second half is much closer to “true Votto” than the first half, making him a nice bet for 2017.

4. Miguel Cabrera, DET – I hope everyone bought into Cabrera being a first-round caliber hitter in 2016, because his 38-homer, 108-RBI campaign really delivered alongside a healthy .316 average. He’ll turn 34 next April, and he’s the kind of hitter that should be able to age rather gracefully like Albert Pujols and have several strong seasons ahead of him.

5. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR* – Yes, he DHed a lot but still started 74 games at first. E5’s 127 RBIs were tied for tops in the AL with David Ortiz, and second only to Nolan Arenado in the Majors. While his prospects will be affected by where he plays in 2017 (he's a free agent after the postseason ends), his kind of power should be able to play everywhere a la Nelson Cruz. The counting stats are what we’ll need to keep an eye on.

6. Daniel Murphy, WAS - At 31 years old, Murph-dog came within inches of winning the Major-League batting title (.347, still prettay, prettay good), while hitting 25 dingers and 104 RBIs in his first year as a National. In 2015, he had a 31% hard-hit rate. That rose to 38.2% in 2016 alongside a 5.9% increase in fly balls. This explains the power, and his line-drive rate even crept forward a tick to help his average too. This is what sustainable growth and a changed swing looks like.

7. Freddie Freeman, ATL – Freddie may have turned in baseball’s quietest 30-game hitting streak toward the end of the season, which helped him finish 2016 with a .302 average after failing to top .300 in his previous two seasons. Oh, and his 34 homers greatly exceeded his career-high of 23. Atlanta’s lineup is trending up, making the 27-year-old a solid pick.

8. Wil Myers, SD – Myers had a downright astounding first half to the season, posting a 61-19-60-15-.286 line before the Midsummer Classic. His 38-9-34-13-.223 second-half line was much more pedestrian, but a talent as highly regarded as Myers finally putting it together for a solid stretch of the season means we perk up. He’s only 25.

9. Jose Abreu, CWS – For as horrible as Abreu’s first two months of the 2016 season were, he still finished as one of only 22 players with 100 or more RBIs. His .293 average was actually better than his .290 mark from 2015. Of course, his 67 runs were horribly disappointing and the 25 homers didn’t salvage anything. You’re buying the first baseman that hit 14 homers with a .319 average in the second half though.

10. Hanley Ramirez, BOS – HanRam really found his groove again, but he also logged more than 600 PAs in a season for the first time since 2012. Being on the field and not on the shelf goes a long way towards being productive. He was on pace for roughly 30 homers in 2015 as well, though his 111 RBIs this season were obviously huge for his value compared to the 75-80 RBI pace of ’15. Rib-eyes aren’t predictive of course, but he has a clear spot in the middle of Boston’s stacked lineup so the deck is stacked in his favor. If he stays healthy, he should have top-10 value.

 

First Basemen #11-20

11. Matt Carpenter, STL - Mr. Wrench showed that his 28-homer 2015 was no fluke by hitting 21 dingers in 566 PAs, though missing a month due to an oblique injury really took the top off. I should probably bump Ramirez and put Carp at #10, but I'll stick with this for now.

12. Chris Davis, BAL - He hit 38 homers despite playing through some real discomfort, and actually didn't clear the fence in the final two weeks of the season. Should flirt with 40 homers again in 2017.

13. Carlos Santana, CLE – In his age-30 season, Cleveland’s walk-machine actually turned in the lowest walk rate (14.4%) of his career, but it came with an identical 14.4% strikeout rate (also a career-low mark). That’s not really what you’re here for of course, as his 34 homers greatly exceeded his 19 from 2015 and his previous career high of 27.

14. Albert Pujols, LAA - He only made 28 starts at 1B in '16, but that'll do in most leagues. The Machine's 119 RBIs were the most since his 2009, and he's logged 650+ PAs in each of his last three seasons. The Angels do well to not push him, leaving him able to produce.

15. Eric Hosmer, KC - Over 22 RBIs in three months (May, Aug., Sept.), and under 13 RBIs in the other three (April, June, July). Batted .299 in the first half before a poor .225 second-half average. Still, career-high marks in HRs (25) and RBIs (104) will earn you a spot here.

16. Mike Napoli, CLE - Don't want to bank on his career-high 34 homers or first ever 100+ RBI season to seamlessly roll over into 2017, but this is one strong dude.

17. Chris Carter, MIL - Yeah his .222 average stinks, but the ability to hit 40+ homers that plays in a homer-friendly park as an established power commodity will get you some traction.

18. Brad Miller, TB - Miller's July and August were insanely fun, as he hit a combined 15 homers with a .276 average in those sweet summer months. Out of that though, he was pretty much just a guy. Two months is a lot to discount though, so do keep him in mind.

19. Brandon Belt, SF - Belt laced a career-high 41 doubles and topped 600 PAs for the first time, but he is reading more like that doubles guy rather than a 25-homer threat. His .394 OBP is notable for those who utilize that.

20. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD - The good: his 90 RBIs held steady from 2015. The bad: his fly-ball rate dropped by 9.2% and all of those additional outcomes turned into grounders, leading to the paltry 18 homers.

Honorable Mention: C.J. Cron, LAA - Cron has hit 16 homers in each of the past two seasons now, but has only logged 113 and 116 games in each of them, respectively. If he stays on the field for 150 games and continues to make adjustments, he could flirt with 25 homers and a .280 average.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Quentin Grimes

Unavailable on Tuesday
Paul George

Available to Play on Tuesday
LaMelo Ball

Expected to Play on Wednesday
Brandon Miller

Ruled Out for Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis

Sidelined Again for Wednesday
Kyshawn George

Upgraded to Available on Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected to Suit Up Wednesday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
Lian Bichsel

to Sit Out 6-8 Weeks
Viktor Arvidsson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Warren Foegele

Remains Out Tuesday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Probable for Wednesday
Valeri Nichushkin

Available After Eight-Game Absence
Gabriel Landeskog

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog Cleared for Tuesday
Jamal Murray

Questionable for Wednesday
Tyson Foerster

to Miss 2-3 Months
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
Alexandre Sarr

Out of Action Again on Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Sidelined at Least Three Weeks
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Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
Khris Middleton

Will Not Play Tuesday
Kyshawn George

Is Questionable Against the 76ers
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Trey Murphy III

Will Return Tuesday Night
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
Yves Missi

Uncertain to Play Tuesday Against the Timberwolves
Zion Williamson

Questionable Against Minnesota
Neemias Queta

Set to Return on Tuesday
Derrick White

Will Play Tuesday Against New York
Quentin Grimes

Downgraded to Questionable on Tuesday
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Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
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Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Jake Walman

Still Out Tuesday
Mason Appleton

Misses Tuesday's Contest
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Good to Go Tuesday
Conor Garland

Out on Tuesday
Petr Mrazek

Considered Day-to-Day
Tyson Foerster

Hurt in Monday's Loss
Trey Murphy III

May Skip Another Game Tuesday
Zion Williamson

Back in Pelicans Lineup Tuesday
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
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Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
Danila Yurov

Won't Play on Tuesday
David Pastrnak

to Remain Out Tuesday
Adam Gaudette

Iffy for Monday
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Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Logan Cooley

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Josh Norris

Available Monday
Neal Pionk

Remains Out Monday
Jimmy Snuggerud

to Miss Six Weeks After Wrist Surgery
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
Kyler Murray

Cardinals Won't Open Kyler Murray's Practice Window This Week
Sauce Gardner

Not a Candidate to Go on Injured Reserve
Jayden Daniels

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CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Return in Week 14
Tee Higgins

Still in the Concussion Protocol
Drake London

"has a Chance" to Play in Week 14
J.J. McCarthy

in Line to Start in Week 14?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Not Dealing With Serious Shoulder Injury, Likely Day-to-Day
Sam Darnold

Dealing With Ankle Injury, "Should be Good" for Week 14
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Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
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Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
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UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
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Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
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Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
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Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
Justin Herbert

Has Metacarpal Fracture in Left Hand
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Week 14 Availability Up in the Air
Zach Ertz

Leads Washington in Receiving in Overtime Loss
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Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
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Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
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Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
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Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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