RADIO
Nick Mariano gives you his very early picks for the top-30 outfielders (of) heading into the 2017 fantasy baseball season.
Welcome back to the series that further proves that the itch of fantasy baseball never goes away. We're gathered here to look at my thoughts on the top players at each position. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league with the rankings.
We led off with catchers before hitting first, second, and third base as well as shortstop. With outfield we're going to expand to the top 30, in the spirit of 10-team leagues starting three outfielders. It's the least I can do.
Please note that 2016 was a wild year for homers all around, with its 5,610 homers being the second-most all time (2000: 5,692), so my soft advisory is to take the gains with a grain of salt.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
Early 2017 Rankings: Outfielders
1. Mike Trout, LAA – We are truly spoiled by Trout, as he was incredible in his fifth full season and yet it just feels like another day to many of us. He went 123-29-100-30-.315 across the 5x5 standard categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG), and has delivered undebatable first-round production on an annual basis. It isn’t splashy at this point, but you can’t go anywhere else with #1.
2. Mookie Betts, BOS – This freshly-minted 24-year-old is threatening Trout’s stronghold atop the outfield rankings thanks to a wild 122-31-114-26-.318 season, but did have 49 more PAs than Trouty. This isn’t to diminish what Betts did, but do realize that his amazing 2016 is what Trout’s been doing for several years. Betts regularly batted cleanup starting in mid-August, and it’ll be very interesting (and great for his counting stats) if he stays there in 2017 with David Ortiz gone.
3. Kris Bryant, CHC - KB’s sophomore season saw him fall one longball shy of a 40-homer season, and he also eclipsed 100 runs (121) and 100 RBIs (102) while turning in a .292 average. He lowered his strikeout rate from 30.6% to 22%, and he was one of only 13 qualified hitters with a hard-hit rate above 40%. The Cubs offense should continue to be a fountain of runs in 2017, with Bryant at the center of it.
4. Bryce Harper, WAS - *Flop*. Well, flop in terms of being a top-three pick that is. He still hit 24 homers and stole 21 bases (he combined for 48 HRs + SBs last season), but his counting stats took on water. The biggest ding was to his batting average though, with that beautiful .330 mark dropping to a horrid .243. He still walked at a crazy 17.2% clip and actually dropped his strikeout rate by 1.3% and his swinging-strike rate by 2.2%, so look for a fully-healthy Harper to deliver in 2017.
5. Charlie Blackmon, COL – Blackmon blitzed the entire league in 2017, kicking every single facet of his batting game up a notch. Here are his 2016 totals with 2015’s numbers in parenthesis: 111 runs (93), 29 homers (17), 82 RBIs (58), .324 average (.287). This helped him balance out a dip in steals, as he only swiped 17 bags after stealing 43 in 2015. This is likely due to a turf toe injury that sidelined him for a bit in mid-April.
6. Trea Turner, WAS – The TT Cruiser took the baseball universe by storm with an electric 53-13-40-34-.342 line in only 73 games (327 PAs). Yes, that would prorate out to roughly a 115-30-90-75-.340 line. Ohhh-kay. Don’t anchor yourself to that, but this is a five-tool guy that will deliver from atop Washington’s lineup. Do note that he started 25 games at 2B, and is much more valuable there than at OF, but his versatility only further helps his case.
7. A.J. Pollock, ARI – His 2016 was shaping up to be one of the more intriguing seasons to witness after redefined “breakout season” with a wild 111-20-76-39-.315 line in 2015, but fractured his right elbow on April 1 in a Spring Training game. He managed to briefly return in September, but then a groin injury took him out of the equation again. His intriguing blend of power, contact and speed makes him a threat to dominate for fantasy owners, and will likely make him a top pick in 2017 drafts.
8. Starling Marte, PIT – The good news: he stolen a career-high 47 bases with a fantastic .311 average. The bad news: he only hit nine homers in 529 PAs thanks to an awful 8.4% HR/FB rate, which led to a skinny RBI total of 46. While last year’s 18.6% HR/FB mark was over his head, he still has a career rate of 13.3% that he fell well short of despite a career-high 34.7% hard-hit rate and a fly-ball rate that increased by 5.7%. Weird. Expect more in the power department in 2017.
9. Nelson Cruz, SEA – Nellie Cruuuuz turned in his third-straight 40+ homer season in 2016, further showing everyone that his power cannot be contained no matter what park he calls home. Going hand-in-hand with his solid counting stats is also his clean bill of health, as Cruz has now played in more than 150 games in each of the past three seasons (and four of the last five). Sure, the guy is going to turn 37 in the middle of next season, but his bat should continue to produce.
10. Carlos Gonzalez, COL – It’s a little disheartening to realize that he hit 27 homers in the second half last season in only 285 PAs, and then see that he hit a grand total of 25 in 632 PAs over the course of the full season in 2016. I mean it was one hell of a second half last season, but hopefully hopes were not pegged too high. His counting stats were still healthy, and 2016 was actually his first 100-RBI season since 2010, but homers tend to overshadow everything. He’s been healthy for two seasons in a row now and still gets to call Coors Field home, which makes the slugger a top-10 option.
11. Yoenis Cespedes, NYM – Well if anyone thought that 2015’s power spike was a fluke, he dispelled that notion real quick. His 35 homers in 676 PAs last season were lovely, and he followed that up by smacking 31 taters in only 543 PAs alongside an identical .251 ISO. It’ll be interesting to see how his contract situation plays out when it comes to his option, but wherever he lands he should be viewed as a reliable big bat.
12. George Springer, HOU – Springer sprung into action as Houston’s leadoff man for much of 2016, which helped him tally 116 runs alongside his usual pop (29 homers), but his average dipped 15 points and that wasn’t even the worst part. He was caught stealing 10 times on only 19 attempts after showing great awareness on the basepaths through his entire career (he was 16-for-20 in 2015). He still posted above-average numbers in three of the five major fantasy categories, but a blah average and a drain on steals knocks him down a bit.
13. J.D. Martinez, DET – Martinez was doing alright in the first two-and-a-half months of the season, with 12 homers, 39 RBIs and a .286 average, before a collision with the wall resulted in a nasty elbow dislocation that sidelined him for a month and a half. While the concern loomed that this would mess with his swing, he came back with a vengeance by hitting .332 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in his final 55 games. He should post over 30 homers with a plus average in 2017, making him a great pick.
14. Ryan Braun, MIL – Braun and the Brewers made a concerted effort to keep him healthy in 2016 by providing him with regular rest, and while he only played in 135 games (564 PAs), he still hit 30 bombs with 91 RBIs and a solid .305 average. Those numbers were his best since that beautiful 2012 campaign, and he even stole 16 bases to show he’s still not afraid to run out there.
15. Justin Upton, DET – Did you ever have any doubt?! If you didn’t then you are a cold-blooded fantasy assassin and we should be friends. Upton signed a big six-year deal worth $132.8M with Detroit and promptly hit a horrific three homers with 11 RBIs and a strikeout rate in the mid-30s over the first two months of the season. Beyond bad. He brought that K rate down to the mid-20s and hit five homers in each of the next three months, but then Aug. 21 came. Upton blasted two homers that day, and the switch was effectively jammed into the “on” position. He went on to hit 18 homers with 41 RBIs and a .303 average in only 37 games (152 PAs) to inconceivably end his season with his highest homer total (31) since 2011. He’s still a top bat, but boy are those streaks wild.
16. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA – Stanton’s 2016 was a roller coaster of emotions and streaks, with him flying high as he hoisted the Home Run Derby trophy and also crazy low in May when he could only muster a .173 average with only four round-trippers on the month. That month also housed a horrid 35.2% strikeout rate, as many toyed with the idea that Barry Bonds was trying to recreate Stanton’s swing. Fan theories aside, the performance clearly plummeted for extended periods of time but the raw strength and power is still there. His “bad” season still resulted in 27 homers in only 470 PAs. Not a bad bet.
17. Mark Trumbo, BAL – I mean, did you think we’d forget the guy who led the MLB with 47 home runs? Trumbo made himself right at home in Camden Yards, but notably hit 25 dingers in Baltimore and 22 on the road. However he wasn’t able to stave off his familiar foe on the second-half split. He hit 28 homers with a .288 average before the All-Star break, but only hit .214 after that. At least he still blasted 19 homers to maintain value. Pay attention to where he lands, but this is as powerful a guy as any.
18. Khris Davis, OAK – So your HR leader over the last two seasons combined is Nelson Cruz with 87 dingers, but if you change the start date to Aug. 1, 2015…guess who has more than Cruz (60)? Khris Davis, with 62. This guy is a tank, and while many suspected that his power would fall off due to his moving to pitcher-friendly Oakland from hitter-friendly Milwaukee, it just didn’t break that way. Like Cruz, his pop has shown that it can play anywhere, but the difference is that he’ll only hit in the .240s.
19. Andrew McCutchen, PIT – Well, Cutch’s counting stats weren’t too far off from his 2015 totals, but boy that .256 average is an eyesore compared to his .292 career rate. He struck out a career-worst 21.2% of the time, and his 10.2% walk rate was also a career low. Here’s the thing, he did show some encouraging signs in the second half. He lowered that same strikeout rate from 24.7% to 16.9% as he bumped his average up from .247 in the first half to .267. While the sky wasn’t falling anymore, he still has a lot of work to do here.
20. Matt Kemp, ATL – Many might be surprised to learn that Kemp actually had 35 homers and over 100 RBIs (108) in 2016, as his production didn’t tail off at all upon his arrival in Atlanta. With the Bravos’ lineup trending upwards (there wasn’t much room to sink lower), Kemp’s power should give him a good shot at sustaining those solid counting stats in his age-32 season in 2017.
21. Jose Bautista, TOR – Joey Bats was dinged up in 2016 and it showed, as he only hit .234 with 22 homers in 517 PAs. Of course, he still used his strong batting eye and the threat of his bat to draw walks at a robust 16.8% rate, which prompted Toronto to bat him leadoff from mid-May to early September. This doesn’t help the RBI department, but did finish the season as their regular cleanup hitter. You'll need his health to bounce back, but the pop is still tremendous.
22. David Dahl, COL – Another benefactor of Coors Field, Dahl got off to a torrid start by logging a hit in each of his first 17 games – a mark that tied a modern-day baseball record. He hit seven homers and stole five bases while hitting .315 in his first 63 Major-League contests (237 PAs), but the upside you’re after is the guy who hit 13 homers and stole 16 bases in 332 Double-A PAs. When a player’s “adjustment period” includes him hitting over .300 with some pop and speed mixed in, you pay attention. And again, Coors.
23. Ian Desmond, TEX – Desmond got back on the 20/20 season horse in 2016, and absolutely obliterated his previous career-high of 77 runs scored by crossing the plate 107 times for Texas. Most promising might be how he reversed a horrible batting-average trend that had bottomed out at an awful .233 last season by hitting .285. Those who owned him know that was floated by a .322 first-half average, because he fell on his face in the second half with a .237 average. Still, a 20/20 talent needs to be respected.
24. Gregory Polanco, PIT – Yet another tale-of-two-halves player, Polanco hit .287 in the first half with 12 homers, nine steals and exactly 50 runs and 50 RBIs in 344 PAs. He kept the power and speed coming with 10 second-half homers and eight steals in 243 PAs, but his average plummeted to .220. However, the emergent 25-year-old admitted after the season ended that he received PRP injections in the second half to deal with his shoulder and knee injuries. Buy a little more confidently in 2017 than you would just blindly seeing the dropoff.
25. Adam Jones, BAL – Honestly, his season wasn’t all that great all around, but he also battled through a rib injury that clearly affected his swing for much of the early going. He then dazzled us with a wild month of June that saw him jack 11 homers, score 30 runs and knock in 27 guys alongside a .314 average. The 31-year-old may be more of a .270, 28-homer guy moving forward, but there’s still value there when you count the likely run and RBI totals in the 80s.
26. Jackie Bradley, BOS – If one just looked at JBJ’s final statline of 94-26-87-9-.267 then you’d be very pleased, but this is a guy who had some concerns surrounding his streakiness coming into the season -- and they showed. In May he hit .381 with eight homers and 24 RBIs, but followed that up with a four-homer, .218-hitting June. Then he hit .298 in July before dropping 100 points to .198 in August. His power helped buoy his value, but this is a tricky guy to peg.
27. Christian Yelich, MIA – “Christian learned how to hit homers. Uh-oh.” After hitting only seven homers in 2015, the young Marlin tripled that figure in 2016 with 21 dingers and 98 RBIs – up from 44 last season. Yes, that is very good. He didn’t lose his affinity for contact either, as he only saw two points slip off from his .300 average from 2015. Don’t get attached to the power trend as he still only hit fly balls 20% of the time, but a wild 23.6% HR/FB rate helped the cause.
28. Jose Ramirez, CLE – Ramirez breathed life back into his line-drive rate in 2016 (22.8% from 16.2%) and the results were impossible to miss. His 84-11-76-22-.312 5x5 line made him a great pickup who provided great speed and counting stats alongside a great average and a power total that didn’t zap owners’ overall numbers. He grew into enough pop to go along with the speed and plus bat to make him a fine later option.
29. Michael Brantley, CLE – His 2016 was a lost cause thanks to a shoulder injury that he just never got a chance to fully recover from, but the dynamic outfielder should be 100% for the beginning of the 2017 season. In only 137 games (596 PAs) in 2015, he went 15/15 with a nice .310 average, which of course came after his breakout 2014 season that saw him hit 20 bombs with 23 steals alongside a .327 average. Anyone who can be a reliable five-category contributor needs to be listed.
30. Odubel Herrera, PHI – Odubel may not be as good as his first two months hinted at (.319/.425/.449 with five homers and six steals), but outside of a rough July (.227) he never had a monthly split below .276. His consistent, albeit modest, power and speed contributions came together to give the 24-year-old a 15/25 season – a combo only achieved by Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Melvin Upton and Herrera.
Honorable Mentions
Adam Duvall (CIN), Hunter Pence (SF), Stephen Piscotty (STL), Dexter Fowler (CHC), Hernan Perez (MIL), Hunter Renfroe (SD), Marcell Ozuna (MIA), Melvin Upton (TOR).
