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Nick Mariano gives you his very early picks for the top-20 third basemen (3b) heading into the 2017 fantasy baseball season.
Welcome back to the series that further proves that the itch of fantasy baseball never goes away.
We're gathered here to look at my thoughts on the top players at each position. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league with the rankings.
We led off with catchers before hitting first and second base, and now we're being waved into third. Please note that 2016 was a wild year for homers all around, with its 5,610 homers being the second-most all time (2000: 5,692), so my soft advisory is to take the gains with a grain of salt.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
Early 2017 Rankings: Third Basemen
1. Kris Bryant, CHC – KB’s sophomore season saw him fall one longball shy of a 40-homer season, and he also eclipsed 100 runs (121) and 100 RBIs (102) while turning in a .292 average. He lowered his strikeout rate from 30.6% to 22%, and he was one of only 13 qualified hitters with a hard-hit rate above 40%. The Cubs offense should continue to be a fountain of runs in 2017, with Bryant at the center of it.
2. Nolan Arenado, COL – The Rockies slugger turned in his second-straight 40-homer season in 2016, lifting 41 balls over the fence with 116 runs scored and 133 RBIs. Those are juicy, juicy numbers, and the guy is only 25. He still has room to grow, and Coors Field isn’t going to change, so there’s actually room for his ceiling to be a bit higher than we currently think. Scary, huh?
3. Manny Machado, BAL – Elephant in the room: Machado stole zero bases in 2016 after swiping 20 bags in 2015. But he took modest steps forward in each of the other four standard fantasy categories, and has now hit 35+ homers in his last two seasons. His dual eligibility as a SS/3B player adds to his value, but boy would it be nice if he stole a few bags in 2017.
4. Josh Donaldson, TOR – The bringer of rain may have taken a few steps back from his incredible 2015, but that just tells you how high the bar was set. His 122-37-99-7-.284 line is still something to marvel at, though his poor September/October (.222 average, three homers) may leave some soured heading into drafts. Their loss.
5. Kyle Seager, SEA – One of the quietest, most durable and consistent bats in the game belongs to Seattle’s third-bagger. His homer totals have increased in each season (20, 22, 25, 26, 30), and while expecting that trend to continue in 2017 would be pegging things too high, a 25-30 HR outcome makes up a huge portion of his range of outcomes.
6. Adrian Beltre, TEX – After two injury-plagued seasons where he played through some power-zapping dings, Texas’ HOF-hopeful returned to form in 2016 by topping the 30-homer and 100-RBI marks alongside a .300 average. This is a professional hitter folks, and while it’s true that he’ll be 38 years old next season, his safe floor still makes him a top-10 option.
7. Todd Frazier, CWS – Frazier had one weird 2016 season. He set new career highs in runs (89), homers (40), and RBIs (98) while swiping a healthy 15 bases, so why is he down here? Well, he only hit .225. That’s not good. His soft-contact rates were above 25% in the April and May, but the Toddfather still regularly blasted homers and did hit .281 in September/October, so there’s hope for his average yet.
8. Jonathan Villar, MIL - Villar’s speed had made itself known in the Minor Leagues, with brief flashes in the Majors (17 SBs in 289 PAs in 2014), but the Brewers finally gave him an everyday job to show it off. The 25-year-old responded in kind with 62 steals on 80 attempts alongside 19 homers and a healthy .285 average. His incredible speed joined a healthy 75.9% combined line-drive and ground-ball rate to sustain a high .373 BABIP, a mark that he could certainly replicate in 2017.
9. Matt Carpenter, STL – St. Louis’ Swiss army knife made 52 starts at 3B, 37 starts at 2B and 35 starts at 1B in 2016. The versatile Cardinal missed a month due to an oblique injury in early July, but still hit 21 homers with 81 runs and 68 RBIs in 566 PAs alongside a career-high 14.3% walk rate. That power rate means his 28-homer 2015 campaign was no outlier.
10. Evan Longoria, TB – Longo had quite the positive reaction to turning 30 years old, as he decided to smash a career-high 36 homers while increasing his batting average in a second-straight season after it had sunk to .253 in 2014. As with any big surge in the middle of a player’s career, don’t pay for the “new ceiling”, but his floor is healthy and it’s unlikely that a known commodity like him is reached for in drafts.
11. Alex Bregman, HOU – On the other side of the spectrum from Longoria is Bregman, a buzzy rookie who turned in a .313/.354/.577 triple slash alongside eight homers, 30 runs scored, 34 RBIs and two steals once his bat got going from Aug. 6 on. The guy crushed 20 homers with a .306 average in only 80 games between Double- and Triple-A, and clearly adjusted after going 2-for-38 in his first 10 Major League contests. The kid is ready.
12. Anthony Rendon, WAS – He never stole the spotlight, but still had a 91-20-85-12-.270 season as he quietly supported fantasy owners in all five standard categories. His 52 second-half RBIs were a product of batting around the 3-5 slots as opposed to the two-hole, and hitting .291 compared to .254 in the first half doesn’t hurt either.
13. Justin Turner, LAD – Remember his ugly .247-hitting, homerless April? Or his .225-hitting, three-homer May? Not many do considering from June 1 on he hit .292 with 24 homers and 74 RBIs in 428 PAs. His HR/FB rate didn’t spike, and he maintained a low soft-contact rate (12%) while boosting his hard-hit rate by 5.3%. That’ll take you places.
14. Jung Ho Kang, PIT – His 2015 rookie campaign: 15 HRs in 467 PAs, .287 average, .355 OBP. His 2016 season: 21 HRs in 370 PAs, .255 average, .354 OBP. He offset a 71-point slip in BABIP with an improved eye and power stroke. He should flirt with 30+ homers in a full season, which we hopefully get to see in 2017.
15. Jose Ramirez, CLE – Ramirez breathed life back into his line-drive rate in 2016 (22.8% from 16.2%) and the results were impossible to miss. His 84-11-76-22-.312 5x5 line made him a great pickup who provided great speed and counting stats alongside a great average and a power total that didn’t zap owners’ overall numbers. He grew into enough pop to go along with the speed and plus bat to make him a fine later option.
16. Mike Moustakas, KC – There’s no getting around the fact that tearing your ACL sucks, but this was a guy who was coming off of a semi-breakout 22-homer 2015 season and had hit seven homers in his first 27 games before the injury. While his .240 average might have some scared off considering his low-average past, his .214 BABIP was a sick joke considering his high 37.4% hard-hit rate and career-low 11.5% K-rate and 5.8% swinging-strike rate. Scoop him back.
17. Jake Lamb, ARI – This is a guy who was performing like an absolute superstar through Aug. 7. He had smashed 24 homers in only 404 PAs alongside a .287 average, but then a slump was compounded by a bruised hand and left him with a paltry .165 average and five homers in his final 190 PAs. I believe in the four-month, uninjured sample size much more so than the hurt-hand finish.
18. Miguel Sano, MIN – If you didn’t own him, you might be surprised to hear that the sophomore slugger still ripped 25 homers in only 116 games (495 PAs), but his sky-high 2015 BABIP of .396 did come back down to Earth (.329). As a result, his average sunk to .236 and really caps his upside as a high-power, low-average type on a subpar offense.
19. Maikel Franco, PHI – The good news is that he hit 25 homers with a surprising 88 RBIs despite hitting in a rather weak Philadelphia lineup. The bad news is that his average dropped 25 points to .255, which makes the lack of counting-stat upside go down a lot rougher. He’s still just 24, but it’s tough to invest in him as a top-12 starter right now.
20. Jose Reyes, NYM – It isn’t the splashiest move, taking a guy who will turn 34 next June, but in only 60 games he hit eight homers with nine steals (.267/.326/.443 triple slash). If he played 150 games, that’d give him roughly 20 homers and 25 steals, which I’m willing to bet many of you would enjoy. Now expecting 20 homers when he hasn’t topped more than 11 since 2008 is asking for too much, but 25 steals and double-digit dingers from a guy who might gain many positions as a super-utility player in 2017 ain’t bad.
Honorable Mention: Nick Castellanos, DET - He hit 18 homers with 57 RBIs and a .291 average in his first four months of the season, and did hit .273 in the three months following his absurd .464 BABIP in April. He won't steal any bases, but he'll only be 25 years old in his fifth Major-League season and has some room to grow.
Honorable Mention: Yoan Moncada, BOS – We’ll slap in the young Bostonian here due to the sheer upside that he brings to the table. We know by now that he .294 with 15 homers and 45 steals between High-A and Double-A ball last season, but struggled in his brief Major-League stint, going 4-for-19 with one extra-base hit and 12 Ks.
