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It's a fine Sunday and we have a solid seven-game slate on tap in the NBA tonight. The Timberwolves-Spurs matchup has the highest implied total and rates out the best in my model, but as you can see in the 'Team Rankings,' the Suns and Warriors both rank ahead of those two squads for daily fantasy viability tonight. Only two teams come in tonight on the second half of a back-to-back set, and we don't have much significant injury news to watch out for.
It's still early in the season, but we're already seeing some trends emerge and our ability to analyze how each squad plays is getting more solidified by the day. Head coaches around the league are still trying to determine rotations, usage rates, new offensive and defensive schemes, and many other factors, but we can only work with the data we have and build our lineups accordingly. I have provided the results of my "K-Grade" model for today's slate in the table below.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 10/30/22. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Devin Booker, vs. HOU (FD: $8,900, DK: $8,600)
You can't fade Luka Doncic with how he's playing (69.2 DK PPG through five games), but I'm taking a step back from him at his $12k+ price tag as he's playing the second half of a back-to-back and his matchup projects poorly against the Magic. We're sliding down the salary scale and getting to Booker in a glorious pace-up spot tonight against the Rockets.
D-Book is coming off his worst game of the season (25.75 DK points), but he has been steady otherwise with at least 45.25 DK points in each of his other four games. He's averaging 29.2 points per game on 41.4% three-point shooting, and he should be able to take whatever he wants against a Houston defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams.
Donovan Mitchell, vs. NYK (FD: $9,300, DK: $8,800)
I'm not in love with targeting this matchup, but Spyda has been playing so well that he's impossible to ignore at his price tag. Darius Garland is still out of the lineup, meaning Mitchell has full control of the usage and production on this Cavs team as he holds a 33.3% usage rate and averages 1.29 FPTS/min for the season.
He had one letdown game against the Magic, but he's putting up between 50 and 57 DK points in every other game. That'll get the job done tonight, but there's room for even more as it's a pace-up spot for the Cavs (Knicks rank 16th in pace, Cavs rank 27th in pace).
Tre Jones, vs. UTA (FD: $6,000, DK: $6,100)
Jones sees a slight bump in usage (20.1%) and FPTS/min (1.00) with Devin Vassell off the floor, as he will be tonight. Those rates jump to 20.4% and 1.05 FPTS/min with Josh Richardson (Q) also off the floor, but I have a lot of interest in Jones tonight even if J-Rich does suit up.
The matchup is amazing as both teams rank in the top-four in pace and the top-seven in fantasy points per game allowed, which helps explain why the game has the highest implied total on the slate at 237.5 points. Jones is averaging 29.1 DK points per game through six contests, but he hit 34.75 DK points against the Wolves already and a similar outing is firmly in play tonight.
Also consider: Luka Doncic, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jordan Poole, Monte Morris, Bruce Brown
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Keldon Johnson, vs. MIN (FD: $7,500, DK: $7,300)
Johnson is the entire Spurs team when Devin Vassell is off the court. He holds a massive 31.7% usage rate and 1.33 FPTS/min rate in the split this season, and he's averaging a solid 39.1 DK points per game so far. The young forward put up 47.75 DK points against the Bulls on Thursday and while he doesn't exactly stuff the stat sheet, he takes a ton of shots (18 FGA, 8.6 3PA) and makes them at a high clip (44.4% FG%, 42.3% 3PT%). The Wolves have allowed the sixth-most three-pointers made per game to opposing small forwards and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Karl-Anthony Towns, vs. SAS (FD: $8,400, DK: $8,500)
Towns hasn't had a true "ceiling" game yet as he and the Wolves are still getting acclimated to playing with Rudy Gobert. However, he's starting to round into form and his salary is way below pre-Gobert levels. He needs just 42.5 DK points to hit 5x value and guess what? He has hit that number in three straight games, including two against this same Spurs team. We've already discussed how great this matchup is for the Spurs, but it's even better for the Wolves as they come in with the highest implied team total on the slate and also get the benefit of extra possessions in a high-paced game. A real KAT ceiling game is definitely in play tonight.
Also consider: Dean Wade, Al Horford, Jeremy Sochan, Dean Wade, Anthony Edwards, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith (FD), Evan Mobley
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, vs. LAL (FD: $11,300, DK: $11,000)
Jokic is the guy I'm looking for a 70-piece out of tonight. The game environment isn't the best despite the solid implied total; what we love here is the positional matchup the reigning MVP gets to take advantage of. The Lakers are helpless against competent bigs as they're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and the second-most rebounds per game to the position. We just saw Jokic go for 68.75 DK points against them on Wednesday and there's no reason to think he can't do that again as Vegas has this game staying competitive throughout (DEN -4).
Also consider: Jakob Poeltl, Jock Landale, Rudy Gobert, Alperen Sengun
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