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Mike's top CFB DFS lineup picks and betting picks on DraftKings for the CFP National Championship game on January 19, 2026. Who can help us close the college football season out with a win?
There is only one team that made it out of the first-round bye in the expanded playoff out of the eight that tried. It's the Indiana Hoosiers, who feel like the team of destiny. On the other side, we have a team that couldn't even get into the ACC Championship Game.
Did the second expanded playoff give us the two best teams this time? It didn't last year. We can argue that we have the best team still in it. The Hoosiers are 15-0. Who was the second-best team? We may never know. Once again, 12 teams were overkill. Four would have been enough.
I will be providing you with daily college fantasy football picks on DraftKings for the CFP National Championship game starting at 7:30 pm ET on January 19, 2026. We're still going to go out with a win!
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CFP National Championship Betting Picks
I'll make the spread pick here as I did for every other game this year. I'll also leave you a couple of prop bets that look good right now.
(1) Indiana (-8.5) vs. (10) Miami (FL)
Betting Confidence Factor: 5
I used my Novig bonus and laid it all on Indiana. The only teams to play the Hoosiers to within 10 points were Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa. Teams that stopped the run gave Indiana some problems.
Miami's run defense has been solid, but I think the Indiana defense ends up being the story of this game. They obliterated an Oregon team with a better quarterback and better receivers (and likely a better line).
Pick: Indiana -8.5
Mark Fletcher Jr. over 74.5 rushing yards (-120)
I like the Indiana defense, but Fletcher has been out of this world in the CFP. He ran for 172 against Texas A&M, 90 against Ohio State, and 133 against Mississippi. At least one of those defenses is better than Indiana, and all were inside the top 40 in rush defense this season.
Charlie Becker anytime TD (+129)
Becker has scored a touchdown in both CFP games. Fernando Mendoza has been looking for him in the red zone as teams are clamping down on Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt.
Malachi Toney under 63.5 receiving yards (-114)
This feels too easy. Sure, Toney got behind the Mississippi defense. He didn't get anywhere near this total in the A&M and Ohio State games combined.
Ohio State's corners are better than Indiana's, but the Hoosiers are there with A&M. This total feels like an overcorrection to Toney getting to Ole Miss.
College Football DFS Captain Plays
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana ($17.4K)
Mendoza grew up less than a mile from the Miami campus. He grew up a Miami fan. He went to Miami football camps. The Hurricanes had no interest in him, so he left home for California.
Curt Cignetti saw him as the perfect fit in Indiana's offense, and he was right. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and has thrown eight touchdown passes with a turnover in two CFP games.
His nearly flawless football against Alabama and Oregon netted 51.2 DraftKings points. I'm buying that ceiling. Ohio State is the only team to hold Mendoza under 19 DK points since Oregon in October.
Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami (FL) ($14.1K)
Miami (FL) RB Mark Fletcher Jr. in three CFP games, per TruMedia:
💨 6.8 yards per carry
💨 4.4 yards after contact per rush
💨 48.3% elusive rate
💨 +0.03 EPA per rush
💨 13 explosive rushes (12+ yards)@fletcherjr_mark | @CanesFootball pic.twitter.com/oBtjyH2c4s— PFSN College (@PFSNcollege) January 15, 2026
Fletcher's injury that cost him three weeks in November may have been a blessing in disguise. Fletcher is fresher than most backs at this stage of the season. He showed that off with 395 rushing yards in three games.
The bad news is that Fletcher hasn't scored a touchdown. Who cares? Fletcher ran for 395 yards on one excellent defense, one really good defense, and one above-average defense. He'll get his yards against Indiana as well.
Other Captains:
- Carson Beck, QB, Miami (FL) ($15.9K)
- Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana ($13.2K)
- Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana ($7.5K)
College Football DFS Flex Plays
Carson Beck, QB, Miami (FL) ($10.6K)
If you want to use both quarterbacks, you'll have to pay down at the captain slot. That's usually how showdowns are constructed, so you know the drill. Is it worth it?
Beck was much better at home this season, and that has been a hallmark of his collegiate career. Beck had pedestrian games against Ohio State and A&M, the two defenses that are at the caliber of Indiana. He didn't turn the ball over, but expectations must be tempered.
We can't just ignore Beck's play down the stretch to get Miami into this game. He had at least 20 DK points in each of the last four games of the season.
Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana ($8.8K)
I love the upside of Cooper, but Sarratt has been the go-to guy in the CFP. He has three touchdowns in two CFP games and scored the only touchdown against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
Kaelon Black, RB, Indiana ($7.4K)
The split backfield is annoying, but Black has been the horse in the CFP. He has 162 yards and three touchdowns in the two games. He also outgained Roman Hemby in the Ohio State game.
This has been a fluid situation all season, but Cignetti and the coaches trust Black implicitly. He's one of the players who came with Cig from James Madison.
Other Flex Options:
- Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (FL) ($9.8K)
- Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana ($8.4K)
- CharMar Brown, RB, Miami (FL) ($6.2K)
College Football DFS Value Plays
Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana ($5K)
Fernando Mendoza: 152.5 Passer Rating When Targeting Charlie Becker
Highest Among All QB/WR Duos in College Football🔥@IndianaFootball pic.twitter.com/ALpuplRPDJ
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 16, 2026
Becker topped 100 receiving yards in three of the last four games of the season, including a season-high 126 against Ohio State. His role has changed with the receiving corps healthy again, but Becker has still scored two touchdowns on four receptions in the CFP.
If he scores a touchdown at this price, we're good. Given the number of times that Mendoza has looked to him at key times over the last six games, I like the odds. If you run Becker at captain and he hits, you're close to a takedown if you hit on the other spots as well.
Nico Radicic, K, Indiana ($4.8K)
Kickers are a great way to punt salary in showdowns, especially in a game that may be lower scoring. Radicic made 15 of 17 field goal attempts on the season for Indiana. He's about as automatic as you can get in college.
C.J. Daniels, WR, Miami (FL) ($4K)
I have a feeling that Miami can keep Toney in front of them, leaving more avenues open for other Miami receivers. Daniels has nine receptions in the last two games, as other teams have done the same thing with Toney. That's good production for a value play.
Other Value Plays:
- Keelan Marion, WR, Miami (FL) ($3.6K)
- Riley Nowakowski, WR, Indiana ($3K)
Enjoy the National Championship, and thanks for following my content this season at RotoBaller!
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