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Kev Mahserejian gives his bold predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season to give fantasy football managers something to consider when setting lineups.
Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like excrement at a wall with the hope of sticking.
These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seems likely but is not guaranteed.
Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!
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Zach Wilson Throws 4 TDs Before Anyone Wakes Up
London games are always weird. For a West-coaster like myself, getting to wake up at 6:30 AM and watch two awful teams go at it every year while one team seems wholly unprepared is not so fun, but due to potential addiction, necessary.
Zach Wilson showed signs of life last week against a team that isn't top-7 in pass defense for the first time. Now, he gets a Falcons defense that is not good to begin with and down their best Safety, Erik Harris. One of the biggest boons for Wilson and this Jets' offense is the return of Jamison Crowder who isn't exactly a world-beater but does his job out of the slot extremely well and takes a below-average talent like Braxton Berrios off.
Wilson may not be forced to throw a ton if the Falcons' offense sans Calvin Ridley is uncompetitive but due to his big arm and the time to throw he'll have relative to earlier matchups, he might task himself with making up for some bad games.
Alvin Kamara is Targeted 10+ Times, Normalizing Targets Per Game
There is a ton of hoopla out regarding Alvin Kamara's lack of targets this season. Kamara ran plenty of routes last week (20) and didn't see the ball once. It's an absolute oddity given the Saints' lack of receiving weapons and Kamara's recent surge in snap-share. His 87% last week and three-game stretch of 80%+ is a career-high. Now, with backup RB Tony Jones out, Kamara's almost never coming off the field.
Plenty of blame can be thrown on Jameis Winston but the likeliest culprit is the lack of pass volume in this offense. Kamara's 16% target share on the season is lower than in recent years but not by an egregious amount. Also, it's not like he hasn't been touching the ball. In 3 of 4 games this season, Kamara has at least 23 touches!
This upcoming game versus Washington likely fixes that, especially after a 0 target outing. We just witnessed Cordarrelle Patterson go to town on the Washington defense in a similar role as Kamara in the receiving game and even if we don't get a 3 TD performance, fantasy production should come.
The Saints have been trying to protect the football too much and as they get more comfortable with Winston as QB, the passing volume should go up. Running it up the gut this week against arguably the best DL in football would be ridiculous. Expect Sean Payton to scheme more plays to his best skill weapon to attack the weakness of WFT's D.
Evan Engram Breaks Out of Slump
This one seems far-fetched given Engram's struggles thus far but remember, he did suffer a calf injury on August 29th which kept him out for New York's first two games. Now, 5 games into the season, he should be back to full health with no limitations and with 2 games already played, back in rhythm despite notable struggles. Engram has just 48 total yards this season on 12 targets and a lost fumble.
However, he OWNS the Cowboys with a career line of 55 targets, 40 receptions, 443 yards, and 3 TD. Each one of those is a career-high against any one team. Now, of course, past performance against a team doesn't predict future performance but the Cowboys have struggled against featured TEs this year.
Between Gronk, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert, they've allowed 14 catches, 209 yards, and 3 TD. Cutting Jaylon Smith is addition by subtraction but they are also down starting S Donovon Wilson. For the Giants, not having Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton means someone else has to get targeted. Kadarius Toney was a big part of last week's gameplan but assuming Dallas takes notice of that while sticking newfound CB1 Trevon Diggs on Kenny Golladay, we should be in for a relatively big Evan Engram day.
Robby Anderson Goes Off After Failed "Squeaky Wheel"
Last week, the Panthers took note of Robby Anderson's lack of involvement and matched his season-long target total in one game. Anderson was targeted 11 times against the Cowboys and came away with a mere 46 yards on 5 catches and 0 TD. Given Sam Darnold's relationship with Anderson and the Panthers' desire to fire on all cylinders, my guess is they go back to the well in a matchup that should allow them to.
In the second week without Christian McCaffrey, Carolina may try to keep their run-pass split pass-heavy until they have a substantive lead given the RB corps at hand. The Eagles have not been good against the pass or rush this year so there is no specific matchup to take advantage of. D.J. Moore should be commanding a *lot* more attention from defenses given his torrid start to the season, leaving Anderson with advantageous opportunities downfield.
Nick Chubb Rushes for 200+ Yards
Nick Chubb has been incredible this season as per usual but Kareem Hunt is the one stealing the show given his prowess in the receiving game. For Cleveland's sake, as long as they're winning, who cares how it happens but it is remarkable how many touches Chubb gets given his snaps.
Chubb has played fewer than 50% of the Browns' snaps over the past two games yet has touched the ball 22 times in each. His involvement has not dwindled and in what should be a competitive matchup, they are going to want their best RB on the field to take advantage of the Chargers' weakness, run defense.
The Chargers rank 25th in rush DVOA whereas they are 4th against the pass. Now, this is likely a feature of Staley's offense rather than a bug but given how the Browns' offense runs, they can win with low pass volume totals. With Baker Mayfield's non-throwing shoulder an issue, Cleveland may try to protect him as much as possible by running significantly more often than not. Expect a big day for Chubb here as he eclipses 25 touches for the first time this season and breaks off multiple big runs as per usual.
*Browns' LT Jedrick Wills is OUT for Sunday's game but that does not dampen this prediction too much*
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