RADIO
There are three essential components that go into hitting a home run.
- Putting a ball in play
- Hitting said ball at a certain angle range
- Hitting said ball above a certain velocity
When forecasting how many homers a certain player will hit, these sabermetrics (strikeout rate, walk rate, launch angle distributions, and launch velocity distributions) are a great place to start.
In this post, I wanted to search for some hitters that put enough balls in play and hit them hard enough last year but saw their home run production held back by just not getting enough balls into that optimal angle range. The reason I approach it this way is that the angle range seems to be the easiest thing to change for a hitter. We don't see a ton of fluctuation year-to-year on players' strikeout rates or launch velocity, but there is plenty of movement when you're looking at launch angles.
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What's Your Angle
The angle range I'm concerned with here is between 20 and 35 degrees. The majority of homers hit (87%, to be precise) in 2021 came from that range. Here's the full launch angle distribution on home runs for those interested:
Process Explained
So for every hitter, I found these data points
- Strikeout Rate
- Home run count
- Percent of batted balls tit between 20 and 35 degrees
- Their average velocity on batted balls hit between 20 and 35 degrees
We are specifically looking for players with strong strikeout rates, high exit velocities on batted balls in the given angle range, but low percentages of their batted balls landing in that range. This will give us a list of players capable of hitting more home runs if they can only change their launch angle profile a bit.
Results
First, let's establish what the league averages are for the numbers we're interested in. I'm only looking at the averages amongst qualified hitters (300+ PAs in this case).
| Category | Average |
| K% | 21.9% |
| HR Angle% | 36.9% |
| Avg Velo | 86.1 |
Now, on to the player names!
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
As if you needed any more reason to be excited about Soto as a hitter, he is the biggest standout in this analysis.
| Category | Soto |
| K% | 14.2% |
| HR Angle% | 27.1% |
| Avg Velo | 89.7 |
Soto does a lot of walking, which takes some opportunity for home runs, but he eases that burden by very rarely striking out. When he does put a ball in play he pounds it. The one thing he has "struggled with" in his career is this launch angle stuff. That may be somewhat by design, but it remains true that if he does stumble into a year where he raises this home run angle rate number to 40%, it's going to be some kind of year for the big man.
Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles
| Category | Hays |
| K% | 20.2% |
| HR Angle% | 28.1% |
| Avg Velo | 88.6 |
A former top prospect, Hays has not quite been able to put together that great fantasy season yet, but maybe it's too early to give up hope. The Camden Yards alterations aren't helping his cause, but everything else here screams that he could hit more home runs with a slight shift in his launch angle profile.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
| Category | Marte |
| K% | 16.0% |
| HR Angle% | 28.1% |
| Avg Velo | 89.0 |
He only racked up 371 plate appearances last year, but he made a ton of loud contact when he was in the batter's box. His strikeout rate and exit velocity numbers really stand out, so we could be in for a huge power display in 2022 if more of these batted balls fall into that optimal angle range, and I'm betting on that happening.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
| Category | Vlad |
| K% | 15.8% |
| HR Angle% | 28.2% |
| Avg Velo | 91.4 |
To think this guy hit 48 homers last year even while leaving some on the table with an unfriendly launch angle profile is pretty wild to see. He was the guy early on in his career who just couldn't get the ball off the ground, and while he improved on that last year, there appears to be even more room for growth with a low 28.2% mark here.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
| Category | Jazz |
| K% | 28.6% |
| HR Angle% | 30.2% |
| Avg Velo | 87.9 |
He is much higher on the K% scale, but I wanted to give him a section here. Jazz hit the ball hard enough to matter last year, but did not get a ton of batted balls into this angle range.
Other Names Standing Out
- Corey Seager (16% K%, 30.3% Angle%, 90.2 exit velo)
- Brendan Rodgers (20% K%, 30.5% Angle%, 87.2 exit velo)
- Wander Franco (12% K%, 30.6% Angle%, 87.1 exit velo)
- Hunter Renfroe (23% K%, 30.7% Angle%, 90.4 exit velo)
- Mitch Haniger (25% K%, 31% Angle%, 90.7 exit velo)
- Josh Donaldson (21% K%, 31.9% Angle%, 92.1 exit velo)
Full Data
Here is the full data, unrestricted except for the 300 PA cutoff. You can comb through it and see what other players stand out, keeping in mind those league averages I posted above. Enjoy!
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