RADIO
We have a typically-small five-game Saturday slate on tap tonight, and it's not going to be the easiest night to dissect as value appears to be slim outside of OKC. The top two games to target look to be the Bucks-Blazers and Heat-Hornets as those matchups hold high totals and weak defense on the Blazers and Hornets side of the ball.
The Suns-Wizards game could also provide some intrigue and there are plays to pluck out of the Thunder-Kings and Knicks-Lakers contests, so it's a pretty wide open slate where we're going to have to get creative with our builds - unless value opens up as the day moves along.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 2/5/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model. Let's get to it, good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Anfernee Simons - PG/SG, POR vs. MIL ($6,600 DK, $6,500 FD)
Simons averages 1.05 FPTS/min with Lillard, Little, Covington, and Powell off the floor, as they will be tonight. That will certainly get the job done at his depressed pricing, as even just an average game should see him easily reaching 5x value tonight. He does have a floor that pops up from time to time, but he's also a player who can hit the 40-50+ DK point mark and not a lot of mid-range players have that ability. The Bucks have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to PG's over their last 10 games, and they're allowing the second-most three-pointers made to the position over that span. Simons shoots over seven three-pointers per game and his best games come when he's hot from deep - we could be in store for one of those outings tonight.
Terry Rozier - PG/SG, CHA vs. MIA ($7,200 DK, $6,700 FD)
You can take some shots on the upside of LaMelo Ball in this spot, but he's very cost-prohibitive and his positional matchup is as bad as it can possibly get with the Heat ranking #1 against opposing point guards this season. I'd rather get to the more affordable Rozier, who isn't nearly as exciting but has a much better shot at reaching and exceeding 5x value tonight. The veteran is averaging about 1.00 FPTS/min and he has played at least 40 minutes in each of his last three games. This is a back-to-back situation, but Rozier should still come close to his full run and he may see a little more usage than normal with the assumption that the Heat keep up their typical stifling PG defense. The Heat are much worse at defending shooting guards, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. The ceiling isn't enormous, but 40-50+ DK points from Scary Terry is definitely in play tonight.
OKC Mid-Range and Value (all positions):
FanDuel (in order): Bazley, Giddey, Diakite, Williams, Jerome, Mann, Dort
DraftKings (in order): Bazley, Jerome, Diakite, Mann, Williams, Giddey, Dort
I'll start by saying you should strongly consider setting a hard cap for the amount of Thunder you want in the same lineup - three on both sites seems reasonable. The Thunder still don't have Gilgeous-Alexander, Robinson-Earl, and Wiggins in the lineup and their entire roster is underpriced in a golden matchup against the Kings, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game in the NBA. The problem is that it's the Thunder, one of the worst offensive teams in the league and a squad that perpetually carries the lowest implied total on the slate (as they do tonight). We're forced to mix and match them as value pieces on this slate, and working in one of the higher-ceiling guys like Bazley (both sites) or Giddey (FanDuel) makes a ton of sense. Dort can be thrown in as well, but his price isn't as appealing relative to the rest of these guys. Jerome, Mann, and Williams are all similarly priced, low-ceiling "minutes" plays. Mann has the top tournament appeal of the three as he has the best chance at seeing elevated minutes and hitting a 7-8x value game. Jerome Diakite is the ultimate wild card at minimum salary - he played 30 minutes and scored 29.25 out of nowhere in his last game and would destroy value with a similar performance tonight.
Others to consider: C.J. McCollum ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD), Immanuel Quickley ($3,700 DK), Dennis Smith Jr. ($3,200 DK), Aaron Holiday ($3,000 DK)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jimmy Butler - SG/SF, MIA vs. CHA ($9,500 DK, $9,400 FD)
Butler fell way short of value with just 30.25 DK points in his last time out, but that was a bit of an anomaly game for him as he only played 25 minutes in the loss. Prior to that letdown, he played 30, 52, and 37 minutes while scoring 48, 80.75, and 54.5 DK points, respectively. Giannis, LeBron, and AD are the only other players on this slate who possess the ability to get to 80 DK points, and they all cost quite a bit more. Butler's matchup against the Hornets is elite - Giannis is the only high-salary player with a better game environment than Butler tonight. The game features a high implied total and fast projected pace, while the Hornets have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game overall and seventh-most fantasy points per game to small forwards this season.
CJ Elleby - SG/SF, POR vs. MIL ($3,000 DK, $3,800 FD)
This pick is entirely dependent on everything breaking right with the news today, because if it does, Elleby will get another start and play 25+ minutes at a rock-bottom salary. Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, and Keon Johnson were recently acquired in a trade for Norman Powell and Robert Covington, and the trio's availability is up in the air for tonight. Additionally, Larry Nance Jr. is questionable to make his return to the lineup. If all four are out, Elleby jumps to the top of the value board tonight. He saw 27 minutes and put up 22.5 DK points in his first start of the season on Friday, and there's no reason they wouldn't just go back to him again tonight. The game environment is as good as it gets on tonight's slate - getting good value from this game could be a huge key.
Bobby Portis - PF/C, MIL vs. POR ($6,100 DK, $6,000 FD)
Others to consider: RJ Barrett ($6,200 FD), Gordon Hayward ($5,900 DK, $5,600 FD), P.J. Tucker ($3,900 DK)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jusuf Nurkic - C, POR vs. MIL ($8,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
There's a slim chance that the potential return of Larry Nance Jr. could put a dent in Nurkic's minutes and ceiling, but I don't see that happening with the way Nurk has been performing over the last month or so. He's regularly seeing minutes in the low-to-mid 30's now, and that has unsurprisingly unlocked his consistency and ceiling for DFS purposes. There's still an ugly floor present, which makes him more of a tournament play, but he's hitting 40+ DK points more often than not and has put up at least 62 DK points twice since 1/17 - that's something we haven't seen from the big man to this point. The Bucks rank really well against opposing centers, but this is the top game environment on the slate and I don't want to stray too far away from Nurkic at a very-thin center position tonight.
Others to consider: Thomas Bryant ($3,300 DK), Richaun Holmes ($5,100 DK, $5,300 FD), Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DK, $7,400 FD)
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