RADIO
A month. Almost a freaking month! That's the time we've been sitting here with no UFC events to cover as we transitioned from the very forgettable 2021 to a hopefully-better 2022. And I'm not talking precisely about MMA fighting if you know what I'm saying. Good for us, though, the top-tier artists doing it out there on Dana's promo are back on our radars starting this upcoming Saturday when we will figuratively fly back to the Vegas APEX to rejoin the fighting circuit after such a wide hiatus.
White, of course, is a smart man. That's why he's putting together a good-not-great card that will only serve as the hype-builder to what is coming on Jan. 22: UFC 270, Ngannou, and Gane. But focusing on what is on tape next, we will get to enjoy a couple of low-weight men trying to snatch a W in Kattar and Chikadze, both elite Featherweight foes. That will only close a night packed full of fights, so let's get to breaking down the main card before it's too late!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 46: Kattar vs. Chikadze on 01/15/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Giga Chikadze, $9300 - vs. Calvin Kattar
Chikadze's record in the UFC: perfect 7-0. Kattar's: 6-3. Not much of a story here. Or is it? Well, boiling things down to these two's records is a little bit of a low-effort approach to analyzing this or any other fight. But the truth is that Chikadze has been a freaking thunderstorm while fighting in Dana's playground. Not only has Giga defeated all of his opponents, but he's also on an ongoing three-fight KO-streak in which he's dropped three straight foes in the first (x2) and 1:44 into the third round easily. Oh, and he's amassed that 7-0 run starting as recently as Sep. of 2019.
Kattar, although on a curious 2-1 steady trend through all of his UFC career never putting three wins together, has been fantastic himself. In fact, he's sandwiched his two decision wins with four KOs including three in the past three calendar years. He's 2-1 since the start of 2020 and only dropped one of late (as in, one year ago) to an all-timer in Max Holloway. Kattar should have the volume edge over Chikadze (don't expect any grappling/active takedown-chasing), but Giga has been so deadly and impeccable that betting against him would be borderline malpractice.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Katlyn Chookagian, $8900 - vs. Jennifer Maia
None of these two has been able to grab full hold of a great run of results of late. Sure thing, Katlyn has been good for a couple of Ws in a row in the past year and change, but at the end of the day, she's 2-1 since October of 2020 while compared to Maia's similar 2-1 record in that span, only she sandwiched her loss with a couple of Ws, one via decision, the other one ending with a first-round submission. Too bad for Maia, though, is the fact that her lone loss was to Valentina Shevchenko as Jennifer fought for the belt for her first and only time career-wise.
Chookagian also had a chance at defeating Valentina back in February 2020 but couldn't top the champ either. Neither Katlyn nor Maia actively go for takedowns (though they have been good when doing it, with success rates of 100% and 50% when attempting TDs), instead banking on heavy-hitting and striking volume. Maia disappointed a bit against Shevchenko throwing just 88 SSA but bounced back with 265 SSA in her last fight. Chookagian somehow topped that herself with 292 attempts in her last one, landing 127 of those. Katlyn throws SS at a slightly higher rate and lands a bit more of them, so even though this one projects as a tight one, I'd bet on Chookagian getting the W and putting together her first three-fight winning streak since she did for the last time in a 2017-18 span.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Royval, $8800 - vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Royval will enter the Octagon this weekend hoping to do exactly what Bontorin accomplished last May: winning his fifth fight after going 2-2 in her first four having won two only to then drop two more before that fifth outing. Royval hit the ground running winning his first two fights in the UFC via second-round submission--without even attempting more than one takedown! That only led to a first-round KO loss and a second-round defeat via submission last August, though, in a rather bland couple of outings.
Bontorin, on the other side this Saturday, did something kinda similar with a decision W, a TKO victory, and then a decision and a KO-against in his next two fights. Good for him Bontoring came back to the Octagon only two months after his second loss and was good enough for a decision victory in which he fought his best non-KO-W bout to date. He landed 72 of 124 SSA and also his lone takedown attempt. These two carry some takedown/grappling upside and are good at bringing foes down to the mat, though they have done so in super low volume to this day. Royval has two submission victories, though, making him a serious threat to Bontorin on that front. Royval has thrown more strikes but has a KO against, while Bontorin throws fewer but already knocked an opponent. Give me Roybal with his third submission and a bounceback W to mimic Bontorin's current record.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Chase Sherman, $7700 - vs. Jake Collier
This truly feels like a last-chance-fancy-pants to the two of Collier and Sherman. They are both on an ongoing two-fight losing streak. Sherman is actually 1-4 since the start of 2018, while Collier is just a bit better 1-3 since 2017. Both fighters stayed off the Octagon for a year and a half (Sherman) and two years and a half (Collier) and their comebacks, well, let's say weren't as good as they probably had hoped.
All things considered, Sherman has kind of looked better than Collier reaching the final buzzer in his two losses of 2021 while throwing at least 192 SSA and landing 88+ in the two fights. He was good for 44 and lastly 58.5 DKFP, and his lone victory since that 1.5-year hiatus came via second-round KO. Collier, though launching 281 SSA and landing 103 of them, finished with 65 DKFP after only going for a measly 1.5 FP in his prior fight... a 45-second KO against Tom Aspinall in July 2020. Sherman has been the steadier striker career-wise. None of these two inspires anything even remotely close to confidence, but Sherman should get the W this weekend after looking at the styles and resumes.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joanderson Brito, $8600 - vs. Bill Algeo
For someone carrying a 1-2 record into the Octagon, Algeo has been kinda good in his short UFC tenure. He's reached the judges decision in his three fights in the promo, has attempted 168, 95, and 170 SSA in those bouts, and has landed 89, 70, and 76 of those attempts respectively. Even more, he's 2-for-5 in takedowns with only one fight missing on landing one of his average 1+ attempts. In fantasy terms, he's been quite steady with scores of 50, 54, and 43 DKFP in those three; nothing otherworldly, but at least palatable as a last-slot filler.
Brito is making his UFC debut next Saturday and is a 12-2-1 pro in the world of MMA. The Brazilian is one of the best Featherweights outside of Dana's promo, and although he's dropped a couple of fights in his career both of those losses came all the way back in 2013 and 2015. He's perfect since then and on an ongoing 10-fight winning streak. And he's done it all in those 10 victories: four chokes for submission wins, four KOs on punches, and a couple of decisions adorn his fight log. Brito is a very serious threat for Algeo, and although a freshman in the UFC he looks like the favorite for this one if you ask me.
