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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Arizona Cardinals' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain their core coaching staff this offseason was the Arizona Cardinals, with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph returning for the 2021-22 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Cardinals players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Cardinals coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Cardinals' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury
Kliff Kingsbury has been the Arizona Cardinals head coach since 2019. Prior to joining the Cardinals, Kingsbury spent his entire coaching career at the collegiate level, most notably as the head coach at Texas Tech (2013-2018). Given Kingsbury's offensive background in coaching and his role as the team's offensive play-caller, let's take a look at what his offenses have done in the past at the NFL level to get a better understanding of how the Cardinals offense might look in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Cardinals | 16 | 34.63 | 237.31 | 1.25 | 6.25 | 36.56 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16 | 35.94 | 256.38 | 1.69 | 8.56 | 52.13 | 0.69 |
| Kingsbury's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 35.28 | 246.84 | 1.47 | 7.41 | 44.34 | 0.47 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Cardinals | 16 | 17.5 | 80.75 | 0.88 | 4.81 | 6.5 | 41.19 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16 | 21.13 | 87.81 | 0.69 | 5 | 6.25 | 34.81 | 0.31 |
| Kingsbury's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 19.31 | 84.28 | 0.78 | 4.91 | 6.38 | 38 | 0.31 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cardinals | 16 | 14.88 | 23.69 | 168.44 | 0.81 |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16 | 16.13 | 23.5 | 180.25 | 0.94 |
| Kingsbury's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 15.5 | 23.59 | 174.34 | 0.88 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Cardinals | 16 | 2.5 | 2.88 | 27.69 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16 | 3 | 4.19 | 39.69 | 0.44 |
| Kingsbury's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 2.75 | 3.53 | 33.69 | 0.28 |
Kliff Kingsbury Takeaways & Expectations
Kliff Kingsbury hasn't hired an offensive coordinator in his time with the Arizona Cardinals, so he's clearly going to be the primary offensive play-caller of the team as long as he's the head coach. Over the course of Kliff Kingsbury's 32 game NFL career as an offensive play-caller, his offenses have averaged 35.28 passing attempts per game - which is right around league average. In addition, over the course of his career as a play-caller Kingsbury's quarterback room has averaged 7.41 carries per game.
The quarterback rushing usage (shoutout Kyler Murray) under Kliff Kingsbury has been phenomenal and is one of the best marks in the league among active offensive-minded head coaches and offensive coordinators.
Based on all this information, under Kingsbury, we can expect the Cardinals quarterbacks to get an average number of passing opportunities and an above-average number of rushing attempts in 2021. This makes Kyler Murray a strong bet once again to finish as a top-tier fantasy quarterback and he should be one of the first five quarterbacks off the board in your fantasy leagues.
Examining Kliff Kingsbury's running back rooms over the course of his career, it has been pretty disappointing. Over the course of the 32 games that Kingsbury has been the Cardinals play-caller, his running back room has averaged 19.31 carries and 0.78 rushing touchdowns per game.
The number of rushing touchdowns per game by the Cardinals running backs under Kliff Kingsbury has been slightly above average over the last two years, which is nice to see if you are rostering one of their backs. But on the flip side, Kingsbury is in the bottom five of offensive-minded coaches in terms of providing his running backs with carries overall.
This low number of carries per game is concerning if you are rostering one of the Cardinals running backs. But from a fantasy perspective, this usage can be offset a bit if Kingsbury tends to roll with a bell-cow approach over a running back by committee approach. So in terms of the distribution of carries, is Kingsbury typically feeding one back on the ground or rolling with the running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, since this data is based on season carries the 2019 data may be a little skewed since Kenyan Drake was not on the team until midseason and only played in the last eight games (had 123 carries). When you take this into account, it appears that Kliff Kingsbury typically prefers the bell-cow approach on a week-to-week basis, as he gave Kenyan Drake 239 carries of the team's 338 season running back carries (70.71%) over 15 games in 2020. If you can correctly predict who the Cardinals' primary back will be between Chase Edmonds and James Conner, it appears there is some strong RB2 potential here in fantasy leagues.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Kingsbury's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Kingsbury's running back room has averaged 6.38 targets per game.
Looking at the graph above and comparing Kingsbury's averages with the league averages the past two years, it's clear that Kingsbury is mediocre in providing his backs work through the air. The Cardinals running back room isn't the most exciting one to invest in based on Kingsbury's low carry totals to the position and average amount of passing opportunities (targets). But overall, because of his preference to utilize a bell-cow back, there's room for this team to produce an RB2 in fantasy leagues for 2021.
Looking to the wide receiver position, in his 32 game career as the Cardinals head coach Kingsbury has provided his wide receivers with 23.59 targets per game.
This is one of the best marks in the NFL among active offensive-minded head coaches and offensive coordinators with previous experience (as a head coach or offensive coordinator).
Based on this information, the Arizona Cardinals should be a pretty safe investment in your fantasy leagues. DeAndre Hopkins has a legitimate case to be the first wide receiver off the board (definitely shouldn't drop outside the top five) and guys like Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore should be fine lottery ticket picks late.
Lastly, Kliff Kingsbury's historical usage of his tight ends in the passing game has been abysmal. In his 32 game career, Kingsbury's tight end room has averaged a putrid 3.53 targets per game.
This usage is one of the lowest in the NFL. From a fantasy perspective, you should not plan on investing in any of the Cardinals' tight ends for 2021.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Chase Edmonds, James Conner, Eno Benjamin, Jonathan Ward, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson, Maxx Williams, and Darrell Daniels
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Vance Joseph
Vance Joseph has been the Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator since 2019. He's also previously worked as a defensive coordinator for the Miami Dolphins (2016) and as the head coach of the Denver Broncos (2017-2018). Because of his defensive background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Joseph's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Cardinals | 16 | 27.63 | 281.88 | 120.13 | 67.5 | 5.96 | 1.06 |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16 | 22.94 | 226.44 | 125.5 | 65.88 | 5.34 | 1.31 |
| Joseph's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 80 | 24 | 239.34 | 119 | 64.95 | 5.52 | 1.35 |
It's very encouraging to see the defensive improvement of the team from 2019 to 2020 under Vance Joseph, with the defense improving in points allowed, passing yards given up, yards per play, and turnovers forced per game. The only blemish on the Cardinals' defense under Joseph last year was their inability to stop the run, with the team giving up 125.5 rushing yards per game. Based on all of this information, the Cardinals' D/ST should be a solid fantasy option late in drafts - especially if they can keep improving.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Jeff Rodgers - Jeff Rodgers has been the Arizona Cardinals special teams coordinator since 2018. He's been coaching at the college and NFL levels since 2001, notably spending team as a special teams coordinator of the Carolina Panthers (2010), Denver Broncos (2011-2014), and Chicago Bears (2015-2017) prior to joining the Cardinals. He also serves as the Cardinals' assistant head coach.
QB Coach: Cam Turner - Cam Turner will be the Arizona Cardinals' new quarterbacks coach in 2021 after spending the 2019 and 2020 seasons as the team's assistant quarterbacks coach. He has been coaching since 2010, previously spending time with the Minnesota Vikings (2011-2012) and Carolina Panthers (2015-2017).
RB Coach: James Saxon - James Saxon has been the Arizona Cardinals running backs coach since 2019. At the NFL level, he's previously been a running backs coach for the Buffalo Bills (2000), Kansas City Chiefs (2001-2007), Miami Dolphins (2008-2010), Minnesota Vikings (2011-2013), and Pittsburgh Steelers (2014-2018). Saxon also played fullback in the NFL for the Kansas City Chiefs (1988-1991), Miami Dolphins (1992-1994), and Philadelphia Eagles (1995).
WR Coach: Shawn Jefferson - Shawn Jefferson will be the Arizona Cardinals' new wide receivers coach in 2021. Jefferson has been coaching at the NFL level since 2006 and has previously spent time as the wide receivers coach of the Detroit Lions (2008-2012), Tennessee Titans (2013-2015), Miami Dolphins (2016-2018), and New York Jets (2019-2020). In addition, Jefferson also played wide receiver at the NFL level for the San Diego Chargers (1991-1995), New England Patriots (1996-1999), Atlanta Falcons (2000-2002), and Detroit Lions (2003).
TE Coach: Steve Heiden - Steve Heiden has been working as a coach for the Arizona Cardinals since 2013 and has been the team's tight ends coach since 2019. Heiden also played tight end at the NFL level for the San Diego Chargers (1999-2001) and Cleveland Browns (2002-2009).
OL Coach: Sean Kugler - Sean Kugler has been the Arizona Cardinals offensive line coach since 2019. He's been coaching since 1990 and has spent time as an offensive line coach at the NFL level for the Detroit Lions (2004-2005), Buffalo Bills (2008-2009), Pittsburgh Steelers (2010-2012), and Denver Broncos (2018). Kugler will also serve as the team's run game coordinator in 2021.
DL Coach: Brentson Buckner - Brentson Buckner has had two stints with the Arizona Cardinals as a defensive line coach, the first one from 2013-2017 and the second one from 2020 to the present. Buckner has also coached defensive lines for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2018) and Oakland Raiders (2019) and played defensive tackle at the NFL level for the Pittsburgh Steelers (1994-1996), Cincinnati Bengals (1997), San Francisco 49ers (1998-2000), and Carolina Panthers (2001-2005).
LB Coach: Bill Davis - Bill Davis rejoined the Arizona Cardinals coaching staff in 2019 as the team's linebackers coach. Davis has been coaching since 1991 at the collegiate and NFL levels and has previously spent time as a linebackers coach for the Atlanta Falcons (2001-2003), New York Giants (2004), Arizona Cardinals (2007-2008), and Cleveland Browns (2011-2012). He's also served as a defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers (2005-2006), Arizona Cardinals (2009-2010), and Philadelphia Eagles (2013-2015).
OLB Coach: Charlie Bullen - Charlie Bullen has been with the Arizona Cardinals since 2019 and has served as the team's outside linebackers coach since 2020. He previously spent seven seasons coaching in a variety of roles for the Miami Dolphins (2012-2018).
DB Coach: Marcus Robertson - Marcus Robertson has been the Arizona Cardinals defensive backs coach since 2019. He's been coaching secondaries at the NFL level since 2007, notably spending time as the defensive backs coach of the Oakland Raiders (2015-2016) and Denver Broncos (2017-2018). Robertson also played safety at the NFL level for the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans (1991-2000) and the Seattle Seahawks (2001-2002).
Cornerbacks Coach: Greg Williams - Greg Williams has been the Cardinals' cornerbacks coach since 2019. He's been coaching since 2003 and most notably spent time as the defensive backs coach of the Indianapolis Colts (2016-2017) and Denver Broncos (2018).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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