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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/2/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers. I'm thrilled to be bringing you fantasy baseball picks for DraftKings every Saturday and Sunday all season long. The first Saturday slate this season has us staring down a small main-slate that makes it abundantly clear who the contenders are in baseball.
With most teams deploying their number two or number three starter, we can see the chasm between the likes of the Dodgers, who will start Walker Buehler, and the Mariners who will roll out Chris Flexen, much to our fantasy baseball enjoyment tonight.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/3/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Joe Musgrove - P, SD vs. ARI ($8,600)
For the second time in as many nights, the Padres will roll out a pitcher making his team debut. Blake Snell mowed through the snakes last night and there is no reason Musgrove can't do the same as Arizona is quickly revealing itself as a lineup we can pick on with pitchers. Ketel Marte may be a problem for Musgrove (especially without the platoon advantage Snell had last night) but no other name in the lineup jumps out as a threat and there are plenty of K's to be had.
He may not pitch deep into the game coming off a 39 2/3 inning 2020 season. San Diego yanked Snell early last night and Musgrove will have his innings managed after throwing less than 40 frames last season. At this price, though, Musgrove should return value even in a short start with a healthy strikeout total which I believe is the most likely outcome tonight.
Corbin Burnes - P, MIL vs. MIN ($8,200)
Strikeouts are the name of the game in the Draftkings scoring system and no one on the slate has more K upside than Burnes. The 26-year-old righty was a revelation last season as he scrapped his four-seamer in favor of becoming a sinker/slider pitcher. The results speak for themselves: 4-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts in 59 2/3 innings. Burnes' peripheral metrics were even better as he posted a 36.7 percent strikeout rate, a 2.04 FIP, and a .174 batting average against.
Minnesota is a tough opponent, but they did whiff a lot versus righties last season posting a 25.5 strikeout rate as a team, seventh-worst in baseball. Additionally, this game is in Milwaukee so Twins DH Nelson Cruz likely won't be in the lineup and Burnes will have the pleasure of striking out Jose Berrios twice because that's what the fans pay to see, apparently. I may support the universal DH, but not tonight when I'll be rostering Burnes in all or most of the lineups I set.
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Buster Posey - C, SFG at SEA ($3,600)
Some may call this chasing homers after Posey went yard in each of the first two games of the season. I'm calling it picking on Chris Flexen. The former MVP opted out of the 2020 season but returned with a bang in the team's first two games. He'll be out of the lineup either Saturday or Sunday with a day game following a night game but if he's in the lineup Saturday he's my catcher of choice. Posey boasts elite plate discipline with a career 9.4 percent walk rate and a minuscule 12.3 percent strikeout rate. That gives him a high floor which is always nice and his ceiling is high as well if the Giants offense goes nuts against Flexen and a bad Seattle bullpen.
Andrew Vaughn - 1B, CWS at LAA ($2,100)
Andrew Vaughn will be a staple in DFS lineups until the pricing algorithm adjusts for a power-hitting first baseman batting fifth in a potent lineup. Vaughn made his MLB debut Friday night in left field as he's attempting to learn the outfield on the fly while Eloy Jimenez (pectoral) is injured. Vaughn's shakey OF defense could keep him out of the lineup from time to time but on Opening Day the team used their backup catcher at DH. The former number-three overall pick should be in the lineup more often than not and can blow this price out of the water with one swing of the bat against noted home run server Alex Cobb.
Donovan Solano - 2B, SF vs. SEA ($3,200)
The second part of our contrarian stack, Solano is a bargain in the low $3,000 range as the number-three hitter for San Francisco. The Giants are projected for 4.4 runs tonight, not an elite total, but for context, Colorado is also implied for 4.4 runs playing at home. I think the Giants pour it on versus Flexen who pitched to a 3.01 ERA in Korea last season. Most scouts equate the KBO to Double-A and Flexen had an 8.01 career ERA in the Major before playing overseas. Throw in the fact Seattle's bullpen had the third-worst ERA in the Majors last year and San Fran could pour it on tonight. I want their number-three hitter in my lineups to counter the chalk stacking the Dodgers.
Fernando Tatis Jr. - SS, SDP vs ARI ($6,000)
Speaking of countering the Dodgers chalk, Tatis was under 10 percent rostered last night. Corey Seager was over 80 percent rostered in one of the cash-games I entered on Friday. Now, I know Seager is $400 less and playing in Coors Field. But wouldn't you agree Tatis - one of the true superstars of our game - is as likely to put up an elite point total on any given night as Seager is? Wouldn't you rather roster Tatis at roughly 15 percent ownership rather than Seager at roughly 60-70 percent? There are plenty of values on a short slate. Give me Tatis versus Caleb Smith all day to zag when others zig to the Dodgers in Denver.
Justin Turner - 3B, LAD at COL ($5,100)
Of course, we need to get some of the action in Coors Field. Turner was highly-rostered on Friday but was still the smart money, pounding Rockies pitching for three hits and a walk across six plate appearances. The Dodgers are, again, implied for an astronomical run total and will be highly-rostered as a result. Sometimes in DFS you need to eat the chalk; if Turner is going to get four or more plate appearances batting third in this ballpark against Jon Gray and a gassed Rockies bullpen then I want him on my team.
**Potential Pivot: If the Dodgers are looking to get Edwin Rios ($4,000) his first start of the season then I love him in GPP's. Rios hits the ball hard and could go yard with men on base tonight. If Turner or Vaughn is out of the lineup then Rios (1B/3B eligible) is a great option in this matchup.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Mookie Betts - OF, LAD at COL ($6,000)
See Turner above. Betts will be highly-rostered but I don't see an option to leave him out of cash game lineups. He's $200 cheaper than he was last night and will bat four to six times at Colorado. With so few games on the slate and so many cheap options just play Mookie and be glad you did.
Jake Fraley - OF, SEA vs. SFG ($2,300)
Like Vaughn, Fraley is a rookie with some prospect pedigree that is priced too low. Fraley has batted seventh in his first two games which isn't ideal, but he's off to a nice start this season and could start batting higher in the order if he keeps getting on base. Fraley has nine plate appearances so far this season and has four walks and a hit. That plate discipline should bode well against Logan Webb and a Giants bullpen that has thrown a decent number of innings over the first two games. I love Fraley as a one-off to save money when stacking Dodgers. You can even pair Dodgers with Evan White ($2,700), Taylor Tramell ($2,200), and Fraley for a contrarian Mariners stack while fitting whatever Coors bats you want.
Mike Yastrzemski - OF, SFG at SEA ($5,000)
Yastrzemski is 0-for-9 to start the season which has knocked a couple hundred bucks off his price and may scare some people away. After all, there's a ton of outfielders worth rostering from the Coors bats, to Luis Robert, to the value Mariners. This could have Yastrzemski overlooked and he's in a great bounce-back position tonight facing a right-handed starter for the first time. Yaz is a .295 career hitter versus righties (.269 vs lefties) and gets to face a bad one tonight in Flexen. The Giants are my favorite pivot from the Dodgers bats tonight and Yastremski and Solano should be staples in any lineup trying to swerve away from the masses.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- T-Mobile Park Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants (Chris Flexen, RHP vs. Logan Webb, RHP)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Jon Gray, RHP)
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