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Thunder Dan Palyo gives his top NBA bets for March 30th. He lays out his favorite picks against the spread, totals, teasers, and parlays, as well as his favorite player prop of the day.
Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! After a few days away from this column, I'm itching to get back into some NBA picks for this four-game slate. I wish I could do these betting picks every day, but I also cover NBA DFS slates for our premium content and I'm also in full-blown MLB DFS prep, too!
This card looks to be a bit challenging at first glance and some key injury situations could really influence which way the lines move today. Paul George sat out for the Clippers last night and his status is up in the air tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if he and/or Kawhi Leonard were to rest as LA has a fairly easy matchup against the rebuilding Magic. Joel Embiid remains out for the 76ers, while Bradley Beal missed last night's game for Washington and remains questionable today.
If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, March 30th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 6-6
- Against the Spread 3-0
- Over/Under 1-2
- Teasers/Parlays 1-2
- Player Props 1-2
Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) @ Phoenix Suns
Man, this was tough but I landed on Phoenix here and it was almost a process of elimination to get here. I view the Washington-Charlotte game as a toss-up and I want to like Denver at home, but Philly has been playing well even without Embiid. With the Clippers' uncertainty and a big spread in that game, I'd much rather go here with Phoenix at home.
The Suns have been one of the best stories in the NBA this season as they're off to a 31-14 start and sit atop of their division ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They added veterans Chris Paul, Jae Crowder, and Dario Saric to their talented young core of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges and have built themselves into an immediate contender. If you recall, the Suns went undefeated in the bubble last summer but narrowly missed the play-in game and that momentum has spilled over to this season.
The Suns are doing it on both ends as they're top-5 in the league in defensive and offensive ratings and hold the second-best net rating behind Utah. They're 9-3 this month and have won five of their last six with a one-point loss to Orlando (who still had their veteran players at the time) as the only chink in their record. The Hawks are no slouches by any means, but they have dropped three of their last four games with their lone win coming against a Golden State team that didn't have Steph Curry.
Ultimately, I think Phoenix is a much more balanced team and the depth they have on the second unit gives them a big edge over Atlanta. If the Hawks get DeAndre Hunter back tonight, that should help a bit, but I still give the Suns the edge on offense and defense here. The trends line up well for us with this pick as Phoenix is 30-15 against the spread this season and 14-6 as home favorites.
The Pick: Phoenix -6.5 (good up to 7.5)
Over/Under
Charlotte Hornets (-3.5) @ Washington Wizards (230 total)
It's another tricky slate here for totals and I usually have at least one slam dunk (sorry, bad pun intended) pick that I feel really good about. But today, my projections are pretty close to the way that Vegas is already trending this morning and I really wanted to write up the under in either LAC/ORL or ATL/PHO but both totals are already dropping quickly.
The line hasn't moved on this game much since it opened, but I really like the over. Washington plays super fast and Charlotte has been trending up in pace all season. Neither team plays much defense and while I usually favor the under for teams on back-to-backs, Washington is actually hitting the over in these situations at a higher rate (8-3) than they do over the larger full-season sample size. The Wizards are in good form offensively as they just put up 132 points last night against Indiana and the Hornets should be excited to see this Washington defense after having to face Phoenix and Miami in their last two games. I have this game pegged for around 233 total points, so I'm going with the over here.
The Pick: Over 230 points (good up to 232)
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
We are going with an over/under parlay today and one of my favorite types of teasers, when I don't feel like there's too much wiggle room, is a "sweetheart teaser" on DraftKings which allows us to buy 7 points on any totals we want when we pair them together. I like the under in the Orlando and Atlanta games, but an extra seven points is going to give us some breathing room and let's go ahead and pair those games with our over in the Washington game for a pretty decent payout.
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. It's tough because I love this Washington/Charlotte game but we don't have any Washington props up yet with the Beal news holding us hostage. I would definitely be looking to target some of those props once they are up.
In the meantime, I will roll with Chris Paul (aka the point GOD) in a tasty matchup against Trae Young and the Hawks. This matchup doesn't pop statistically as the Hawks have been much better defensively of late, but his PRA number is too low (28.5) for a player of his caliber. CP3 is an excellent rebounding guard and one of the best passers in the game. I actually love targeting him in games with slower paces as he does his best work in the half-court offense at this stage of his career. I think he takes Trae to pick and roll school today and leads his team to a big victory. He tends to defer to his teammates in games where they need his scoring less, but I think he will take advantage of the matchup here and post a solid line.
The Pick: Over 28.5 PRA (points, rebounds, assists) -113 FanDuel Sportsbook
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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