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The NFL offseason is in full swing. With the 2021 NFL Draft just over a month away, free-agent signings and trades are changing the NFL landscape by the minute. Pro days are also happening, as the media catches up on athletic testing numbers NFL teams may have already known about.
This is my second mock draft of the year and includes trades in the projection of all 32 first-round picks. The goal of this mock draft is to accurately predict what NFL teams will do on draft night. Keep in mind that surprise picks will happen, and that consensus groupthink mock drafts in March have almost no chance to be accurate come draft night.
In this projection, the Patriots trade up for their franchise signal-caller and a bunch of talented WRs fall to the second round. I believe we'll see some receivers fall this year due to the recent history of teams hitting on that position after the first round. It's also a deep WR class.
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1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence - QB, Clemson
In the least-shocking pick of all time, the Jaguars select the consensus top QB in the draft in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has everything teams look for in a modern franchise QB including elite size, mobility, and a strong arm. Pocket manipulation and rushing skills are two of his strengths, and his ability to spit the ball out accurately in the face of pressure is special. Lawrence played in a very play-action and screen-heavy offensive system and showed multiple misreads of coverages on film. He will need to learn how to read defenses at a more advanced level in order to live up to the hype.
If he can mentally master a pro offense, his traits will translate to the next level and give Urban Meyer a dynamic franchise QB.
You can read my full Prospect Profile of Lawrence here.
2. Jets: Zach Wilson - QB, BYU
With the 49ers trading up to No. 3, it's possible the Niners already know which QB the Jets prefer. All signs point to Zach Wilson of BYU, who is currently the Vegas favorite to go No. 2.
Wilson's film will surely excite NFL decision-makers. His physical gifts are special, with his quick release, laser arm, and impressive mobility. His toughness (came back from a mid-game mugging at Coastal Carolina and threw a nice block on a reverse) and instincts are also impressive. Wilson's biggest on-field weakness is his inability to see certain zone defenders, especially against lurk or robber coverages. He threw multiple hospital balls to his WRs, completely unaware of zone safeties or linebackers. There have also been murmurs about his attitude, in addition to a lengthy injury history. As far as evaluating traits on film, he's clearly a top QB prospect with franchise potential. His arm talent is special.
You can read my full Prospect Profile of Wilson here.
3. 49ers (f/ MIA f/ HOU): Mac Jones - QB, Alabama
With the blockbuster move up to No. 3, the 49ers appear poised to select their QB of the future. Despite what the team is saying publicly, Jimmy Garropolo will either be traded this offseason or used as a bridge option in 2021. That flexibility would allow the Niners to select Trey Lance and let him sit for a year. I went back and looked at GM John Lynch's draft history and noticed that he has selected zero non-Power-5 players in the top-2 rounds and just five overall out of 32 total draft picks. Anything can happen, but based on his tendency to favor bigger schools, I believe he'll consider Ohio State's Justin Fields and Alabama's Mac Jones. Rumors are swirling that the 49ers actually prefer Jones, despite the internet's consensus QB rankings. After Kyle Shanahan's success with pocket passers, Jones does make sense as the point guard in a Shanahan offense.
Jones had an amazing year at Alabama, but understanding Steve Sarkisian's offense is the key to his evaluation. Sark's RPO-heavy system is a dream for a college QB, but may not be the best scheme for preparing a transition to the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa had a disappointing rookie year coming from that same dream world, which will surely give some pause to NFL evaluators. As far as traits go, Jones is well above average in terms of ball placement, arguably the most important trait of all. He's not particularly mobile and doesn't have a crazy dynamic arm, but Jones is a gamer who can spin it accurately and with touch and anticipation. He mastered Sark's offense, ripping apart opposing defenses and making the Texas A&M defensive backs look like children.
His savvy play oozes confidence, but in the rare occasion where he doesn't like what he sees, his feet get buzzy and his arm is exposed. What he lacks in elite arm strength, especially on throws to the field, he makes up for in anticipation and an impressive internal clock. There are legitimate questions about Jones' transition to the pros, but I have no doubt NFL teams will covet him in the draft.
You can read my full prospect profile of Jones here.
4. Falcons: Kyle Pitts - TE, Florida
With the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones window beginning to close, the Falcons have a difficult decision to make. New GM Terry Fontenot could opt to improve the roster and try to contend with Ryan and Jones for the next two or three years or he could opt to select his QB of the future. In this projection, they choose not to go QB with three already off the board. Instead, they take arguably the best non-QB in the draft in Florida's Kyle Pitts.
Pitts is a long, monstrous, go-up-and-get-it freak, who has the traits to dominate at any alignment on the field. His film is filled with incredible displays of talent, including catches against double-teams, low grabs, and circus-like high-points. His size/speed mix is rare and he is adept at changing speeds on seam routes to fly by linebackers. When you look up "Matchup Nightmare" in the dictionary you see a picture of Kyle Pitts. He can be Darren Waller or better.
You can read my full prospect profile of Pitts here.
5. Bengals: Penei Sewell - OT, Oregon
After Joe Burrow's season-ending injury, the Bengals find themselves with needs across the offensive line. They need to protect Burrow better, and Penei Sewell has all the traits you look for in a franchise left tackle. If Sewell is the pick at No. 5, current starting LT Jonah Williams would likely slide over to RT - a position he played in college. Sewell the player has lost some steam due to prospect fatigue, but his 2019 film displays elite traits in every sense.
At 6-6, 331 pounds, Sewell is a behemoth with rare movement skills for his size. Few 330-plus pound humans can move like him, as he shined in the screen game, as a puller, and on the backside of zone runs. Sewell has elite quickness and twitch for his size, in addition to exceptional feet. His game is not polished, but there is no doubt his traits translate. As a pass blocker, he has some work to do, as his film shows him struggle to stay stout and place his hands, especially against bull rushes. At just 20 years old, the sky is the limit.
6. Dolphins (f/ PHI): Ja'Marr Chase - WR, LSU
The Dolphins seem likely to commit to Tua Tagovailoa after trading down from No. 3. Tua's unspectacular play was probably in large part due to the pedestrian supporting cast around him. Adding a stud WR like Ja'Marr Chase is exactly what he needs to regain his confidence after a disappointing rookie season. Chase is A.J. Brown-like in terms of physicality and competitiveness. He has excellent hands and was so dominant in 2019 that he relegated teammate Justin Jefferson to WR2 status on Joe Burrow's LSU Tigers.
One of his underrated strengths is his ability to fight with his hands in confined spaces, whether that's against press at the line of scrimmage or hand-fighting down the field. He's a twitchy athlete with enough speed and leaping ability to Moss opposing corners. The Ja'Marr Chase vs DeVonta Smith debate should be a fun one this draft season. In this projection, the Dolphins go with the more physical and built receiver in Chase.
7. Lions: Rashawn Slater - OT, Northwestern
The Lions have a need at right tackle and Northwestern's Rashawn Slater is an outstanding tackle prospect. Slater opted out in 2020, but was phenomenal in 2019, allowing zero sacks in 11 games at left tackle. Slater is more of a traditional LT prospect in terms of pass-blocking prowess, as he displays excellent balance and the ability to simply stay in front of edge rushers. He is light on his feet and secure, showing an understanding of angles and body positioning.
Slater's most impressive attribute is his ability to get to the second level in the run game, which makes him an attractive option at either tackle spot. Taylor Decker is entrenched at LT, but there's nothing wrong with employing the Best Player Available strategy in regards to a LT prospect who can surely make the switch to RT and be able to step in on the blindside if he's needed there down the line.
8. Panthers: Trey Lance - QB, North Dakota St.
Teddy Bridgewater had a disappointing season as the Panthers' starter, so I expect Carolina to address the QB position this offseason. All options are on the table, including moving up in the draft or adding a veteran. The fast-rising Mac Jones is a logical choice, given that head coach Matt Rhule coached him at the Senior Bowl. Rhule openly praised the former Alabama QB, calling him an "alpha. In this projection, they instead take the more mobile QB in North Dakota State's Trey Lance.
Lance is a fascinating QB prospect who possesses every trait teams look for in a modern franchise QB including size, arm talent, athleticism, and rushing ability. The glaring question marks about Lance are his level of competition and lack of experience, as an FCS player who has only started 18 games, and only played one game (which unfortunately happened to be the worst of his career) in 2020. Carson Wentz, also from North Dakota State, was the last big-name FCS QB prospect, and has had a tumultuous NFL experience thus far, to say the least. Other FCS QB products over the years include Tony Romo, Jimmy Garropolo, and Joe Flacco. Going further back, Phil Simms, Steve McNair, and Doug Williams also came from FCS schools.
College film is sometimes difficult to evaluate when the level of competition is lower than the Power 5, but sometimes the traits make pro prospects stand out regardless. It's also worth noting that the general public often underrates FCS football - the players are still scholarship athletes. Not to mention Lance dominated his level and looked like he didn't even belong against the likes of South Dakota, cruising to a National Championship and a 28-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio in 2019. Besides ideal size, arm talent, and mobility, Lance's QB-specific strengths include decisiveness, spatial awareness in and out of the pocket, and willingness to take checkdowns. He had only one career game with over 30 pass attempts, and will surely improve at reading defenses once he learns an NFL playbook. Lance hasn't played a meaningful game in over a year and isn't getting the hype of the other QB prospects at the moment. He'd probably be considered a potential top-five pick in most other draft classes.
You can read my full prospect profile of Lance here.
9. Broncos: Micah Parsons - LB, Penn St.
Drew Lock has been a disappointment in his first two years in the NFL, and if one of the top QB prospects in this draft were to fall to No. 9, the Broncos would be wise to consider moving on. However, with the 49ers trading up to No. 3, it seems unlikely that the Broncos would be able to stay at No. 9 and have a top-4 QB fall to them. They can choose to move up or settle for the 5th-drafted QB. In this projection, they go Best Player Available with Penn State LB Micah Parsons.
An easy top-ten talent, Parsons does have character concerns that could lead to a draft-night slide. Parsons opted out in 2020, but was the most impressive linebacker in the country in 2019. He absolutely dominated the game the last time he was on a college field, creating nightmares for the Memphis offense in the 2019 Cotton Bowl. The Broncos need help at LB and Parsons is probably the most dynamic defensive player in this class. Some believe he could transition to a full-time EDGE player, but he makes sense as an off-ball LB who can play on the line of scrimmage situationally.
Parsons' burst is special, and he is a true sideline-to-sideline force, with uncommon 4.39 speed at 6-3, 246. His film shows an ability to stay square and slip blocks, run and hit, force turnovers, and make plays in the backfield. Parsons is a better prospect than Isaiah Simmons was last year, and has a chance to go even higher on draft night.
*PROJECTED TRADE*
Patriots get: No. 10, 6th round pick
Cowboys get: No. 15, 3rd round pick, 2022 2nd round pick
10. Patriots (f/ DAL): Justin Fields - QB, Ohio St.
In this projection, the Patriots trade up for their QB of the future while the Cowboys make the no-brainer move down, positioning themselves still for a blue-chip defensive prospect at No. 15. The Pats filled many of their needs in free agency and Cam Newton is obviously not the long-term answer. Yes, it's smokescreen season, but Daniel Jeremiah mentioned on his podcast that he's heard the Pats are high on Justin Fields of Ohio State.
Fields came into the 2020 college football season as the consensus QB2 in draft circles, but that standing has since changed. In fact, Gil Brandt tweeted that he's heard one team has a 4th-round grade on Fields. While any non-first-round grade is an egregious valuation, it would not shock me to see Fields drafted lower than expected. The former Buckeye has all the tools teams look for in a franchise leader, including rushing ability and toughness. Fields is outstanding at throwing on the run and flashes his arm talent with several well-placed deep balls on film. At times he misses open receivers on underneath routes, and his anticipation needs work, but he has all the physical traits to succeed at the next level.
You can read my full prospect profile of Fields here.
11. Giants: DeVonta Smith - WR, Alabama
Giants GM Dave Gettleman is still chugging along, but he surely won't keep his job if he doesn't have a great draft this year. Even with Kenny Golladay signed, adding another receiver would give Daniel Jones enough firepower to evaluate if he's the guy. In this projection, they go with one of the most polarizing players in the draft in Alabama's DeVonta Smith.
Smith put up video game numbers in 2020 on his way to the Heisman Trophy and a National Championship, amassing 117 catches, 1856 yards, and 23 TDs. He was unstoppable in the National Championship game against Ohio State, going for over 200 yards in the first half. Unfortunately, that game also highlighted the biggest question mark about his pro prospects - his durability with his slender frame - as he was slow getting up after a TD, ultimately leaving the game. It turned out that his exit was due to a dislocated finger, which may not be an indictment of his small stature. His frame is still a legitimate question mark. Even his camp is aware, as he opted not to be weighed in at the Senior Bowl. His film, however, showed very few weaknesses.
Even with speculation that he doesn't have elite timed speed, Smith's play speed will translate just fine. He has a mix of venus fly trap hands, rare body control, length, and route-running skills that few prospects have ever possessed. He was also a contributor on special teams for the Crimson Tide. Despite elite receiver-specific traits and historic production, Smith has many detractors, mostly due to his late breakout age, an accurate predictor of WR success in the NFL. There's a pretty good chance he's an outlier considering his film, but I respect the conviction of the analytics community. His late breakout is easily explainable by the other first-round receivers he shared targets with at Alabama. Not to mention the fact that he's been on the field playing meaningful snaps since his freshman year. Does catching the game-winning TD in the National Championship as a freshman count as a breakout?
You can read my full prospect profile of Smith here.
12. Eagles (f/ MIA f/ SF): Patrick Surtain II - CB, Alabama
With the trade down to pick No. 12, the Eagles have made it clear they will roll with Jalen Hurts this season. Philadelphia has needs at WR and LB, but getting a solid CB2 opposite Darius Slay would make sense. Patrick Surtain II makes sense from a need and value standpoint.
Surtain has been a stalwart in the Alabama secondary the past few years, and his film shows an ideal mix of length, fluid hips, and quickness. Surtain plays with good eye discipline and coverage instincts, but he will give up catches to more physically gifted receivers. He can tackle and play inside, but he will get handsy at the top of routes. His technique is sound when the ball is in the air, as he can get his head around and play through the hands of the WR. Surtain isn't a flashy prospect and might not ever be an All-Pro, but he has the pedigree and traits of a solid starting CB.
13. Chargers: Jaylen Waddle - WR, Alabama
Justin Herbert was tremendous as a rookie and the Chargers' roster is actually fairly solid in terms of personnel, especially on defense. They clearly need help at left tackle, but in this projection, they choose to take a Best Player Available approach in selecting Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle. Keenan Allen is a star and Mike Williams has been just OK, but there is no question 11-personnel would look better for the Bolts with Jaylen Waddle in the mix.
Waddle is coming off a crazy year in which he missed 9 games with a fractured ankle, only to shockingly return to the National Championship game, where he was so clearly hobbled that NFL players were tweeting about it. His choice to play in that game speaks to his competitiveness and love for football, as it was probably not the best business decision. Medicals will be key with Waddle, as he actually produced just as much, if not more, than DeVonta Smith in the first four games sans Jeudy/Ruggs.
As far as evaluating traits of a healthy Waddle, his film is exciting. The speed pops off the screen, routinely running by defenders on deep routes, double moves, and with the ball in his hands. His tracking and ball skills are also advanced, and his ability to win contested deep balls at just 5-foot-10 speaks to his uncommon twitch and athleticism. In-and-up routes, perfect sail routes, and dominating Auburn for four TDs are also highlights. Waddle is special, but the medical will be absolutely critical to his ultimate draft fate.
14. Vikings: Alijah Vera-Tucker - OG, USC
The Vikings have built a solid roster with very few holes on paper. In 2020, they struggled on defense, but both rookie corners improved as the season went on. Adding a pass-rusher opposite Danielle Hunter is a possibility, but addressing the offensive line also makes sense. Alijah Vera-Tucker out of USC is one of the top OL prospects in this class and has the film of an easy first-round pick.
Vera-Tucker dominated UCLA DEs and Notre Dame DTs on film, displaying outstanding play strength, especially as a run blocker. He is a natural knee-bender at 6-4, 315, and uses his hands well, re-setting well in pass pro. It looks like he's going to cross his feet at times, but he subtly always seems to get to the right spot. At the end of the day, OL play is about staying in front of people, and he does that well. The main question with AVT is if he has enough quickness to be a left tackle. The Vikings would likely slide him in at guard, kicking Ezra Cleveland out to left tackle.
15. Cowboys (f/ NE): Jaycee Horn - CB, South Carolina
With Dak Prescott locked up, the Cowboys need to improve the defense. Dallas could use help at all three levels, but after trading down into the teens, it would make sense to add one of the top CB prospects in the draft.
In this projection, Jaycee Horn of South Carolina would represent great value as possibly the best pure cover corner in the draft. Horn has the innate coverage ability of a Pro Bowl corner, showcasing his ability to run routes for opposing WRs on film. He dominated Auburn's Seth Williams, proving that he can perform against size. He also showed an ability to cover the whip route, one of the most difficult routes to match in man, twice on film. Fluid and long with great eyes, Horn has the potential to excel in a man or zone scheme.
16. Cardinals: Trevon Moehrig - S, TCU
The Cardinals have a need at safety and TCU's Trevon Moehrig is the top safety prospect in this class. Some might consider it a reach, but in this projection they decide to select the best player in this class at a need position. The Cardinals must improve on the defensive side of the ball as the rest of the NFC West gets better on offense.
Moehrig is an instinctive, playmaking prospect with ideal size at 6-2, 203. He plays fast and can play both in the box and deep at the next level. A solid open-field tackler, Moehrig probably isn't a man-to-man guy in the NFL, but shows terrific instincts and ball skills on film. He is also frequently communicating pre-snap, and his leadership and smarts show up in his play.
17. Raiders: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah - LB, Notre Dame
The Raiders have been disappointing under head coach Jon Gruden and GM Mike Mayock. Despite working with a lot of draft picks, they have yet to make the playoffs under this regime. The roster doesn't have many positional holes on paper, but too many high picks have underperformed the past two seasons. The Raiders need help on defense and Jeremiah Owusus-Koramoah makes sense as a Best Player Available selection at No. 17. Corey Littleton did not play well in his first year as a Raider, and Raekwon McMillion is a free agent.
JOK has the potential to be a Darius Leonard-like impact second-level defender. He's an athletic marvel who plays a different speed than everyone else on the field. He closes space like lightning and has highlights of huge hits, forced fumbles, and an intercepted pitch against Clemson (see below). He's theoretically good in coverage, although there are limited reps of him displaying that ability on film. The best thing about studying JOK is that he has film against the top two RBs in this class - Travis Etienne of Clemson and Najee Harris of Alabama. He showed the ability to finish tackles and defeat blocks versus both of them.
*PROJECTED TRADE*
Titans get: No. 18
Dolphins get: No. 22, 3rd round pick
18. Titans (f/ MIA): Kwity Paye - EDGE, Michigan
In this projection, the Titans move up four spots to secure the EDGE1 on their board in Michigan's Kwity Paye. Mike Vrabel's visual disgust with his defense's performance was evident in many games last year, so adding a solid defensive lineman makes sense. In this scenario, they take the top defensive player on their board at a need position right before an EDGE run. The Dolphins continue to stockpile picks.
Paye's quickness is borderline folklore at this point, and he plays with the same twitch his legendary three-cone would indicate. Paye wasn't super productive in the sack department, tallying just 11.5 in 28 career games in college.
He plays with a high motor, is tremendous in pursuit, and had no issue showcasing his quicks on stunts and inside against guards. At 6-4, 272, Paye has all the tools to develop into a quality pro pass rusher. However, his film is questionable in the sense that most of his sacks do not appear to translate, taking advantage of interior offensive linemen and subpar tackles to get after the QB. While hustle sacks obviously showcase his effort as an important trait, his football-specific pass-rushing skills are not typical of a high pick.
19. Washington: Christian Darrisaw - OT, Virginia Tech
The Washington Football Team could still look at drafting a QB even after signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, but picking at No. 19 likely means they'll wait until day two at the earliest. Whoever is under center will need some help along the offensive line.
Virginia Tech's Christian Darrisaw is a solid-as-a-rock offensive line prospect. Darrisaw has a great chance to go higher than this on draft day, but part of his ultimate draft fate will depend on whether or not teams view him as a left tackle. The 6-5, 313-pound Darrisaw was the starting left tackle for Virginia Tech, but doesn't have the typical build of an NFL blindside protector. While his thighs look heavy and he may struggle with quickness, he was rarely exposed as a pass blocker for the Hokies.
Regardless of where he plays along the line, Darrisaw's run-blocking prowess will translate. There are reps of him pulling and destroying opposing defensive ends on counter and blocking defenders literally 20 yards downfield. The NC State defensive ends had no chance against him. The best two words to describe Darrisaw are powerful and deliberate. He'll have a fantastic career for someone, the only question is whether or not it will be at left tackle.
20. Bears: Greg Newsome II - CB, Northwestern
The Bears struck out on acquiring Russell Wilson and were always a long shot to move up to draft one of the top five QBs. In comes Andy Dalton to be the savior, which is sure to end well for Bears fans. To make matters worse, Kyle Fuller is gone, opening up a hole at CB. Desmond Trufant and Artie Burns are not the long-term answer opposite Jaylon Johnson, so drafting a corner at No. 20 is a distinct possibility.
Greg Newsome II of Northwestern is one of this draft's fastest risers, after running a blazing 4.38 40 at 6-1, 190 pounds at his pro day. This is likely a case where the media is catching up to the scouts, as Newsome's film was excellent. He shows terrific natural coverage ability with his eyes married to his feet. Newsome plays with swagger and confidence, which are necessary traits in the offense-driven NFL. He was able to drive on the boundary quick out, a route that not many corners actually defend. He then matched the out-and-up perfectly, displaying smarts and instincts. He also showed the knack for breaking up passes and staying with verticals on the boundary. He undercut a comeback and showed the fluidity that projects as a versatile cover guy who can play both the slot and outside. Newsome is not a powerful player, but he tackles low and has great feet. He's in the CB1 mix in this class.
21. Colts: Azeez Ojulari - EDGE, Georgia
The Colts were able to keep this pick even after trading for their new starting QB in Carson Wentz. While selecting a WR is a possibility, they could choose to build on a strength and add to a well-coached and aggressive defense. Georgia's Azeez Ojulari has arguably the highest upside of any EDGE in this class.
Ojulari will probably be a hot name as the draft gets closer, as a redshirt Sophomore from Georgia who declared after an impressive three-sack performance in a Bowl win against Cincinnati. Ojulari is long and physical, with a solid mix of play speed and play strength on the edge. He plays with spirit and energy, has a good first step, and is stout at the point of attack against the run.
As a pass rusher, he has an effective inside move and pull-down handwork, but lacks elite bend. At times he can be a block magnet and didn't have his best film against Alex Leatherwood and Alabama, but the tools and effort are there for him to become a quality NFL starter.
22. Dolphins (f/ TEN): Najee Harris - RB, Alabama
The Dolphins need to surround Tua Tagovailoa with offensive weapons and they lack a physical and dynamic RB. Grabbing the RB1 on their board after a trade-down makes sense. It's an added bonus that he's Tua's old teammate from Alabama.
Najee Harris just does things. That's the best way to describe his style. Creativity is the most underrated trait in scouting RBs and Harris is an artist. Coming off an incredibly productive career at Bama (4624 yards from scrimmage, 57 TDs), Harris has the frame (6-2, 230) and film of a workhorse back. While he doesn't always run as physical as his size suggests, his ability to spin off contact, leap over defenders, and make guys miss is special. Harris is more Jeremy Hill than Derrick Henry, but he showed elite durability and improved receiving skills during his time at Alabama. There's fantasy greatness in his future.
23. Jets (f/ SEA): Gregory Rousseau - EDGE, Miami FL
The Jets need a RB and TE, but have enough picks to address those positions at value spots later in the draft. On defense, they could use and EDGE, and Gregory Rousseau of Miami is arguably the most physically talented of all EDGE prospects in this class.
Rousseau tallied 15.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in his only season starting for the Hurricanes in 2019. He's also 6-7, 265, with plus quickness for a man his size, and natural pop in his hands as a pass rusher. When his technique is sound, he is able to play his gap in the run game, and use his quickness to beat guards from the inside as a pass rusher. Rousseau is a classic boom-or-bust raw prospect whose physical traits give him an extremely high ceiling. On the negative side, his film shows glaring weaknesses in terms of technique, using leverage, and staying balanced and disciplined. He will need to be coached and developed to succeed at the next level, but you just can't teach the rare mix of size and athleticism he possesses.
24. Steelers: Jaelan Phillips - EDGE, Miami FL
The Steelers will take another shot at the Super Bowl with Ben Roethlisberger under center next year. With Bud Dupree gone, one area they could look to improve is at EDGE opposite T.J. Watt. There are some who believe Miami's Jaelan Phillips is the best EDGE in this class.
Phillips transferred from UCLA to Miami and tallied eight sacks in his only year as a Hurricane. He has an unteachable size/power/athleticism mix with natural pop in his hands. Although his pass-rushing repertoire is not yet refined, Phillips has real upside. The Virginia Tech right tackle had no chance against him. The issue with Phillips is his injury history. The UCLA medical staff actually recommended that he retire from football if he suffered another concussion. Also with two ankle surgeries to his name, Phillips struggled to find his place in other areas before returning to the football field in Miami. The risk here is massive, but if he can stay healthy he could be an All-Pro at one of the most valuable positions in the NFL.
25. Jaguars (f/LAR): Levi Onwuzurike - DT, Washington
After taking their franchise QB at No. 1, the Jaguars will surely consider improving their terrible defense at No. 25. Meyer has made it clear that he plans to build his team starting with a strong defensive line and Levi Onwuzurike of Washington fits that philosophy perfectly.
Onwuzurike's film is impressive, as he routinely sheds blockers in both the pass and the run game. He can shock and shed, has strong hands, and is quick enough to knife into the backfield. Utah's interior line had no chance to block him.
He's active in pursuit, actually caught up to the speedy Tyler Huntley, and made tackles against perimeter screens, highlighting his effort. Onwuzurike is a real pocket pusher whose bull rush translates to the NFL in terms of strength. The Jags would be getting a solid starter here who can play various alignments along the line of scrimmage depending on situation, which is what he did at Washington.
26. Browns: Zaven Collins - LB, Tulsa
The Browns have built a solid roster with few holes on paper but could use an off-ball linebacker. Zaven Collins of Tulsa could slot in at Mike backer right away in Cleveland. At 6-4, 260, Collins has borderline EDGE size and can rush the passer well as a blitzer. His best trait is his closing burst, as he is exceptional at closing space when he reads the ball-carrier. Some of his production is inflated due to making tackles downfield and some mild pile-jumping, but his mix of size/speed/production is unquestionably worth a high draft pick. His lurking pick-6 in Overtime against Tulane was one of the plays of the year.
27. Ravens: Jayson Oweh - EDGE, Penn St.
The Ravens need help at receiver but could wait until the draft's second night after signing Sammy Watkins. Baltimore could also use a young pass-rusher and Jayson Oweh of Penn State is a certified freak athlete with some really tantalizing traits.
The 6-5, 252-pound Oweh ran a blistering 4.39 40 to go along with other elite athletic testing numbers including a 6.83 time in the all-important 3-cone drill, the most predictive drill for pass rushers. Oweh's film doesn't always scream first-round pick. He makes a lot of plays five-plus yards past the line of scrimmage, struggled with the Ohio State left tackle, and wasn't consistent in showing planned pass-rush moves. However, the best of his film shows a feisty, strong, edge-setter with enough speed-to-power to really threaten the edge. With great coaching, he has the natural tools to develop into a big-time edge rusher at the next level.
28. Saints: Caleb Farley - CB, Virginia Tech
The Saints have drafted very well over the years, in large part due to sticking to a Best Player Available philosophy.
With Janoris Jenkins gone, the Saints have a need at CB opposite Marshon Lattimore, who is actually facing his own legal issues right now. Caleb Farley was once considered a top-ten player in some draft circles, as he has ideal size, length, coverage instincts, and ball skills. However, a back injury has forced him to have surgery, and the questions surrounding his medicals will surely influence his draft stock. He could fall out of the first-round altogether. In this projection, the Saints take the risk with a possible shutdown CB as the potential reward.
29. Packers: Kadarius Toney - WR, Florida
After yet another tough loss in the NFC Championship Game, the Packers find themselves just a few key players away from a Super Bowl. Green Bay inexplicably passed on WRs in last year's draft, but they will almost surely address the position early in the 2021 draft. In this projection, they select Florida WR Kadarius Toney at pick No. 29.
Kadarius Toney is a polarizing prospect due to his late breakout age, but his film shows a dynamic playmaker with Tyreek Hill-like quickness and twitch. His straight-line speed may not be world-class like Hill, but their styles are similar. Toney is a human highlight reel, showing a devastating dead leg and nasty return route on film. He didn't run a full route tree at Florida, but there were instances of him getting literal yards of separation in quick game. Toney plays with energy and an edge, showing grit and effort as a blocker even with his slight frame. He dug out a defensive end after short motion, an uncommon play from a 6-0, 194 quickness-based receiver. It's worth noting though that while his hands looked fine on film, he did struggle with drops at Senior Bowl practices.
30. Bills: Travis Etienne - RB, Clemson
The Bills have built a great roster and have few holes to fill. While a guard is a possibility, Travis Etienne of Clemson may be the home-run hitter they feel can take their offense to the next level.
Etienne scored 70 (yes, seven-zero), touchdowns during his four seasons at Clemson, flashing elite play speed and elusiveness in the process. He's a terrific pass-catcher and has excellent contact balance, especially using a spin move and falling forward.
Etienne is not a bruiser, and it's fair to question his lack of physicality as it relates to getting tough yards at the next level. After returning for his Senior season, Etienne put on a show against Miami and generally looked like he didn't belong on a college field anymore. His ceiling is an Alvin Kamara-type dual threat. The lack of hype surrounding his name is likely due to prospect fatigue.
31. Chiefs: Elijah Moore - WR, Mississippi
The Chiefs have two major needs. First, they need Patrick Mahomes to get healthy. Second, they need to add to their offensive line. In a deep OT class, they could opt to use their first-round pick on a replacement for Sammy Watkins, and focus on OL on the draft's second night.
Elijah Moore of Ole Miss is a legitimate deep threat with ideal speed and twitchiness to run the entire route tree. The main questions with Moore revolve around his small stature at just 5-9, 178. However, size appears to be his only weakness, as his hands, ball-tracking, route-running, and run-after-catch ability are all outstanding. Moore might struggle with physicality, but he can play both slot and outside and take the top off the defense.
You can read my full prospect profile of Moore here.
32. Buccaneers: Joe Tryon - EDGE, Washington
Congratulations to the Buccaneers and their fans on winning the Super Bowl. Last offseason, Tom Brady made the wise move to leave New England for Tampa Bay and enjoyed an epic title run with elite offensive weaponry and a solid offensive line. The Bucs' defense also played well but could use some youth in the front seven. Joe Tryon of Washington could slot in as a starting EDGE player in Todd Bowles' scheme.
Tryon is an underrated prospect who may be lacking media buzz due to opting out of the 2020 season. His 2019 film was spectacular, as the 6-5, 262-pound pass rusher flashed rare traits for the Huskies. Tryon is super explosive with long arms and dismissive hands. He had dominating reps against the Boise State right tackle, walking him back into the QB's lap. His good first step, agility, and athleticism give him the potential to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber pass rusher at the next level.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more draft content in the coming days.
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