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Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings & FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 3/23/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
The LPL playoff picture continues to shape up for us. RNG has secured themselves at least the top two with their win over RA, which will auto qualify them for the bracket's double-elimination portion and three rounds worth of byes. IG locked a birth in the playoffs, but they will need SNG to lose one of their final two matches to eke into the top half of the bottom four. As the bracket currently stands, IG would have to beat SNG, FPX, and JDG before making it to the bracket's double-elimination portion. That is a testament to the strength of the LPL right now, former World's Semifinalist, former World Champions, and last springs LPL champs all before making it to the final four.
Today's matchups don't have quite the playoff impact that yesterday's did, but both are meaningful. JDG takes on OMG, who have already been eliminated, but JDG can still move as high as second seed with some help. They will be motivated. BLG can still qualify for the dance, but they need to beat SNG and get some help. SNG will be looking to hold on to the advantage of side selection in their opening round match if they can, and with some help, they could jump over RA or even FPX.
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Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, March 24rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
4:00 AM: JDG (-1400) vs. OMG (+700)
I don't want to alarm anyone, but JDG are now 7-1 since the LNY break and are charging into the playoffs with the fourth seed currently. They entered the break 4-3 and out of the playoffs, so it should be slightly alarming to the other LPL playoff squads since they will be a tough out. OMG is one of the few teams that enter the final week of the season already eliminated from playoffs contentions. They have done some punching up, taking games from Rare Atom and WE, but I don't know if they'll be able to hang with JDG.
JDG has been middling in the early game even during their hot streak, but unfortunately, OMG is the worst early game team in the league. That would be the one window into this series for the underdogs, and it is what LGD used to nearly pull off a game two win over JDG last week. OMG are middling in the mid to late game as they often try to pull off some intelligent plays, but they lack the talent to pull it off consistently. JDG is better than OMG late, even though that is OMG's main strength.
JDG should roll over OMG, and I wouldn't be surprised to see OMG try a few backups if they fall in game one. They recently called up Kane from their LDL squad and still have Bright and BaFang on the main roster. This match should be the more action-packed of the two, and JDG is my highest projected favorite. OMG could break the slate wide open if they pick up the win as JDG gives over nearly 23 deaths in their few losses post-break. I don't think it will happen; more likely, we could see a sloppy game or two from JDG, allowing some decent scoring from a few OMG pieces.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG - leads the team in KP% and a close second in KS%.
- Zoom - TOP - 65% KP in JDG's wins.
- Yagao - MID - trending upward and still likely to be lower owned than Angel.
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6:00 AM: SNG (-400) vs. BLG (+275)
Suning is coming in off a weird match against LNG where in both games, they were again incredibly passive, waiting until the late game to explode. The hyper carry meta does wonders for SNG as Huanfeng is fantastic in those sorts of scenarios, and his Jinx in both games was pivotal. BLG last played Thursday of last week in a disappointing 2-1 loss to WE. They were able to run away with game one after WE handed it to them, but not so much the next two.
BLG has done their best work in the early game, and SNG late. The problem is that SNG has also been excellent early since the break. They have the edge over BLG in every significant statistical category, and since 11.3, that edge has grown. SNG has only lost to JDG and WE after the return and just beat a similar LNG team. BLG's loss to OMG and their stunning RNG defeat are the only two outliers; other than that, they have only beaten teams below them in the standings.
SNG have too many advantages in their favor. I like BLG, and if they get off to a good start, they may be able to snowball, but I don't see it happening. SNG has been the second-best early game team in the league since the break, and BLG has been the third-worst. SNG should take this one 2-0 easily. SNG also has the lowest projection on the slate, so I'll likely focus on smaller stacks from their side.
Top SNG Plays:
- Haunfeng - ADC - 43% kill share in SNG's wins.
- ON - SUP - he'll be lower owned than LvMao, but is only 5% behind him in KP%.
- SofM - JNG - 73% KP since break is more reminiscent of last summer than the split's opening.
Summary
- TLDR: JDG 2-0, SNG 2-0, This is a pretty dull slate, and I think the only way to get different might be to run some full stacks of SNG instead of JDG.
- Taking a one-off from OMG could be a good move if JDG wants to play sloppy like they did against LGD. That second game was such a mess.
- We're closing in on the playoffs and the Mid Season Invitational. This will be the last week of the regular season in LPL and LCK, and then we'll have a small break before the playoffs. We may get some EU Masters slates from DraftKings and then some combo slates as the playoffs continue.
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