Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 3

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Drew's article is available for free to all readers as a special this week. 

Welcome back, RB fam.  The Remember the Titans theme treated us well last week with a 10-2 betting day.  This included a "W" on the first official big play of the season and a massive ML parlay "W" on the "Chef's Yolo Parlay."  This means we might have to cycle back to Remember the Titans at some point, but for now, we turn to the movie Friday Night Lights.  Do not worry, the TV show is coming at some point this season.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 3 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 3 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+7.25u) 12-9 Total [1-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record:  6-8
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record:  5-1
• 4-5U Risk Record:  1-0

Releasing this post earlier this week because of a Thursday night official play.

• Dolphins +3.5 vs Jaguars - Risk 2.6U to win 2U - Like many, I have been impressed thus far from what I have seen from Minshew and the Jags.  They were incredibly close to beating the Titans and moving to 2-0 on the season.  With that being said, I do have this game closer to Pick instead of -3, and actually think the Dolphins have a better roster.  Ultimately, the majority of betting this game will come down to each individual's stance on the two-game sample size.  Are the Jags playing over their head, or are they much better than most expected before the 2020 season started?  My stance is both, but much more the former as I indicated earlier having this line closer to Pick'em.  The Dolphins being 0-2 carries little to no value to me here, and if you asked me two weeks ago if I could get +3 with the Dolphins, I would gladly take it.  The crappy part is that I'm a lowkey Jags fan because of Mr. Minshew and James O'Shaunessy (one of my favorite all-time guests on GG - interview here).  I rarely recommend this, but I'm actually buying a half-point.  Many will tell you to never but points because mathematically and financially it is not ideal, but I occasionally do it in the NFL.
• Eagles ML vs Bengals - Risk 1.9U to win 1U - PUSH
• Bills ML vs Rams - Risk 2.4U to win 2U - WIN
• Titans -2 vs Vikings - Risk 1.65U to win 1.5U - LOSS
• 49ers -3 vs Giants - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - WIN
• Falcons -2.5 vs Bears - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - LOSS
• Panthers +7 vs Chargers - Risk 1.2U to win 1U - WIN
• Steelers -4 vs Texans - Risk 1.1U to win 1U - WIN
• Bucs/Steelers ML Parlay - Risk 1.75U to win 2U - WIN
• Bucs/Seahawks ML Parlay - Risk 1U to win 1.2U - WIN
• Eagles/Seahawks ML Parlay - Risk 1U to win 1.4U - Partial Win (Seahawks ML paid out)
• Lions/Cardinals Under 56 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U - WIN
• Sunday Night - Packers +4 vs Saints - Risk 1.9U to win 1.5U
• Teaser 7 point - Packers/Chiefs - Risk 1.3u to win 1U

Chef's Yolo Parlay: Bucs, Seahawks, Steelers, Eagles ML Parlay - Risk 0.6U to win 2U

More Weekly Lineup Prep