2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Starting Pitchers

I've already revealed the 2020 Keeper Value Rankings for the hitters: First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Catcher, and Outfield.  Now let's go to the rubber. Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants. The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

The product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2019 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2020). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2019 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Let's see which backstops are worth holding this year.

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JB's Keeper Value System

TIER	SCORE	DESCRIPTION
1	>100	Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2	75-99	Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3	50-74	You are gaining good value with these players. A majority of good keepers options tend to fall into this category.
4	25-49	Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5	0-24	Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value.
6	<0	The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

 

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Starting Pitchers

POS Rank	Keeper Tier	Player		ADP (Round)	Score
1	2	Shane Bieber	CLE	13	98.95
2	2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	3	90.82
3	2	Lucas Giolito	CWS	23	90.29
4	2	Chris Paddack	SDP	20	86.52
5	2	Luis Castillo	CIN	11	77.80
6	2	Jack Flaherty	STL	5	75.83
7	3	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	23	72.58
8	3	Mike Soroka	ATL	23	72.53
9	3	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	15	70.86
10	3	Tyler Glasnow	TBR	14	66.89
11	3	Walker Buehler	LAD	4	66.81
12	3	Frankie Montas	OAK	23	64.64
13	3	Lance Lynn	TEX	23	64.19
14	3	Sonny Gray	CIN	23	62.68
15	3	Jesus Luzardo	OAK	22	61.67
16	3	Yu Darvish	CHC	12	60.95
17	3	Charlie Morton	TBR	10	60.30
18	3	Dinelson Lamet	SDP	23	59.77
19	3	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	5	57.88
20	3	Zac Gallen	ARI	23	57.87
21	3	Julio Urias	LAD	23	56.95
22	3	Max Fried	ATL	23	54.56
23	3	Justin Verlander	HOU	2	53.38
24	4	Matthew Boyd	DET	23	44.63
25	4	Hyun-Jin Ryu	TOR	15	42.38
26	4	Mike Minor	TEX	23	41.54
27	4	Lance McCullers	HOU	23	40.21
28	4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	5	37.21
29	4	Luke Weaver	ARI	23	36.73
30	4	Sean Manaea	OAK	23	35.55
31	4	AJ Puk	OAK	23	30.41
32	4	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	13	29.59
33	4	Marcus Stroman	NYM	23	28.29
34	4	Jake Odorizzi	MIN	23	27.48
35	5	Jacob deGrom	NYM	1	24.45
36	5	Caleb Smith	MIA	23	23.25
37	5	Ryan Yarbrough	TBR	23	20.39
38	5	Mike Clevinger	CLE	5	19.16
39	5	Brendan McKay	TBR	23	19.11
40	5	Mitch Keller	PIT	23	17.84
41	5	Jose Urquidy	HOU	23	16.48
42	5	Kenta Maeda	MIN	15	14.07
43	5	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	23	12.97
44	5	Patrick Corbin	WAS	4	9.85
45	5	Carlos Martinez	STL	16	7.82
46	5	Aaron Civale	CLE	23	7.42
47	5	Dustin May	LAD	23	7.41
48	5	Andrew Heaney	LAA	16	1.76

 

Tier Two

No starting pitchers made it across that triple-digit elite-keeper tier one threshold in 2020, but to be fair it is pretty uncommon at the position that houses nearly 40% of fantasy players. There is no such thing as position scarcity at starting pitcher, but six studs still put up impressive tier two scores and Shane Bieber was only two points shy of 100. Biebs only has a little over a year and a half of big-league experience under his belt but he already has that workhorse vibe to him. He threw 214.1 innings last season which only trailed Justin Verlander, and 194 between the minors and majors in 2018. He was one of only nine arms to throw for over 200 innings with a double-digit K/9, and his 259 strikeouts were third-best in baseball. The peripherals, especially the amount of hard contact surrendered doesn't exactly reflect a top-10 SP, but not a single projection system has him pegged for less than 196 IP or 213 K. In this day and age that floor is hard to come by and the formula recognizes the value.

Gerrit Cole is a unanimous first-round pick after back to back dominant seasons with the Astros and now he joins yet another team loaded with run support. Keeping him anywhere outside the first round is a no-brainer. Lucas Giolito and Chris Paddack are two extremely exciting names heading into 2020 as both broke out last season. Chris Paddack won the job out of spring training but was handled with care as it was his first season over 100 IP. He finished with a 3.33 ERA and 153 K, and despite the innings limit was still a top-25 SP thanks mostly in part to his sparkling 0.98 WHIP. With the gloves presumably off in 2020, the sky is really the limit for the Sheriff.

Giolito took a bit longer than Paddack to blossom but he finally cashed in on that 2012 first-round draft-pick promise. After a putrid season in 2018 in which he owned a 6.49 K/9 and the MLB-worst 6.13 ERA over 173.1 IP, the 25-year-old ditched the sinker and upped the usage on his fastball which paid huge dividends in 2019. Now on the heels of a 228 K season with a lethal south-side offense, Giolito joins Cole and Bieber for the only starters with a keeper score over 90.

The last two arms in the heralded second-tier are National League youngsters that everyone should be high on for 2020. After a very impressive rookie campaign in 2017, I was all-in on Luis Castillo for 2018, which proved to be one year too early. But the good news for keeper league owners this season is that somewhat disappointing 2018 should have deflated his keeper cost in most leagues. Last season saw Castillo take a giant step forward and he finished top-15 among qualified starters in wins (15), K/9 (10.96), and xFIP (3.48). He relied heavily on his devastating change-up which easily led the league with a 27.7 wCH (Pitch Info), boasted a 26.6 SwStr%, and held opposing hitters to a .129 BAA. RotoBaller rankers expect more of the same in 2020 as they have him pegged as a borderline top-10 SP at #43 overall.

If you look 19 spots higher on our rankings, you'll find Jack Flaherty, who joins Cole as the only SP with a tier two keeper score despite a single-digit ADP. It's pretty hard to argue considering over his last 99.1 IP of 2019 he allowed a microscopic 0.91 ERA, 11.23 K/9, and held hitters to just a .189 wOBA. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball after the All-Star break and carries a ton of well-deserved hype into 2020 drafts.

 

Tier Three

Remember in the explanation table up top, I said the majority of good keepers fall into the third tier. That definitely holds true among pitchers for 2020 as 16 arms slide in between the 50-74 point range. Our first tier-tres pitcher has been getting a lot of buzz this draft season despite not topping 121 IP in the last three seasons. Before an oblique injury slammed the brakes, Brandon Woodruff was having a very solid season in the Milwaukee rotation. He increased his K/9 to 10.58 thanks to an increase in velocity and usage of his change-up, while still posting the exact 3.36 xFIP that he saw in 2018. Among pitchers with at least 100 IP he surrendered the 16th highest soft hit percentage, and among those top-16 he also owned the lowest pulled hit percentage, so obviously he's very difficult to square up. This ability combined with a double-digit K/9 creates a very intriguing floor and if Woodruff can finally reach a full season's workload we could be surprised by the ceiling as well. Something to watch for in 2020 is his adjustments after the first trip through the batting order. Last season he saw his ERA increase from 1.85 to 5.05 the second time through the lineup.

Another late-round keeper that was well on his way to a 2019 breakout was Frankie Montas, but unlike Woodruff, it was not injury that brought it to a halt. After posting a 9-2 record with a 2.63 ERA in 96 IP, Montas received an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. It was truly heart-breaking for the lucky owners who either took a flyer on him late in their drafts or were the first ones to scoop him up off the waiver wire, because the breakout looked legit. He added a splitter to his arsenal that appeared to completely change his game, boasting a 21.3 SwStr% while holding opposing hitters to just a .160 BAA, and most importantly inducing a 62.6 GB%. I am very high on the Oakland Athletics as a team this year and I think Montas will be a large part of their success. While going light on SP in the early rounds per usual, Montas is always my target for SP1 or SP2. RotoBaller rankings have him at 116th overall, but if he can bounce right back to the level he was at prior to the suspension he would be a steal even at that price.

If I consider myself excited about Montas this season, I don't even know how to describe my feelings for Julio Urias as he is penciled in for a starting spot in the Dodgers rotation for the 2020 season. In 79.2 IP last year, Urias boasted a 2.49 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with a 9.6 K/9, albeit primarily out of the pen as a reliever. I don't need to convince anyone on the stuff, because we've all known for years now that this guy is a stud but was blocked by a crowded and talented Dodgers rotation. My favorite thing about the stats though is the ability to avoid the long ball. He owns a 0.68 HR/9 across 184 big league innings, and just a 30.9 Hard%. Since 2016 among pitchers with at least 180 IP, his 22.1 Soft% ranks 15th best and is sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Obviously Urias won't reach 200 IP in 2020, but realistically I could see a similar workload to what Chris Paddack saw in 2019 when he pitched 140.2 innings.

 

Tier Four

The fourth tier still has some good names, but just remember your opponents may be stacking up their keeper selections with first and second-tier studs. So you don't want very many of these fourth-tier names unless your options are limited. The first guy on the docket is another of my favorite Zero-SP targets in the middle rounds. Usually, when you bypass the fantasy aces in the early rounds, strikeouts are the hardest stat to make up ground on. This is why Matthew Boyd is always a target of mine. He is currently drafted as the SP44, despite owning the sixth-highest K/9 among starters last season. Yes, there was the ugly 4.56 ERA, but he also boasted the 11th best SIERA. Boyd has looked fantastic this spring and even has been working on a filthy new curveball that should help lower that 1.89 HR/9 which paired with his heavy-strikeout profile could produce a massive breakout season for the left-hander.

If you missed out on Julio Urias and you want another per-IP stud that is being undervalued due to a likely innings cap, look no further than Lance McCullers. He is coming off a year-long recovery from TJS and has never pitched more than 130 IP in the majors, but we all know how filthy he is when healthy. Since 2015 among pitchers with at least 450 IP, LMC is one of only 10 to have a double-digit K/9 (10.10) and an xFIP under 3.40 (3.31). He's only thrown 4.2 innings this spring, but he's already whiffed six batters while only walking one. Again, he won't touch 200 IP but at his price, you can't beat the production.

In last year's bold predictions article, I predicted Eduardo Rodriguez would break out in 2019 and be a Top-15 SP. While he fell short of that threshold, he did have a great season and finished as the SP24. He put all the absurd injury-prone concerns to bed as he was one of 15 pitchers to reach 200 IP, and finished behind only Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole with 19 wins. It appears at this point, the walks will always be a bit of an issue with E-Rod which will likely be a WHIP liability for your fantasy team. Plan an extra RP ratio anchor into your plans and you'll be fine because E-Rod is once again primed for a step forward in 2020 after a torrid 2nd half last year. Across his last 100 IP in 2019 he owned a 2.95 ERA, .239 BAA, and a 25.4 K%. That fire has already spilled over into 2020 this spring, as he has struck out 20(!) batters in just 11 IP while only allowing two earned runs.

 

Tier Five

Now we've reached the point of really just not enough value gained to warrant a keeper selection based on production and where you can get the players in your draft after keeper selections. Unless you are just really high on a player, have an open keeper selection and don't want to risk losing him in the draft, you want to avoid this tier. But projections aren't always right and of course, there are still some potential values available on the list. Take Mike Clevinger for example. He ranked much higher on the list with his fifth-round cost prior to his meniscus injury. But now you look at the season being delayed due to the Coronavirus and now Clevinger being out until late May doesn't really seem that bad. You are talking about a second-round stud with first-round potential that may start at the same time as everyone else now. Obviously those are some "what-ifs" and its just one example, but it's just a way of illustrating that keeper values can increase/decrease very fluidly. Be smart, be creative, and whatever you do please don't just keep players based off of 2020 rankings!!!

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