RADIO
We only have one game on Wednesday night, and it’s a showdown between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette. We’re looking at a 66 over/under with ULL being a 1.5 point favorite. Both of these teams like to keep it on the ground, but score a ton of points. Let’s dive into this game and figure out what to do with this showdown!
Once again, FanDuel and DraftKings are taking a very different approach to college football. I'll be following a DraftKings baseline as it is a lot simpler, but I will try my best to include FD plays as well. If you can't find enough value, feel free to reach out on Twitter @VarneyDFS. I will be around all day to answer questions.
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FanDuel, DraftKings DFS Captain
All Captain options are safe plays and belong in FLEX if you can't fit them as captain.
Darrynton Evans - Appalachian State - DK $16,200 FD $15,000
In terms of college football showdown slates, this is certainly one of the more entertaining of the bunch. As of Monday night, we’re looking at a 68.5 over/under with ULL favored by just 1.5 points. Both of these offenses can put up points, ranking 11th and 6th in the nation with 44 and 47 points per game. The reason the total isn’t much higher is because both of these teams like to run the ball. They still run plays at an incredible place and their defenses leave a lot to be desired. Our first captain play is Darrynton Evans, who has run for 471 yards in the first four games. He’s seeing huge volume and can catch the ball as well. He’s found the end zone in every game and nine times in just four games. This Appalachian State offense runs through Evans and he should find the end zone a couple more times in this game.
Elijah Mitchell - Louisianna-Lafayette - DK $14,700 FD $13,500
The Louisiana-Lafayette running game is a bit more dangerous, but it’s also more of a group effort. Trey Ragas, who we’ll get to in a minute, has been the hot hand to start the season. With that said, Elijah Mitchell is still getting more carries and he’s the best back on the team. If I have to pick one, it’s going to be Elijah Mitchell every time. He’s found the end zone nine times as well and makes for a phenomenal start in your captain spot.
FanDuel, DraftKings DFS Safe Plays
Trey Ragas - Louisiana-Lafayette - DK $9,600 FD $13,000
Trey Ragas has been incredible on the ground, averaging 9.8 yards per carry and running for 548 yards and six touchdowns. This offensive line surely has a lot to do with it, but Ragas is a very talented back that can make two or three tacklers miss. When you combine that with a great O-line and a run-heavy scheme, you get Trey Ragas average 10 yards a run five games into the season. It’s hard to expect such production every game, but this is going to be a high-scoring one and there’s no reason Ragas will be kept under 100 yards.
Zac Thomas - Appalachian State - DK $9,000 FD $14,000
Both of these offenses want to run the ball as much as possible. They still pass, but neither of these quarterbacks have thrown for 300 yards and were talking about two of the highest-scoring offenses in football. Focus on the run games and go against the conventional wisdom of playing not playing multiple backs from the same team. If you’re going to play one of these quarterbacks, Zac Thomas has a bit more upside. For one, he’s over 100 rushing yards and offers some dual-threat upside. He also has more weapons on the outside, who we will get to. With such a high total, I think these QB’s are pretty safe for 200-250 yards and one or two touchdowns.
Malik Williams - Appalachian State - DK $9,900 FD $10,500
Malik Williams and Thomas Hennigan are the top options at receiver for App St. with Corey Sutton and Jalen Virgil to compliment. Both Williams and Hennigan will see 10 targets in this game and I’m fine with whoever is cheaper. If salary doesn’t matter, Hennigan has Williams by four inches and has a lot more TD upside. Malik Williams has caught six balls in three straight games and has seen three red-zone targets. Both of these guys are firmly in play and there’s no right answer.
DraftKings DFS Contrarian Plays
Jalen Virgin - Appalachian State - DK $3,000 FD $9,000
Jalen Virgil is the fastest wide receiver in the Sun Belt, running a 100-meter dash in 10.29 seconds. He’s not of small stature, either, standing 6-foot-1, 210 pounds. Appalachian State gets the ball to Virgil at least four or five times every game and he has a chance to break a huge play at any point. It hasn’t worked out the last two weeks, but Virgil caught three balls for 86 yards and scored twice in week three. The upside is here and the price is friendly on both sites.
Raymond Calais - Louisiana-Lafayette - DK $5,000 FD $8,500
Raymond Calais is the tire running back behind Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas, but he’s seeing 8-10 touches a week and can easily find the end zone in such a high-scoring affair. He’s cheap on both sites and not a bad handcuff if you’re playing Ragas or Mitchell in your captain spot. There’s nothing worse than having a TD taken away by a team with an RBBC.
Peter LeBlanc - Louisiana-Lafayette - DK $3,000 FD $8,000
If you’re needing a punt on this slate, Peter LeBlanc is the cheapest play I can get behind. He gets three to five targets a game and you never know what those can turn into against a bad pass defense. I personally don’t think you need to drop lower than Calais or Virgil, but this is a showdown slate and a single touchdown sways the entire slate. Marcus Williams Jr. and Nick Ralston are two more punts with decent upside.
