RADIO
The NCAA Tournament is finally upon us, which means it's time to get your brackets ready. We've got some great pieces up on the site about preparing your bracket for the men's side, so today I want to talk about the women's tournament.
There's this idea that's been tossed around for years that the women's tournament is too predictable, and while it's true that we see the top seeds upset less, that doesn't mean there's not a lot of good basketball being played and a lot of chances to leverage your knowledge in the games that don't involve the number one seeds. (And it's also worth noting that 2012, 2015, and 2018 were the only times this century where all four top seeds made the Final Four, so things aren't nearly as predictable as you might think.)
In this article, I'll be providing an in-depth overview of this year's field. I'll break down the favorites, look at some of the sleeper teams who could make an impact, and offer some thoughts on the bracket itself and who I'm picking in some of the games.
Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including a guide on how to fill out your brackets. Read our March Madness picks, sleepers, busts and predictions for the East, West, South and Midwest regions.
The Women's NCAA Tournament Favorites
Since 2010, just six teams have made the Final Four without being a one or a two seed, and none of those six won the championship. In fact, in tournament history, only two teams -- North Carolina in 1994 and Tennessee in 1997 -- have won the tournament without being a one or two seed. Essentially, when filling out your bracket, you want one of these eight teams to be your champion, and you probably would be safest having at least three of them in your Final Four, if not having all four come from this group.
Baylor (1)
Baylor is the only one-loss team left, and that loss was by just five points to Stanford, who's a two seed in the tournament. On paper, they're the strongest team in the tournament, but we all know that basketball games aren't played on paper.
The big advantage for Baylor is their offensive versatility. Synergy rates them as excellent in their four most common playtypes: transition, spot up, post up, and cuts. In addition, they've been excellent defending in the post thanks to center Kalani Brown. Brown is really, really good, but I worry this team lacks the shooting they need to win it all. They rank 17th in three-point field goal percentage, but they've only taken 267 threes this season. To compare that to some other top teams, UConn and Louisville have both taken over 700 threes. Even Notre Dame, a team that uses two non-shooting bigs, has made 423 of them this year. I'm worried that Baylor's going to need to make their shots to win, and I haven't seen them do that enough for me to feel confident in it.
Louisville (1)
Louisville is arguably the weakest of the one seeds and is coming off a 20-point loss to Notre Dame in the ACC championship game, but any team with a player as good as Asia Durr has a chance to get hot in March. Durr averages 21.3 points per game, the 16th-highest mark in the country, and she's adept as a spot up shooter, in transition, and in the pick-and-roll game. She's propelled a Louisville offensive attack that scores 0.96 points per possession, the ninth-best mark in D-1, and she's given solid contributions to a defense that ranks 54th in the NCAA in points allowed per possession.
The biggest concern for Louisville in terms of their national title hopes is their 0-2 record against the Irish this season, though a major secondary concern is a looming Elite Eight battle against UConn. Louisville is a solid team on both sides of the ball, but they've got one of the tougher roads to traverse, and I'm not sold on them being able to do it.
Mississippi State (1)
Mississippi State has been strong on both the offensive and defensive end this season. The team is anchored by Teira McCowan, who's averaging 17.8 points and 13.5 boards per game, and they've got strong pieces around her, including Anriel Howard, who does great work in spot up situations and finishes well in transition.
But let's go back to McCowan, because Mississippi State's chances rest very much on her shoulders. The SEC Defensive Player of the Year, McCowan has actually struggled this year defending in isolation and spot up situations, though she's been a force offensively, ranking eighth in the NCAA in points per possession. This is really, really solid team.
Notre Dame (1)
Last year's champions enter the tournament with a 30-3 record that's featured losses to UConn, North Carolina, and Miami, but they've got a really solid roster. The team is led by last season's post-season hero, Arike Ogunbowale, who is scoring 21 points per game this season, but they've also got one of the best supporting casts in the country. Jessica Shepard and Brianna Turner provide a strong inside presence, while Jackie Young provides solid spot up shooting all around the floor and Marina Mabrey is an elite three-point shooter. The team has four players who should go in the first or second round of the WNBA Draft, and that kind of individual talent will be hard to beat in March.
The Fighting Irish are fourth in the NCAA in offensive points per possession behind Oregon, UConn, and Iowa, but of those three teams, UConn is the only one that ranks better defensively. This is a team that has the complete package and should be the favorites to repeat.
Iowa (2)
I wrote too much about the one seeds, so let's keep this short: Megan Gustafson. The senior ranks third in points per possession and leads D1 with 28 points per game while ranking fourth in rebounds per game. Gustafson has been the best player in women's college basketball this season, and her presence on the floor gives Iowa an insanely high ceiling.
Oregon (2)
Speaking of great players, junior Sabrina Ionescu is a triple-double machine who is expected to be the top overall pick in this year's WNBA Draft if she leaves school early. Oregon ranks in the 100th percentile in offensive points per possession and has been elite at, well, everything.
They've been significantly worse defensively, though, and that's probably the big reason to doubt them.
Stanford (2)
The other PAC-12 school in these top eight, Stanford is led by their shooting, with Alanna Smith leading the way with 19.6 points per game. Four players shoot at least 35 percent from deep. I'm not sure I can see Stanford getting past Notre Dame in the Elite Eight, and their path there also likely features a really strong Iowa State squad, but this is a very solid team.
UConn (2)
UCONN IS NOT A ONE SEED.
It's the first time since 2006 that the Huskies haven't been one of the tournament's top seeds and it's also a pretty big shock considering UConn finished second in the final Top 25 poll, but the committee knocked them for strength of schedule and strength of conference, which is likely to be a common occurrence moving forward with UConn playing is the less heralded American.
Still, UConn gets to play in a region whose top seed, Louisville, feels like the weakest of the top seeds, though Louisville did beat UConn when the teams met earlier in the year. The Huskies face one big hurdle, though, with the back injury that star Katie Lou Samuelson suffered at the end of the regular season. If she's able to go at or near 100 percent, UConn's a strong pick to come out of their region.
Women's NCAA Tournament Sleeper Teams
Teams ranked third or lower. A third seed might not sound like a Cinderella, but the nature of the women's tournament is that top two seeds dominant early in the tournament, so picking a three seed or below to keep advancing is bucking some of the trends. Let's look at a few of the teams who have a chance of making noise, even if they're unlikely to win the whole thing.
Iowa State (3)
Iowa State has a good shot at an Elite Eight spot, though it's hard to see them getting past Notre Dame to make it to the Final Four. Like all the Iowa teams, the Cyclones are led by a very good player, in this case Bridget Carleton. Carleton is really good as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls and finished 13th in points per game. This isn't a team that I see getting upset in the early rounds.
Drake (10)
Led by the offensive prowess of Becca Hitner, who's been a 99th percentile scorer in post up situations this year, Drake has been part of a great year across the board from women's programs in the state of the Iowa. The team ranks in the 96th percentile offensively, scoring 0.943 points per possession, and while they haven't been quite as good on the defensive end, they've been good enough there to make them an intriguing pick in the early tournament rounds. (Except they'll face Iowa in round two, so...a good pick for a first round upset, at least!)
Rice (12)
Note: I wrote everything below on Monday morning, before Rice got a 12-seed. I really, really don't like that seeding for a top-25 team that's on a long winning streak, and that definitely makes me feel differently about picking them to go far. I can still see them sneaking into the Sweet Sixteen, but then they'll meet the buzz saw of Notre Dame, and to get there they'd have to beat Texas A&M, who they've already lost to this season, so...pick Rice if you're feeling up to taking risks. I still really like this team.
Rice is one of my favorite sleepers in this year's tournament because they have one of college basketball's best bigs, Nancy Mulkey, whose Synergy profile is absurd; she ranks in the 88th percentile or better in points per possession on cuts, put backs, transition, and as the roller in pick-and-rolls. Mulkey, a transfer from Oklahoma, has helped lead the Owls to an undefeated conference record and a 28-3 finish overall, with just one of those losses coming since Mulkey's December 15th debut. Rice's three losses all came to major conference teams: Texas A&M, UCLA, and North Carolina.
The team also has two members of the Ogwumike family, and while Olivia has played just three games, Erica is following in the footsteps of her WNBA sisters, averaging a team-high 16.3 points per game to go along with 10.6 rebounds per game. The team's also got a pair of 40 percent shooters from deep in Nicole Iademarco and Lauren Grigsby to help out their two stars. This is a very complete team that's poised to make some noise in the tournament.
So, Who Should We Pick?
Like I said above, three of your four Final Four teams should be one or two seeds, because that's traditionally been about how things have looked.
Here are my picks to make the Final Four: Baylor, Notre Dame, Oregon, UConn. Two one seeds. Two two seeds. I really, really wanted to pick Iowa over Baylor, but I don't see two one seeds missing and Baylor's been really, really good this season.
In terms of three seeds, while Iowa State is my favorite in the tournament, the one that I think has the best chance to crash the Final Four party is actually NC State in that Greensboro region.
Other upsets to look out for? 12-seed Little Rock over an injured Gonzaga team in the first round.
Looking for an early exit for a top seed? Baylor could play California in the second round, and Cal is led by the NCAA's leading rebounder, Kristine Anigwe, who averages 16.3 rebounds per game. Could Anigwe get hot and lead California to the major upset? I kind of doubt it, but they have the best chance of anyone in the eight/nine matchups to keep a one from the Sweet 16.
