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Expert Week 5 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 5.
Thursday Night Football heads to Inglewood, CA this week for another NFC West matchup between the 3-1 Los Angeles Rams and 3-1 San Francisco 49ers. The Rams controlled the then-undefeated Colts in a sound 27-20 home win, whereas the 49ers were handed their first loss of the season at home by the Jaguars.
Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay meet for the 17th time since both were hired in 2017. Shanahan has the upper hand currently with a 10-6 head-to-head record, but McVay has the lone playoff victory over him, which led to the Rams winning the Super Bowl. Both are in interesting phases of their careers, with Shanahan hoping that he didn't miss his window and McVay making a few final pushes with Matthew Stafford at the helm.
Can the shorthanded 49ers bounce back after a home loss? Or will the Rams take care of business and maintain their grip on the division? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (+360 ML) at Los Angeles Rams (-460 ML)
Over/Under (45.5)
The biggest piece of news to know for the 49ers is that starting quarterback Brock Purdy (toe) was ruled out, and Mac Jones will make his third start of the season. He's gone 2-0 against the Saints and Cardinals, but the Rams are a different beast. The Rams defense currently ranks fourth in Pressure% (44.9%) and is tied for the second most sacks (14).
So far, Mac Jones has been up to the challenge. He's been one of the better QBs under pressure this season. He's completed 13 of 21 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. He is tied with Daniel Jones for the lead league in Completion Percentage Over Expected when under pressure (12.1%), per NFL Pro. Who would have thought that? But we will see how it looks against a much better and complicated Rams defense that will not blitz very often and muddy the picture on him plenty. Additionally, how will he manage that without multiple top pass-catching options in Ricky Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle?
#49ers ruled out: QB Brock Purdy (toe), WR Ricky Pearsall (knee), WR Jauan Jennings (ankle, rib), WR Jordan Watkins (calf), DE Robert Beal (ankle).
Questionable: DT C.J. West (thumb).
Niners severely shorthanded, while no Rams players were definitively ruled out (two doubtful). pic.twitter.com/WjhpKnSZnF
— Noah Furtado (@_noahfurtado) October 1, 2025
The 49ers' defense hasn't been very encouraging either, despite not facing any high-powered offenses in Seattle, New Orleans, Arizona, and Jacksonville. They are currently 19th in Success Rate (44.2%) and 24th in Pressure% (30.1%). But the run defense has looked better, and they've only allowed seven explosive plays this season, the fourth fewest in the league.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
The Rams swept the season series against the 49ers last season in Weeks 3 and 15. The Rams began the 2024 season very similarly to their disastrous Super Bowl hangover season in 2022. It wasn't exactly the same in that the Rams lost a game in overtime to the Lions in Week 1 last year, versus getting blown out 31-10 by the Bills to open the 2022 NFL season. However, the Rams' Week 2 game in Arizona felt like the end as much as it could have in Week 2.
They got destroyed 41-10, and Kyler Murray had a 99th percentile performance by EPA/Play (0.84). Puka Nacua and starting offensive linemen Steve Avila and Joe Noteboom all landed on IR after Week 1. Cooper Kupp joined them after Week 2, and it felt like everything was going wrong. An aging Matthew Stafford was getting teed off on through two weeks, and they were totally limping into a Week 3 game at home against San Francisco.
San Francisco still had the positive early-season vibes despite starting 1-1, and they were big favorites to win the game with a touchdown spread on the road. The shorthanded Rams stole a win, 27-24, on a walk-off field goal. They were outgained by more than 120 yards, but found a way.
The Week 15 game was a Thursday night monsoon that was nearly unwatchable. The final score ended 12-6 with the Rams ending on top, but it was an ugly game.
From the 49ers' perspective, it feels somewhat similar to the infamous Richie James 184-yard game on Thursday night during the 2020 season. The COVID season brought all kinds of weirdness, including short weeks where an entire position group could get wiped out since they couldn't clear protocol in time. That's what happened in Week 9 of the 2020 season when the 49ers faced Green Bay, and the 49ers had five WRs either injured or out with COVID.
Richie James over the middle for 43 yards! #FTTB
📺: #GBvsSF on NFLN/FOX/PRIME VIDEO
📱: https://t.co/W5bCPYgMfo pic.twitter.com/AuJFw376nZ— NFL (@NFL) November 6, 2020
Funny enough, Kendrick Bourne was one of the inactive WRs included in the game five years ago. And tonight, Bourne is one of the few alive and ready bodies at WR for San Francisco to use. He spent time with Mac Jones in New England and could be in for a busy night as the expected top target.
It feels like a potential spot for the Rams to come in and win by double-digits against a depleted 49ers squad. It will be a heavy workload for Christian McCaffrey, but he can only overcome so much. Excluding the 2022 season, McVay and Stafford have played in four Thursday night games and have won all four games by at least six. Their average margin of victory is over eight points per game. We'll take the Rams to win and cover in a slower-paced game.
The Picks: Los Angeles Rams -7.5, (-115), Under 45.5 (-115)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Blake Corum Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Corum has looked much more decisive and explosive so far this season. His rush share has risen every game, totaling nine attempts in Week 4 against the Colts. He wasn't as efficient as in previous games, with just 21 yards, but he's cleared this line in two of four games. If it's a favorable game script and the Rams have a lead to milk a bit in the second half, that would help feed into more touches for Corum. But I think he can clear this within the normal flow of the game.
Matt Stafford to Throw an Interception (+100)
Stafford is one of the best gunslinging quarterbacks ever, and he's not afraid to rip it into a tight window. That obviously comes with trade-offs, as it leads to numerous interceptions. The future Hall of Famer has thrown seven interceptions in seven games against the 49ers with the Rams. He's thrown two picks in three of the seven games against them. And across the first month, he has been reckless with the ball at times, with five turnover-worthy plays and an interception in two straight games. He also threw a pick in six consecutive games last season.
Mac Jones Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-128)
Jones has soared past this number in both of his starts so far, with 39 against New Orleans and 41 against Arizona. And in a game where they are fairly big underdogs and expected to be playing from behind, San Francisco should be expected to throw the ball a good bit even without their receiving core. Brock Purdy hasn't been below 35 in his two starts as well.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+650)
We'll take a little bit of a shot with our touchdown scorer in this one. Robinson has received a good amount of work as McCaffrey's primary backup, but has yet to find the end zone. In a game where almost all of the 49ers' weapons won't be available, Robinson will arguably be their second most talented skill player on Thursday night. That could lead to an emphasis on the running backs, with McCaffrey already fully expected to receive a full meal, but perhaps Robinson can get fed more, too.
He's received at least five rushes in each game except Week 3. He's seen two carries inside the 10-yard line to McCaffrey's nine. Another situation where it could play out is if the Rams put the game out of reach and Robinson punches in a final garbage-time scoring drive.
More Picks and Analysis
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