2025 NCAA Final Four Power Rankings and Preview

April 3, 2025

The 2025 Final Four is set. How do the teams stack up against each other heading into their respective showdowns on Saturday? Ryan ranks each team and provides some insight on how they can win a title.

The stage is set. Duke, Houston, Auburn, and Florida - all No. 1 seeds - will compete at the Final Four this Saturday in San Antonio. Tip times and broadcast info are below.

Florida vs. Auburn - 6:09 pm ET on CBS

Duke vs. Houston - 8:49 pm ET on CBS

It's no secret that this tournament has mostly been a letdown. A bracket with zero upsets picked would be better than 97% of the brackets on ESPN's tournament challenge. We've only gotten a couple of great games, but even those have been overshadowed by an abundance of blowouts and a lack of upsets. I'm not one to complain about the latter because that means the best teams play each other in the later rounds, which usually leads to incredible basketball games. Unfortunately, we haven't even been able to experience that for the most part. That said, all hope is not lost. It's the first time since 2008- and second time in history- with a Final Four consisting of all No. 1 seeds. In fact, these teams are all historically great from a metrics standpoint.

Here are the 10 best KenPom teams ever (ratings date back to '96-97). Four of them are playing Saturday in San Antonio. Maybe the most loaded Final Four ever? This is downright ridiculous. A combined 135-16. pic.twitter.com/920CSBQCiY

— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 30, 2025

Even if this tournament hasn't been up to snuff, one thing is undoubtedly true. This is the best Final Four we've ever seen. As the great Jon Rothstein always says, "GRAB YOUR NITROGYLCERIN PILLS." Here we power rank the 2025 Men's Final Four teams and give some keys to cutting down the nets in Texas.

1. Duke Blue Devils (+100)

Record: 32-3 (19-1)

Accomplishments: ACC regular season and tournament champions

KenPom metrics: First overall (first in adjusted offense, fourth in adjusted defense)

Path to F4: No. 16 Mount St. Mary's, No. 9 Baylor, No. 4 Arizona, No. 2 Alabama

Is it a sign that this Duke team has identical KenPom rankings to the dominant UConn team of last year? Time will tell, but head coach Jon Scheyer's high-octane squad looks unbeatable, like Dan Hurley's proved to be a year ago.

While Cooper Flagg, the freshman phenom who’s a lock to win the Naismith and be the No. 1 pick in June, is a household name, the rest of Duke's roster is so talented and balanced that it almost seems unfair. They complement Flagg in a way that allows him the freedom to pick his spots and take over games even when the stat sheet may not tell that story.

Flagg is the most versatile weapon on both ends of the floor that college basketball has seen in quite some time. Like the team around him, he has virtually no weaknesses. While you can point to his perimeter game and decision-making as areas of improvement, it's picking nits at best, especially at his age of 18 years old. The Maine native can score at any level, easily guards positions 1-5, and has an impeccable feel for the game with top-level athleticism. The term "matchup nightmare" gets thrown around a lot, but it might not be more fitting for any player than Flagg.

Scheyer decided to move five-star guard Tyrese Proctor to a mostly off-ball role after two letdown seasons, and it's done wonders for his game and NBA viability. The Aussie looks much more comfortable operating as a secondary, sometimes tertiary, playmaker. His three-point percentage has significantly improved, as has his finishing at the rim.

This team operates without a true point guard, but given the versatility that Scheyer has at positions 1-4, they don't need one. They make life hell for teams defensively because of this. It's the primary reason that Duke is No. 1 in adjusted offense. Even within a single game, the Blue Devils will have either Flagg, Proctor, Kon Knueppel, or Sion James bring up the ball and initiate offense. Usually, this would come with a high turnover percentage, but not in the Blue Devils' case. Duke is top-20 in the country at taking care of the basketball, so pressuring them doesn't really work, no matter who is the acting PG.

The Blue Devils are top-12 in all three categories of scoring - 2pt (No. 6) and 3pt (No. 8) field goals, as well as free throw percentage (No. 12). It's nearly impossible to stop them on offense because of their versatility, but their ridiculous size also sets them apart. Every member of their starting five is 6-foot-6 or taller, and they run a legit nine-man rotation with the shortest reserve standing at 6-foot-5. They will have a significant size advantage against any other team in this Final Four.

It's hard not to see the UConn comparisons from a year ago. If this team simply plays its game and absorbs the blows when they come, a sixth championship for Duke will almost surely be the end result of this tournament. However, it's possible that this Houston team may just be their kryptonite, being the most physical and conditioned team in the country.

The most Similar past Kenpom team to each of teams in this year's Final Four. (Since 2001)

This Final Four field is STACKED. pic.twitter.com/cvXmwt6Db0

— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) April 2, 2025

2. Florida Gators (+300)

Record: 34-4 (14-4)

Accomplishments: SEC tournament champions, 2nd in SEC regular season

KenPom metrics: Third overall (second in adjusted offense, 10th in adjusted defense)

Path to F4: No. 16 Norfolk State, No. 8 UConn, No. 4 Maryland, No. 3 Texas Tech

Trying to rank these last three teams is as close to splitting hairs as you can get. While I give Florida the slight edge for this No. 2 spot based on their overall ceiling and depth, the margins are razor thin among the remaining three.

I don't completely buy into the narrative that winning the SEC tournament this season is actually harder than claiming a national title, but Florida might just mess around and do both. They are led by All-American point guard Walter Clayton Jr., the best in the country at creating offense out of thin air. His late-game heroics are the main reason why Florida has been able to advance this far. The former Iona Gael nailed two massive threes in the final minutes against both UConn and Texas Tech, highlighted by his Steph Curry-esque huck in the Elite Eight that put the Gators up for good.

Joining Clayton in the backcourt is Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin, one of the nation's most athletic wings. Martin attacks the rim at will but can also step out and stroke it from a distance (76 made threes on 35%). Will Richard and Denzel Aberdeen round out the deepest perimeter group left in the tournament.

This team isn't just built on elite and consistent guard play, though. They are the only team to challenge Duke's size, with Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Alex Condon all standing at 6-foot-9, 6-foot-10, and 6-foot-11, respectively. These three don't just have the body types but are relentless on the glass as well, helping Florida post a top-5 offensive rebounding rate this season. That is where they can hurt Auburn the most. It's commonly said that the most deflating possessions for a defensive are the offensive rebound to kick-out three, and no one does that better than the Gators.

These teams played only once in the regular season, a 90-81 win by Florida on Auburn's home court as 8.5-point underdogs. They won with a balanced attack, with five players in double figures, including 28 points from the bench and 13 made threes. If the Gators can somewhat limit Johni Broome on the offense end with their size and guard the perimeter well, they should be playing for their first national title since 2007.

Walter Clayton Jr. #MarchMadness supercut. #Gators pic.twitter.com/SAcckQaBym

— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) April 2, 2025

3. Houston Cougars (+450)

Record: 34-4 (19-1)

Accomplishments: Big 12 regular season and tournament champions

KenPom metrics: Second overall (10th in adjusted offense, first in adjusted defense)

Path to F4: No. 16 SIU Edwardsville, No. 8 Gonzaga, No. 4 Purdue, No. 2 Tennessee

Old Takes Exposed on X needs to call out some of the media pundits who were claiming Houston would struggle in the supposed "best conference in college basketball" when they made the jump to the Big 12. As Tim Robinson would say, "Wrong!"

Since joining that league, all the Cougars have done is completely dominate on an almost unprecedented scale. Back-to-back Big 12 regular season champions, with a tournament title this season, Houston has posted a 34-4 record in Big 12 play over the past two years. The next closest teams are Texas Tech and Iowa State, both tied with a 26-12 record. This team has also not lost in regulation since November 30. They have had one overtime loss since the start of December. One loss, four months. Let that sink in.

Houston has always hung their hat on the defensive end of the floor, and this year is no exception. They currently have the No. 1 adjusted defense and are unquestionably the most physically tough team in the country. Houston is actually undersized overall- their front line of J'Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler, and Ja'vier Francis all stand at 6-foot-8, but they make up for it in pure athleticism and relentless pursuit of the basketball.

Still, the size differential presents somewhat of an uphill battle for the Cougars against Duke, as centers Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II are both monstrous human beings with an average of seven feet and 250 lbs. between them. Both are freshmen, however, and may not be prepared for the rock fight they will be thrown into.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson definitely wants to turn the game into a cage match, but Houston is going to have to be careful from the get-go and not be overly aggressive. If there's a quick whistle at the outset, they will have to adjust and avoid being at the officials' mercy.

Defensive is a clear strength, but so is three-point shooting. The Cougars have struggled with this in years past, which has ultimately limited their ceiling, but they've completely flipped the script this year. Houston's elite backcourt trio of L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan all shoot better than 40% from three and have accounted for over 250 combined makes from downtown.

While Duke's perimeter defense is as strong as anybody's- All-American Mark Sears was held to 2-12 from the field last round- Houston has the creativity and perimeter shot-making that can propel them to the championship game.

It sounds cliché, but if the Cougars are going to win, they need to out-work Duke on the glass with effort and toughness. Houston will throw some haymakers at the Blue Devils early, and how they respond will be very telling of how this one will play out.

Houston's L.J. Cryer is looking to do what has never been done in the history of men's D-I college basketball 😳

After winning the NCAA championship in 2021 with Baylor, Cryer is now two games away from hoisting his second NCAA title 👀 pic.twitter.com/K1GcKVCOg1

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 1, 2025

4. Auburn Tigers (+500)

Record: 32-5 (15-3)

Accomplishments: SEC regular season champions

KenPom metrics: Fourth overall (Third in adjusted offense, Eighth in adjusted defense)

Path to F4: No. 16 Alabama State, No. 9 Creighton, No. 5 Michigan, No. 2 Michigan State

Holding the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll for almost the entire second half of the season, the Auburn Tigers looked immortal in the months of January and February. Winning the SEC regular season isn't as impressive as winning a national title, but this season, it's closer than you might think. Coming into the Big Dance, Auburn had lost three of four and still easily claimed the No. 1 overall seed. That's how dominant they were during the regular season in a historically great conference, and they are No. 4 on this list!

The Tigers have only had one real scare in the tournament thus far, as they found themselves down eight with 12 minutes to go against Michigan in the Sweet 16. After this point, Auburn went on a 20-3 run, with guards Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford pouring in 16 of the 20 points in a five-minute stretch. That is what this team is capable of, perhaps more than any other team in the field besides, maybe, Florida. Offensive explosions. Shots! Explosives! Pew Pew!

At one point in the season, they had reached KenPom's highest-rated offense since the database was formed in 1997. That number has come down since, but this team remains an offensive juggernaut, and it starts with their All-American power forward, Johni Broome.

Broome, like Flagg, is exceptional at many things on both ends of the floor. He provides top-end rim protection while also showcasing adept touch around the basket that, at 6-foot-10, 240 lbs, makes him almost impossible to stop within five feet. He's not the best perimeter shooter, but he can still stroke it if you leave him open, with about one make per game on the season.

Broome isn't the handler that Flagg is, but he's much more important to his team's offense. He plays a quasi-point-forward from the high-post, dishing out a team-high 2.9 assists, even with every other defensive player half-keyed in on him at all times.

Auburn's recipe for success is run the offense through Broome, take care of the basketball, protect the rim, and limit Florida's threes. They struggled mightily defending the arc in their first matchup as Florida hit 13 from a distance. The Tigers are typically keyed in on that aspect of the game, boasting an SEC-leading 29.6% three-point defense, thanks largely to the defensive prowess of Jones and their ability to switch on perimeter ball screens.

It's also worth noting that Broome had an awkward fall in last Sunday's Elite Eight game against Michigan State. It looked terrible initially, and Broome went to the locker room pretty quickly but ultimately returned and returned to his usual dominant ways. All signs point to him being fine for the Final Four, but if he's less than 100% or reaggravates that injury, Auburn could be in trouble. They cannot beat Florida without a healthy Broome. With him at full strength, they have a great shot at cutting down the nets in San Antonio.

- 3 buckets on the first 3 possessions
- 15 & 10 before halftime
- 20 points with 15 minutes to play
- a Hollywood return from an injury
- the first Elite Eight performance of its kind since Hakeem Olajuwon

here's the Film Room on Johni Broome vs. MSU, because it was pure cinema pic.twitter.com/g1Vc89Oigl

— Justin Ferguson (@JFergusonAU) April 1, 2025

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