Week 13 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Hello and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings in the spotlight and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I'm currently ninth overall out of 130 rankers on FantasyPros after finishing ninth for the 2017 season, so I'd like to think I've earned some street cred here. #Consistency.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Week 13 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Those of you seeking out a boost at QB should target Mitch Trubisky (My Rank: 12, ECR: 19) if he’s active and Dak Prescott (13 vs. 16). Simply put, I'm a sucker for mobile QBs. That rushing floor is so juicy, and while Dak doesn't run as much as Trubs has, Prescott has tallied five rushing TDs in his last six contests. Mm-mm good! And it can't be overstated how valuable Amari Cooper is to Dak and the Cowboys, as having a receiver that can turn your pass into a long TD does quite a bit for one's ceiling. Digging deeper, Case Keenum (19 vs. 22) and Josh Allen (22 vs. 27) are decent streamers. Keenum gets the hapless Bengals defense and Allen’s rushing potential is worthy of serious 2QB consideration.

Those on the downswing are Philip Rivers (15 vs. 12) and Carson Wentz (18 vs. 14). Rivers is almost sure to be without stud RB Melvin Gordon and will need to do the heavy lifting Sunday night in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense is legitimate, with Joe Haden especially looking good since joining them, and a road date against them without a big rushing threat is a bad look. At least it isn't a 1PM start?

Then there’s Wentz, who has plenty of help around him but simply looks lost on the field. We've discussed before how Philly’s offensive coordinator is openly lamenting the Golden Tate trade, yet Tate continues to lead the team in targets. Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole with such frequency explains much of Wentz and the Eagles’ struggles. If I knew they would go back to a healthy diet of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Plus, as we'll get to in a moment, their best offensive weapon is a big favorite of mine to steal work.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	2	1
2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	1	-1
3	Jared Goff	LAR	QB	3	0
4	Jameis Winston	TB	QB	5	1
5	Drew Brees	NO	QB	4	-1
6	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	6	0
7	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	7	0
8	Andrew Luck	IND	QB	8	0
9	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	9	0
10	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	11	1
11	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	10	-1
12	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	12	0
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	16	3
14	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	13	-1
15	Tom Brady	NE	QB	14	-1
16	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	17	1
17	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	15	-2
18	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB	18	0
19	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB	19	0
20	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	21	1
21	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	24	3
22	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	20	-2
23	Colt McCoy	WAS	QB	23	0
24	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	22	-2
25	Jeff Driskel	CIN	QB	28	3
26	Chase Daniel	CHI	QB	25	-1
27	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	QB	26	-1
28	Eli Manning	NYG	QB	27	-1
29	Cody Kessler	JAC	QB	29	0
30	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB	30	0
31	Nick Mullens	SF	QB	31	0
32	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB	33	1
33	Taysom Hill	NO	QB	34	1

 

Week 13 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Josh Adams (17 vs. 20) fought through a first-half injury to still make good on his buzz against a hapless Giants run defense that is worthy of its own hour-long comedy special. Despite missing time, Adams led the Eagles with 40 snaps (62%) compared to 55% in Week 11 and 31% in Week 10. He put up 84 yards and a tuddy on the scoreboard while Wendell Smallwood played just one snap. Corey Clement looked good in relief of Adams, but at least this RB stable is down to two with Adams being the clear 1A to deploy.

Hey, remember the Giants comedy tour? Well, the Bears are next guests with front-row seats to the show. Even though Jordan Howard (24 vs. 32) is on his last strike in his final at-bat in 2018, he’s about to get a Giant meatball down the middle. It may feel like he’s no longer in the gameplan, but he’s still topped 60% of their snaps in each of the last two games. If Trubisky plays then I’m plugging Howard in.

Where there’s light, there’s also darkness. I’m also three-to-four spots lower on Dion Lewis, Adrian Peterson and James White. Lewis only outsnapped Derrick Henry 29-to-27 in Week 12 and has 89 rush yards on 37 carries and a 10-52-0 receiving line in the last three weeks. Marcus Mariota is finally elevating Corey Davis and we're also seeing Jonnu Smith take a couple steps forward, but Tennessee's run game is truly maddening right now. You hand it off to the backup TE on a dive play on fourth down? Why?

Peterson is faltering behind a patchwork Washington offensive line as Father Time catches up with him in the later weeks of the season, but he also failed to log a red-zone opportunity for the first time last week (Kapri Bibbs saw all three). White may be wearing down under heavier usage, but this is largely about Rex Burkhead coming back. Burkhead is versatile but plays better as a passing-down back rather than between-the-tackles banger, so I believe Sony Michel is rather safe and White could be scaled back.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Todd Gurley	LAR	RB	1	0
2	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	2	0
3	Spencer Ware	KC	RB	21	18
4	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	4	0
5	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	3	-2
6	James Conner	PIT	RB	7	1
7	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	6	-1
8	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	5	-3
9	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	9	0
10	David Johnson	ARI	RB	8	-2
11	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	11	0
12	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	10	-2
13	Gus Edwards	BAL	RB	16	3
14	Lamar Miller	HOU	RB	13	-1
15	Matt Breida	SF	RB	12	-3
16	Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	17	1
17	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	15	-2
18	Josh Adams	PHI	RB	18	0
19	Sony Michel	NE	RB	19	0
20	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	14	-6
21	Mark Ingram	NO	RB	20	-1
22	LeSean McCoy	BUF	RB	23	1
23	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	22	-1
24	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	31	7
25	Carlos Hyde	JAC	RB	29	4
26	Dion Lewis	TEN	RB	24	-2
27	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	26	-1
28	Peyton Barber	TB	RB	32	4
29	Doug Martin	OAK	RB	33	4
30	Kenyan Drake	MIA	RB	30	0
31	James White	NE	RB	25	-6
32	Tevin Coleman	ATL	RB	27	-5
33	Frank Gore	MIA	RB	35	2
34	Royce Freeman	DEN	RB	40	6
35	LeGarrette Blount	DET	RB	36	1
36	Theo Riddick	DET	RB	38	2
37	T.J. Yeldon	JAC	RB	34	-3
38	Duke Johnson	CLE	RB	41	3
39	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	37	-2
40	Justin Jackson	LAC	RB	45	5
41	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	28	-13
42	Nyheim Hines	IND	RB	44	2
43	Elijah McGuire	NYJ	RB	42	-1
44	Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	RB	43	-1
45	Chris Thompson	WAS	RB	53	8
46	Jalen Richard	OAK	RB	39	-7
47	Latavius Murray	MIN	RB	46	-1
48	Corey Clement	PHI	RB	49	1
49	Mike Davis	SEA	RB	50	1
50	Ito Smith	ATL	RB	47	-3
51	Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	52	1
52	Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	48	-4
53	Rex Burkhead	NE	RB	58	5
54	Damien Williams	KC	RB	74	20
55	Kenneth Dixon	BAL	RB	87	32
56	Malcolm Brown	LAR	RB	61	5
57	Chris Ivory	BUF	RB	59	2
58	Ty Montgomery	BAL	RB	51	-7
59	Jordan Wilkins	IND	RB	56	-3
60	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	RB	57	-3
61	Jamaal Williams	GB	RB	55	-6
62	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	RB	62	0
63	Javorius Allen	BAL	RB	64	1
64	Tommy Bohanon	JAC	RB	91	27
65	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	54	-11
66	Chase Edmonds	ARI	RB	68	2
67	Kapri Bibbs	WAS	RB	60	-7
68	Alfred Morris	SF	RB	88	20
69	Zach Line	NO	RB	92	23
70	James Develin	NE	RB	89	19
71	Devontae Booker	DEN	RB	66	-5
72	Rod Smith	DAL	RB	70	-2
73	Deandre Washington	OAK	RB	65	-8
74	Zach Zenner	DET	RB	69	-5
75	Wayne Gallman	NYG	RB	67	-8
76	Taquan Mizzell	CHI	RB	73	-3
77	Anthony Sherman	KC	RB	81	4
78	Kalen Ballage	MIA	RB	77	-1
79	Ameer Abdullah	MIN	RB	83	4
80	Marcus Murphy	BUF	RB	75	-5
81	Jaylen Samuels	PIT	RB	72	-9
82	Wendell Smallwood	PHI	RB	63	-19
83	Trenton Cannon	NYJ	RB	76	-7
84	Matthew Dayes	SF	RB	85	1
85	Cameron Artis-Payne	CAR	RB	79	-6
86	Andy Janovich	DEN	RB	90	4
87	Roosevelt Nix	PIT	RB	101	14
88	Mark Walton	CIN	RB	95	7
89	Alex Armah	CAR	RB	84	-5
90	CJ Ham	MIN	RB	86	-4
91	Jeffery Wilson	SF	RB	71	-20
92	Ronald Jones II	TB	RB	78	-14
93	Darren Sproles	PHI	RB	97	4
94	Byron Marshall	WAS	RB	104	10
95	Darrel Williams	KC	RB	103	8

 

Week 13 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’m surprised to see Robert Woods (8 vs. 12) so low, but I suppose he vies with Adam Thielen for most underrated star WR. I should also note my love for Adam Humphries (31 vs. 38). Deeper down, I also need to mention Marcell Ateman (61 vs. 76), Trey Quinn (63 vs. 82) and Equanimeous St. Brown (67 vs. 86).

Woods is feasting out of the Rams’ slot and saw a team-high five red-zone opportunities in Week 11’s shootout with the Chiefs. His 90 targets lead one of the most potent teams in the NFL, so you’ve got a trusted set of hands running high-percentage routes and garnering lots of RZ targets. Check, please!

Then there’s Humphries, who has shown chemistry with Jameis Winston over the years and also has 40 targets in his last six games. Much of those were Ryan Fitzpatrick targets, but my optimism lies in the new Winston that focused on short-to-intermediate passes rather than going for the home-run ball. With DeSean Jackson falling out of favor and never looking right with Winston at QB, I’ll take Humphries as a square WR3 in standard and PPR alike.

In Raiderland, Marcell Ateman tallied a whopping 10 targets in Week 12, but caught only three for 16 yards. The man is six-foot-five and may surprise us if Derek Carr can throw the ball a bit more true as Oakland sees what it has in Ateman rather than grind the low ceilings of Jordy Nelson and Seth Roberts.

And how about Quinn, who is worthy of starting simply due to his doing “The Scarn” as a TD celebration on Thanksgiving, but also caught five-of-six Colt McCoy targets as Washington scrambles for a spark. He’ll fall by the wayside if Jamison Crowder returns over the middle, but for now Quinn is a quiet PPR play. And while the hype grows for Jake Kumerow in Green Bay, I think MVS is ready to rebound against Arizona’s poor slot DBs (whether Budda Baker plays or Leonard Johnson attempts to is another thing).

On the other side lies pessimism for Jarvis Landry (38 vs. 28), David Moore (44 vs. 36) and the aforementioned Golden Tate (47 vs. 37). New Browns OC Freddie Kitchens isn’t featuring Landry and is seeing fantastic results, with the more valuable downfield targets going to David Njoku, Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins. And once Cleveland’s in the red zone then it’s all about the RBs. Over their past three games, Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson have combined for 18 RZ opps. All WRs have combined for three (Landry has one) while the TEs have two. So I’ll be passing on Landry, just as Cleveland is.

The past five weeks have seen Seattle pass just 48% of the time, standing as one of three teams under 50%. Moore is a boss, but is a better dynasty asset than redraft flex play and his average of six targets per game in that five-week window makes him mighty TD-dependent. As such, I can’t make him a low-end WR3 just yet. And with Tate, I just have no belief in Philadelphia to scheme for him. The WR screens are halfhearted so his leading in targets feels like empty calories.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	10	3
2	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	8	0
3	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	9	-2
4	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	14	2
5	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	13	0
6	Davante Adams	GB	WR	16	2
7	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	17	2
8	Robert Woods	LAR	WR	25	3
9	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	WR	19	-4
10	Brandin Cooks	LAR	WR	22	-2
11	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	33	4
12	Stefon Diggs	MIN	WR	30	0
13	A.J. Green	CIN	WR	80	47
14	Mike Evans	TB	WR	24	-13
15	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	29	-9
16	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	37	-4
17	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	35	-7
18	Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	38	-5
19	Julian Edelman	NE	WR	50	4
20	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	42	-6
21	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	57	5
22	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	49	-4
23	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	53	-3
24	Josh Gordon	NE	WR	56	-1
25	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	63	4
26	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	WR	61	0
27	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	66	4
28	Doug Baldwin	SEA	WR	67	3
29	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	71	6
30	Adam Humphries	TB	WR	76	10
31	Josh Reynolds	LAR	WR	72	5
32	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	75	7
33	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	78	9
34	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	70	0
35	Demaryius Thomas	HOU	WR	81	10
36	Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	69	-4
37	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	79	5
38	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	98	23
39	Michael Crabtree	BAL	WR	109	33
40	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	90	8
41	Curtis Samuel	CAR	WR	95	10
42	David Moore	SEA	WR	82	-4
43	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	100	13
44	Chris Conley	KC	WR	134	45
45	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	WR	104	14
46	Golden Tate	PHI	WR	87	-6
47	Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	89	-7
48	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	WR	92	-6
49	Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	96	-5
50	Dante Pettis	SF	WR	138	36
51	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	121	18
52	Antonio Callaway	CLE	WR	116	11
53	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	WR	102	-4
54	John Ross	CIN	WR	123	12
55	John Brown	BAL	WR	112	-3
56	Dede Westbrook	JAC	WR	99	-17
57	Donte Moncrief	JAC	WR	108	-9
58	Josh Doctson	WAS	WR	101	-17
59	Willie Snead	BAL	WR	130	11
60	Robby Anderson	NYJ	WR	118	-3
61	Marcell Ateman	OAK	WR	137	15
62	Cole Beasley	DAL	WR	135	10
63	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	WR	124	-2
64	Trey Quinn	WAS	WR	144	17
65	Keke Coutee	HOU	WR	115	-14
66	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	139	9
67	Devante Parker	MIA	WR	113	-19
68	Kenny Stills	MIA	WR	125	-8
69	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	WR	165	31
70	Danny Amendola	MIA	WR	176	39
71	Tyrell Williams	LAC	WR	114	-25
72	Marquise Goodwin	SF	WR	171	29

 

Week 13 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I know more Oakland hurts, but Jared Cook (6 vs. 9) remains the best bet for a touchdown through the air. He caught one last week and while I love Ateman seeing 10 targets, Cook is still their most athletic receiving option in a game where they're 15-point underdogs. Fantasy players also need to quickly catch up with Matt LaCosse (15 vs. 20), the six-foot-six tight end ready to enter Denver’s starting lineup with Jeff Heuerman joining Jake Butt on the IR. LaCosse caught his first career TD in Week 12 and now faces a Bengals defense that gives up fantasy points like a balloon on Free Balloon Day. Cincinnati’s cover safety, Shawn Williams, has an ugly 54.1 PFF grade and I don’t expect that to improve in Week 13.

Those I’m down on are Kyle Rudolph (17 vs. 14), C.J. Uzomah (21 vs. 18) and Benjamin Watson (29 vs. 21). I was surprised to see Rudolph catch seven balls for 63 yards in Week 12 since he hadn’t topped 60 yards since Week 2, but he’s now gone eight games without a TD and averages roughly five targets a game. You want me to trust middling targets and no red-zone production? I know the Patriots have been generous to opposing TEs in 2018, but Eric Ebron (9-105-2) and Trey Burton (9-126-1) are a bit sprier than Mr. Rudolph.

Uzomah will benefit if A.J. Green returns to the lineup and helps drag Jeff Driskel and company to paydirt, but we also have to account for the Hue Jackson “bonus” and that Uzomah has totaled 103 yards over his last four games despite seeing 26 targets, including a season-high 13 in Week 12 (6-39-0). Plus, if Green returns then we have to downgrade Uzomah’s target share. Uzomah is TD-dependent with a backup QB on a team that Vegas has given just 19.5 implied points at home (+5, 44 O/U). Oy vey.

And finally, Watson’s last five games have seen him command just eight targets. Josh Hill has just as many in that span and Dan Arnold has 12, which is a red alert in my eyes. The trend can be seen in Watson’s snap counts, where he’s sat at 80% in Weeks 1 and 2, only to fall to ~50% in Weeks 3-6 and he’s been fighting to stay above 30% ever since. Arnold has some intrigue, but Watson is outside the circle of trust due to this.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	1	0
2	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	2	0
3	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	3	0
4	Eric Ebron	IND	TE	5	1
5	George Kittle	SF	TE	4	-1
6	Jared Cook	OAK	TE	8	2
7	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	6	-1
8	Cameron Brate	TB	TE	7	-1
9	David Njoku	CLE	TE	9	0
10	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	10	0
11	Trey Burton	CHI	TE	11	0
12	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	13	1
13	Austin Hooper	ATL	TE	12	-1
14	Chris Herndon IV	NYJ	TE	15	1
15	Matt LaCosse	DEN	TE	19	4
16	Gerald Everett	LAR	TE	20	4
17	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	14	-3
18	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	16	-2
19	Jimmy Graham	GB	TE	18	-1
20	C.J. Uzomah	CIN	TE	17	-3
21	Nick Vannett	SEA	TE	21	0
22	Antonio Gates	LAC	TE	23	1
23	Jesse James	PIT	TE	25	2
24	Rhett Ellison	NYG	TE	32	8
25	Hayden Hurst	BAL	TE	30	5
26	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	28	2
27	Michael Roberts	DET	TE	37	10
28	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	22	-6
29	Vernon Davis	WAS	TE	27	-2
30	Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	24	-6
31	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	29	-2
32	Ricky Seals-Jones	ARI	TE	26	-6
33	Ed Dickson	SEA	TE	33	0
34	Lance Kendricks	GB	TE	34	0
35	James O'Shaughnessy	JAC	TE	31	-4
36	Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	36	0
37	Jordan Thomas	HOU	TE	40	3
38	Virgil Green	LAC	TE	43	5
39	Jordan Akins	HOU	TE	48	9
40	Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	39	-1
41	Luke Stocker	TEN	TE	49	8
42	Ryan Griffin	HOU	TE	35	-7
43	Josh Hill	NO	TE	42	-1
44	Garrett Celek	SF	TE	72	28
45	Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	46	1
46	Jason Croom	BUF	TE	41	-5
47	Jermaine Gresham	ARI	TE	50	3
48	Luke Willson	DET	TE	44	-4
49	Nick Boyle	BAL	TE	45	-4
50	Rico Gathers	DAL	TE	54	4
51	Demetrius Harris	KC	TE	47	-4
52	Logan Thomas	BUF	TE	51	-1
53	Levine Toilolo	DET	TE	52	-1
54	Xavier Grimble	PIT	TE	59	5
55	Maxx Williams	BAL	TE	76	21
56	Scott Simonson	NYG	TE	71	15
57	Nick O'Leary	MIA	TE	53	-4
58	Ben Koyack	JAC	TE	73	15
59	Antony Auclair	TB	TE	57	-2
60	Blake Bell	JAC	TE	55	-5
61	Chris Manhertz	CAR	TE	85	24
62	A.J. Derby	MIA	TE	64	2
63	Seth DeValve	CLE	TE	63	0
64	Jeremy Sprinkle	WAS	TE	84	20
65	Jacob Hollister	NE	TE	81	16
66	Ian Thomas	CAR	TE	88	22

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