Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Divisional Playoff NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the Saturday games of the Divisional round matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

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Seahawks @ Falcons - Saturday 1/14 @ 4:35 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) - Loving a QB against the Seahawks? Matty Ice lit up this same defense for 335 yards and three scores in Week 6. That game was played in Seattle, with Earl Thomas in the lineup. The Seahawks won't be a pushover by any means, but Ryan shouldn't be faded just because of their reputation. They showed signs of slippage late in the season, allowing 38 points to Green Bay, 34 to Arizona and 23 to San Francisco before shutting down the Lions in last week's Wild Card game. The Falcons don't do defensive battles, so expect this matchup to be high-scoring again. Ryan should be behind only Aaron Rodgers in QB rankings this weekend.

Julio Jones (WR, ATL) - Jones has already shown he is matchup-proof, but has also been inconsistent throughout the season. Seattle's vaunted secondary may scare away Jones owners, but they actually slipped to 15th in fantasy points allowed to WR by season's end. Jones showed no fear against Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead earlier this season, going for 139 yards and a touchdown. If the running game is ineffective, which is a distinct possibility, Jones could see a ton of targets. He should be kept in all lineups as usual.

Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - The Falcons are among the worst at stopping the tight end, allowing 998 yards and eight TD on the season. Graham has been fairly successful against the Falcons in his career, mostly in his time with the Saints. In 11 games playing the Falcons, Graham has scored eight times with an average game of five catches for 66 yards. He caught six for 89 in Week 6, so there's good reason to make Graham one of the top tight end plays of the week. In a very thin position, only Travis Kelce could be valued higher than Graham for the Divisional Round.

Matchups We Hate

Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - At first glance, a matchup against the second-worst pass defense against quarterbacks seems like money in the bank for Wilson owners. Wilson's numbers have simply been pedestrian away from home this season, with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in eight games. Truth be told, he's been downright unplayable on the road, save for two games (Week 4 vs the Jets and shockingly Week 10 vs the Patriots). He still isn't making plays with his feet, so it will take a big passing day for Wilson to pay off. Atlanta's secondary has stepped up in the absence of Desmond Trufant and aren't quite as bad as people think. Wilson has shown the potential for explosive games at unexpected times, but he appears to be more of a trap play this week. In the words of Planet Patrol, "Play at your own risk."

Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL) - Coleman was completely shut down the by 'Hawks in Week 6, totaling 17 yards. That shouldn't be surprising, since they are one of the best defenses against RB catching the ball out of the backfield. They haven't allowed a single receiving touchdown to a running back this season and allowed the fourth-fewest receptions. Even if this game becomes a shootout, there's sufficient reason to think Coleman won't be too involved.

Notable Players

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) - Like running mate Coleman, Freeman was also held in check by the Seahawks earlier this year. He carried the ball 12 times for 40 yards while adding 10 receiving yards. Freeman is always a threat to score, however, especially at home where 11 of his 13 touchdowns have come. His ceiling is limited in this game - the Seahawks haven't allowed a team to rush for 100 yards against them since Week 12 and have only allowed three players to run for as many as 90 yards all season (Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower, David Johnson). Freeman is best used as a cash game option this week.

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA) - Raise your hand if you expected Rawls to set a franchise record for playoff rushing yards last week. His performance against the Lions seemingly came out of nowhere as he gashed their defense repeatedly. Rawls did show the ability to put up huge games last season, running for 169 in Cincinnati and 209 against San Francisco, but it remains to be seen whether he can do it in consecutive weeks, much less in the Divisional playoffs. Atlanta allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RB this year, but that is in large part a result of game flow, as their offense usually got out to big leads. The Falcons did allow 13 rushing TD, which places them in the bottom 10 defensively. Rawls has a good chance to find the end zone, but may be hard-pressed to break 100 yards. He projects to be the RB5 in fantasy scoring this weekend.

 

Texans @ Patriots - Saturday 1/14 @ 8:15 PM EST

Matchups We Love

LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE) - It seems Blount is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL (look it up, Millenials). He is the lead runner for the top seeded team and led the league with 18 rushing scores, yet he's often valued at half the price of other RB1 options in daily leagues. The problem is his complete lack of involvement in the passing game and relative dependence on finding the end zone. When you average a touchdown per game, however, it's hard to pass him up. Houston was simply average against the run this year and did allow two scores to Blount in Week 3, so Blount should be a good bargain once again.

Matchups We Hate

Brock Osweiler (QB, HOU) - Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Many people expected Osweiler to go down in flames in his first playoff start last weekend (including yours truly). While completing 14 passes for 168 yards and one TD is far from spectacular, he made for a decent fantasy play thanks to a rushing score. This time he won't be facing a rookie QB on the other side, nor can the Patriots defense be compared to Oakland's. New England finished 14-2 in large part thanks to a defense that allowed the fewest points in the league, including 21 passing TD in 16 games. Osweiler will need to scramble or sneak for another TD on the ground to scrap together any fantasy value in this matchup. Even so, last week's point total would seem to be his absolute ceiling this week. Avoid again.

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - We know Miller will get a huge workload once again, as the Texans try to keep the ball out of Brady's hands and alleviate pressure on Osweiler. It may result in another sub-3.00 Y/A game, just like last week. Including the Wild Card game against Oakland, where he ran the ball 31 times but produced just 73 yards, Miller has been struggling to make big gains late in the season. In the last five games, Miller is averaging exactly three yards per carry, only breaking 100 yards from scrimmage once (Week 14 against the Colts). On the plus side, he's scored a touchdown in three straight. That will be a tough streak to continue, as the Pats only gave up four rushing touchdowns all year. Expect eight man, maybe more, in the box throughout the first half of this game as the Patriots aim to take Miller out of the gameplan.

Malcolm Mitchell (WR, NE) - The rookie from Georgia became a hot commodity down the stretch, scoring four touchdowns between Weeks 11-14. He then combined for four catches and 43 yards with no scores the next two weeks before sitting out Week 17. It may be tempting to think that the Patriots will incorporate him into the gameplan this week, but it may not matter. Mitchell will be matched up mostly with A.J. Bouye, who continues to play shutdown corner. Expect Brady to lean on his veterans this game and look away from Mitchell.

Notable Players

Tom Brady (QB, NE) - Brady could very well be the MVP this year with only 12 games played. He has thrown only two interceptions and finished with a league-leading 83.1 QBR. His outstanding TD/INT rate actually dips to 2/1 when you look at career playoff stats (56/28 in 31 games). This year's Brady looks as sharp as ever, but Houston's strength is its pass defense. The Texans haven't allowed a 300-yard passer all year and have held three of the last four teams under 150 passing yards. A reasonable projection for Brady is 260 yards and two TD.

Dion Lewis (RB, NE) - It will be interesting to see how heavily Lewis is used in this game. He wasn't around the first time these teams met, but has rejoined the RB rotation. His snap count has held steady at 28, 27 and 27 the last three weeks of the regular season. It will be hard for him to carve out a big role, especially with the way Blount gashed these Texans in the first matchup. He will need to make a big play out of the backfield in order to produce a high point total. The Texans are in the top 10 defensively in regard to limiting catches and touchdowns by running backs, but have allowed 653 receiving yards to RB, which is in the bottom half of the league. He's risk/reward this weekend, making him more appealing in tournament games than regular formats.

Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!