NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 5)

October 8, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 5 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Hey there, NFL bettors! Don't look now, but we are heating up as the props from this article went 4-2 last week. Let's see if we can run it back with some more winning picks in Week 5, shall we?

If you're new here, I'd like to introduce you to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 5 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Omarion Hampton OVER 37.5 rushing yards (52%)

As someone who drafted Hampton in a few leagues, I know firsthand how disappointing of a start it's been for him and this Charger rushing attack. But what is this disrespectful number being dangled in front of us? 38 yards?

Sure, Keaton Mitchell has worked his way into the mix for touches, but Hampton has gone over this total in all four games this season, and he did it last week on only 9 carries. The Chargers offense has too much talent to be this bad all season, and they get a meeting with a Denver team this week that ranks 23rd in DVOA rush defense.

L.A. is not just going to abandon the run. I look for them to pound the football against Denver in an attempt to move the chains and limit the number of times that Justin Herbert has to drop back against a solid Denver pass rush. This is a low bar, and I think Hampton goes over quite easily. He's simply too good and is still the RB1 in this offense.

Bijan Robinson OVER 88.5 rushing yards (51%)

I am not someone to attack props that are this high, but Robinson has been otherworldly the last two weeks, rushing for 194 yards against the Packers and another 145 (on only 19 carries) against the Saints. He could have easily had 200+ against the Saints if that game was more competitive, as his backup, Brian Robinson Jr., added 14-62 and three touchdowns.

BIJAN GETS THINGS STARTED EARLY

@ATLvsNO on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/2WkWScWreu

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2026

Getting Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback has been huge for this offense. Teams now have to honor the pass, which they weren't doing with Cooper Rush under center. While Baltimore is a decent defense, they have given up big rushing totals to stud backs this year as Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams both ran for 98 yards against them.

This game projects to be a very competitive one, and I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson handled 25+ carries for Atlanta and continued his huge run with another 100+ on the ground.

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NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Nico Collins OVER 5.5 receptions (48%)

Nico was back in top form last week, hauling in seven of his eight targets for 118 yards and two scores. He had a 31% target share last week and is the clear top option in this passing game.

Nico Collins came back from injury and immediately reminded everyone what Houston was missing.

6 REC, 110 REC YDS, 18.3 AVG, 2 TD vs Cowboys https://t.co/KOTTFcvoLL

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) October 4, 2026

Houston's run game has been a disaster, with David Montgomery and Woody Marks both struggling to get much going behind an offensive line that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards. So look fo Houston to be pass-heavy again this week against Tennessee, a team that has allowed DeVonta Smith to go 10-117 and Zay Flowers to go 8-118 against them already this season.

Isaiah Likely OVER 4.5 receptions (49%)

I know, I love tight end props; I have a problem. Well, if we are hitting them at a high rate, is it really a problem?

Likely had one bad week so far with only two catches against Tennessee in Week 3. Otherwise, he's had five catches or more in his other three games. He's coming off a seven-catch performance against Arizona (on 12 targets!) and gets another good matchup here against the Commanders, who have allowed opposing starting tight ends to average 4.5 catches and 57.5 yards this season.

Remember, Likely is a tight end in name only. He lines up in the slot quite often and functions more as the WR2 in this offense. With Washington shutting down the run quite well this year, I expect a lot of passing volume for Jameis Winston and his receivers in this one.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (37%)

I am well aware that I had two tight ends in this section last week, but I like the matchups for these guys, so I'm doing it again!

LaPorta's 28% red zone target rate trails only Amon-Ra St. Brown on the team, and I expect the Lions to be throwing it a lot again this week against the Cardinals in what could be an even bigger shootout than what we saw between Buffalo and Detroit back in Week 2.

Detroit has a 59% red zone passing rate; they're not afraid to sling it down there. And with former Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing calling the plays for the Lions, don't be surprised if he targets his big tight end often in the end zone, something he did with Trey McBride a lot last season.

Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (44%)

Speaking of McBride, how can we not like him for a touchdown this week against this horrific Lions defense? McBride is sporting a 32% red zone target rate, tied with Michael Wilson for the team lead, and the Lions are allowing the most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. This should probably be like 50% odds or higher, so I am smashing the button on what I feel is a value here.

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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