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Andy's players to avoid in the first four rounds of 2026 fantasy football leagues. His early-round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and more.
Navigating early-round landmines can put you in a great position to claim your fantasy championship. While it may not be easy to spot a bust, especially when looking at the league's top players, analyzing their career statistics and current situation can help point managers in the right direction.
In this piece, we will take a look at five players within the top 40 of current Yahoo ADP that I will be avoiding in all of my drafts. While these players could provide value if their ADP were to drop, they are currently quite overpriced given their expected production.
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Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Yahoo ADP - 12.8
In terms of first-round players, there are only two that I am actively avoiding in drafts. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (10.4 ADP) and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (12.8 ADP).
Entering the 2025 season, Jefferson seemed to be one of the few "safe" picks in fantasy football. Over his first five seasons in the NFL, the former first-round pick averaged a net of 1,486.4 yards per game and found the back of the end zone eight times per season on average. In 2024, Jefferson totaled double-digit scores for just the second time in his career and eclipsed the 1,500-yard mark.
However, after looking to be "QB-proof," Jefferson saw his production take a massive step back in 2025. Catching passes from J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz, Jefferson would bring in just 84 passes for 1,048 yards and two scores, with his yards and touchdowns marking career lows. He would only eclipse the 20.0 PPR point mark in one single game and fell below the double-digit mark in six of them.
Despite playing in all 17 games, Jefferson finished as the WR21 in PPR points and the WR30 in terms of FPTS/G. Needless to say, those who selected Jefferson with a first-round pick were very disappointed.
Despite this, the former LSU superstar is once again going off the board in the back half of the first round. While his ADP has begun to decline, he remains a clear option at his current price.
The Vikings held a QB competition in training camp, which eventually went to Kyler Murray, beating out incumbent McCarthy. Murray saw his 2025 season cut short in Week 5 when he suffered an Achilles tear. In these five games, Murray was the QB17, averaging just 192.4 yards per game with six touchdowns.
Even in 2024 (when he played in all 17 games), Murray threw just 21 passing scores (13th most) and totaled the 11th-most passing yards in the sport. If Murray were to face any growing pains in his recovery, Jefferson would face similar troubles en route to a bounce-back.
Additionally, any injury to Murray would be detrimental to Jefferson's value, as they would turn back to the struggling McCarthy. While he has the upside, there is far too much risk in his profile to warrant a late first-round selection.
Instead, managers should take a running back in this spot, targeting Omarion Hampton or Chase Brown.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Yahoo ADP - 22.4
Going nearly 10 picks later is Nico Collins. While Collins was already on my avoids list, the recent trade that brings Kayshon Boutte to this offense makes him an even greater avoid at his current price.
Collins is a very talented receiver, but several factors are working against him. First, Collins has yet to play in a full 17-game season in his career and has missed at least two games in each of his last three seasons (missed five back-to-back in 2024).
Secondly, his offensive situation is not ideal given his potential to outperform his current draft cost.
In 2025, Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. While he continued to show high-end upside down the field (18 receptions for 20+ yards), he would finish as the WR10 in terms of FPTS/G.
IT’S A NICO COLLINS TOUCHDOWN 🔥
TBvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/U6Y0P4qSic— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2025
However, he is going off the board as the WR8 in current Yahoo ADP, making his price even more questionable given his production last season.
The Texans prefer to run the ball and let their defense drive games. Last season, they ran the ball the 13th-most times in football despite subpar production in the backfield, with Woody Marks leading the way. However, this problem was addressed this offseason by adding veteran David Montgomery to the roster.
While Montgomery is at the tail end of his career, he provides a great complement to Marks and will help them win games in the trenches.
If their defense remains just as elite as it was last season, the Texans will lean on their two-headed monster to relieve some pressure off the inconsistent C.J. Stroud. If this occurs, Collins' target share could drop even further.
With Boutte now potentially taking downfield targets, Collins is a major landmine at price. Instead, savvy drafters should pivot to George Pickens, who has an identical ADP and will play for one of the game's top offensive units.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP - 25.9
Those who selected Trey McBride in 2025 were given a massive advantage at one of the toughest positions to fill in fantasy. In 2025, McBride broke records, catching 126 passes for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Even though he is not priced at this level of production, he should be cautiously selected in drafts going right around the 2-3 turn,
In 2025, nearly everything went right for the young tight end to turn in this level of fantasy production. The Arizona Cardinals allowed the fourth-most total points per game, which put them in favorable situations for their passing attack as they were often playing "catch-up."
However, the most important factor in this was that the Cardinals had one of the worst rushing attacks in the sport. With James Conner and Trey Benson both injured, a mix of Emari Demercado and Bam Knight would end the season, running for just 93.1 yards per game, the second-lowest in the sport.
As a result, the offense was nearly entirely focused on McBride, Michael Wilson, and, when healthy, Marvin Harrison Jr.
However, 2026 may look far different. In the offseason, the Cardinals brought in Tyler Allgeier on a two-year, $12.5 million contract and drafted the top running back prospect in the class, Jeremiyah Love, with the third overall pick.
While there is no doubt McBride will remain a key piece of the offense, if the Cardinals even find middle-of-the-field production from their backfield, this pass-happy approach will decline significantly.
McBride can still provide value at his cost given his position, but there is far more risk than there was a year ago in selecting him at this ADP.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Yahoo ADP - 35.4
Breece Hall is currently dealing with a minor groin injury, but given that he remains on track to play in Week 1, that will not be the reason for him to be on this list. Instead, Hall's situation and inability to produce consistently are why managers should look elsewhere in drafts.
In 2025, Hall took a career-high 243 attempts for 1,065 yards and just four rushing touchdowns. Through the air, Hall caught 36 passes for another 350 yards and a touchdown. This production made Hall the RB19 in PPR scoring and tied for the RB20 in terms of FPTS/G.
However, Hall is now going off the board as the RB17 in current Yahoo drafts, above players with far more available offensive environments like D'Andre Swift.
Despite being the focal point of the Jets' offense, Hall struggled to produce on a weekly basis. He would only exceed the 21.0 PPR point mark in one game (32.9 PPR points in Week 8)and fell under the double-digit mark in eight games.
His massive 32.9-point effort greatly skewed his metrics. Removing this lone outlier, Hall would average under 12.0 PPR points per game.
While managers should target running backs who should see a high workload, it is important to target running backs who will earn high-value touches, especially near the red zone. Last fall, Hall took just 24 rushing attempts within the red zone, despite playing in all but one game (which placed him tied for 35th among running backs).
When looking at red-zone attempts with the five-yard line, Hall took just four carries.
While his ability to succeed as a pass catcher slightly raises his floor, his upside is quite low given the Jets' low projected offensive output (second-lowest implied point total in football).
As noted earlier, targeting Swift nearly one round later is a far better choice for managers, as he will likely not only see a similar workload but also have far more red-zone opportunities playing for the high-octane Chicago Bears offense.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP - 28.2
Rounding out this list will be another early-round running back. Even though Love is dealing with an injury like Hall, that was not the primary reason for him ot being included on this list. However, it further shows that Love can be a massive landmine if selected at his current price.
Love was the clear top-running back prospect in this year's class and was selected with the third overall pick by the Cardinals. In his final season at Notre Dame, Love was a Heisman finalist, rushing for 1,372 yards and punching in 18 scores with his legs. As a receiver, he caught another three touchdowns for 280 yards.
THROWBACK: Jeremiyah Love scores a 94 yard touchdown vs Boston College 👀 pic.twitter.com/JPfK78LICT
— Biased Notre Dame Fan (@CFBGuy999) August 18, 2026
However, his outlook before his recent injury was not overly strong, and this setback puts him at even greater risk of disappointing. Love will join Allgeier as his backup since he is signed to a two-year contract, suggesting the team does view him as a valuable piece of the offense. As noted earlier, given that the running attack was near the bottom, managers should expect both running backs to play a large role.
Before his injury, the coaching staff was easing Love into the offense and even listed him as the RB2 on the initial depth chart. While this likely would not have lasted long, the injury could have allowed Allgeier to get starting reps for much of the first half as the rookie slowly increased his workload.
In addition, as noted above for Hall, the Cardinals are projected to have one of the sport's worst defensive units in 2026, as shown by their 18.4 implied points per game, the lowest in the entire league.
While Love could eventually become a high-end RB2 by the second half, those taking him with a late second-round pick need him to consistently produce over the course of the season. There is far too much risk in selecting him at his current price tag.
Instead, managers should pivot to the top wide receivers on the board: DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave.
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