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Rob's must-draft fantasy football wide receivers and potential league-winners for 2026. His undervalued WRs and value picks with upside, including Chris Olave.
Upside. League-winner. Ceiling. These terms, especially in June and July, are thrown around far too often. Once August rolls around, however, and the pads go on, the term shrinks in its use. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be on the lookout for any player with this kind of potential.
Potential. That's another frequently used buzzword, and it's equally as important. Potential provides no guarantee. It doesn't factor in the likelihood that the targeted potential will ever be achieved.
This series will identify receivers who I believe have league-winning upside or those who can provide significant upside relative to their cost of acquisition. In the end, what it really means is to target these receivers in your drafts this season. As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
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A.J. Brown, New England Patriots
Many fantasy managers likely have a sour taste in their mouths after Brown's final season in Philadelphia, but was it really as bad as we remember? He finished as the WR11 with a 12.1 half-PPR PPG average despite the ineptitude from former offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and the fact that he dealt with some injuries of his own.
In his 15 active games last season, Brown was on pace for 137 targets, 88 receptions, 1,137 yards, and eight touchdowns. Now, that isn't what we've come to expect from Brown, but given the entire offensive struggles and the injuries to both Brown and the offensive line, you can start to look at that stat line through a different lens; instead of being disappointed, it becomes somewhat impressive.
From 2023-2025, Brown's per-game average equates to 142 targets, 95 catches, 1,337 yards, and eight touchdowns over 17 games. This is despite the Eagles averaging only 3,443 yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. The Patriots had 4,258 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.
Since 2023, Brown ranks seventh in yards and ninth in receiving touchdowns. This is despite the Eagles ranking 25th in passing yards and 14th in passing touchdowns over that same time. The Patriots were fourth in passing yards and fifth in touchdowns.
Consider, too, that the Patriots went 14-3 and only threw the ball 502 times. When the Patriots were winning or losing by one score, they passed the ball at a 60.8% clip, which was the ninth-highest in the league. A more competitive schedule will result in more pass attempts, which could even further the separation in yards and touchdowns between the Eagles and Patriots.
#Patriots QB Drake Maye says he will continue to target WR A.J. Brown in order to build their connection.
“Just give more chances to him… You see with the ball in his hands what he can do. Just finding more chances — intermediate, short, deep. Not shying away from it. I’m not… pic.twitter.com/oXt9VsttgW
— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) July 31, 2026
In Brown's first two seasons with Philly, he had 145 and 158 targets. Fantasy managers could be looking at that type of volume in New England with an offense that leaned more on the pass last season and will be in more competitive games, and while Jalen Hurts is a great quarterback, largely in part because of what he can do with his legs, Drake Maye is a great quarterback, largely in part because of what he can do with his arm.
Brown is on the verge of playing with the best passing quarterback he's ever had, and on the most pass-heavy offense he's ever played in. A career year could very well be upon him. Fantasy managers won't want to miss out.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave, through his four seasons in the NFL, has been unable to live up to expectations. That's due to poor quarterback play, below-average offensive output, and injuries. Fantasy managers started to get a taste of what he could do if these outside negative factors disappeared. Since Week 9, when Tyler Shough took over as the starting quarterback, Chris Olave ranked (35 target minimum, 58 total receivers):
- Ninth in Target Share (26.7%)
- Tenth in Target Rate (27.0%)
- Seventh in Targets Per Game (8.9)
- Third in Air Yards (1,000)
- Second in Air Yard Share (47.3%)
- 12th in Yards Per Route Run (2.48)
- Ninth in Yards Per Game (82.5)
- Eighth in First-Read Target Share (35.8%)
- 15th in First Downs Per Route Run (0.117)
- Third in Half-PPR PPG (15.8)
For Olave, it's not "just" Shough, even though, as you can see above, he's a big part of Olave's massive potential. The other piece of this equation is head coach and play-caller Kellen Moore. Last year, the Saints ranked first in plays per minute (2.2) and eighth in plays per game (63.2). This isn't anything new for Moore's offenses. He wants to play fast, and he has routinely done so.
For fantasy football purposes, more plays lead to more opportunities. Volume is king, after all, and that's true for every position. For the Saints, Moore helps create more volume by playing fast, leading to more plays. When you combine that with Shough's improved quarterback play, you get a situation where Olave is ready to truly break out.
From 2022-2024, Olave has gone through a number of different quarterbacks and coaches. In 2024, it was Dennis Allen until he was fired, and Darren Rizzi took over. He caught passes from Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, and even Jake Haener. In 2023, it was Allen and Carr, and in 2022, the Saints had Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston at the helm. A terrible head coach and a variety of mediocre-to-bad journeymen quarterbacks.
Despite this, Olave's per-game averages equated to 131 targets, 83 receptions, 1,118 yards, and four touchdowns. Pretty solid numbers, all things considered. Last year, he set career-highs in targets (156), catches (100), yards (1,163), and touchdowns (nine) just from one year with Moore and eight games with Shough, who was just a rookie.
Give him and Shough a full offseason practicing together and working within Moore's offense, and the potential is obvious.
Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Comments such as "this year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba" get thrown away too much. That much is true, and yet, if anyone is likely to do it or at least give the overall sentiment a run for its money, it's Emeka Egbuka. For Smith-Njigba to ascend to superstar status, a few things had to happen.
First and foremost, D.K. Metcalf had to go somewhere else. Egbuka got that same thing when Mike Evans left in free agency. Yes, Tyler Lockett left too, and Chris Godwin Jr. is still around, but don't let that fool you. Tampa had 558 pass attempts last year to Seattle's 481. That's 77 extra targets, which can help offset the fact that Godwin is still around.
We know y'all have been waiting for this one... THE Emeka catch 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/DLs0ax2O8l
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) May 28, 2026
Truthfully, I don't think Lockett would've stopped JSN's ascension anyway, and I hold the same sentiment about Godwin relative to Egbuka's potential breakout. Godwin is 30 years old and has dealt with a torn ACL and a broken/dislocated ankle that required multiple surgeries. While Godwin may still be a useful receiver - I suspect he will be - he's no longer talented enough to stop the newcomer's rise to fame.
One could even argue that Egbuka already broke out. Last year, from Weeks 1-5, Egbuka ranked (20 target minimum, 57 total receivers):
- Sixth in Air Yards
- 15th in Air Yard Share
- 18th in Targets Per Game
- 17th in Target Share
- Fourth in Yards Per Game
- Sixth in Yards Per Route Run
- Third in Yards Per Target
- Fourth in Yards Per Reception
- Seventh in Yards After Contact Per Reception
- Third in Half-PPR PPG
- Fourth in Fantasy Points Per Route Run
Unfortunately for Egbuka and fantasy managers, he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6. Baker Mayfield suffered a sprained MCL and PCL. He also had a bicep tendon strain and an AC injury to his throwing arm. The offensive line also sustained numerous injuries throughout the year, which impacted the protection and their running game.
From Weeks 1-5, Egbuka had an 86.8% catchable target rate. Over the course of the rest of the season, that number cratered to 53.9%. So, while his numbers drastically declined, we can easily point to this statistic as the primary reason why. Assuming Egbuka, Mayfield, and the offensive line are healthier in 2026, it's reasonable to expect Egbuka to produce more like he did early in the season.
The other component working in his favor is Mayfield's contract situation. Mayfield has always played better with a chip on his shoulder. He's an emotional player who can and will use the smallest slight as fuel. This offseason, Mayfield is on record saying he felt disrespected by the organization in contract negotiations.
He's now fully prepared to play 2026 on the last year of his existing deal and "make them pay." A highly motivated Mayfield could pay massive dividends to Egbuka's fantasy stock.
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2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players - Emeka Egbuka, A.J. Brown, Chris Olave. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
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