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Expert Week 2 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD prop. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
We’ve got one week in the books, and already the 2025 NFL season is reminding us why touchdown scorer props are one of the most entertaining markets out there. Week 1 gave us a mix of chalk-hitting (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Allen) and long shots (Quentin Johnston, Noah Fant) paying off. That is exactly the balance that makes Anytime TD betting so fun.
Now, with some real usage and matchup data in hand, we can sharpen our projections and find where the sportsbooks might be leaving value on the board for Week 2.
This column looks to pinpoint positive expected value using a model that factors in usage rates, red zone opportunities, and match-up tendencies. The end product is a probability projection that helps to highlight the touchdown edge. Results will be tracked week-over-week using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Picks
Javonte Williams, RB - Dallas Cowboys (-125)
Williams had an impressive debut for the Cowboys last week against Philadelphia, with two touchdowns on 15 carries, including 3 red zone carries. With a fumble from Miles Sanders and a healthy scratch designation for rookie Jaydon Blue, Williams’ goal-line role appears safe to start the season.
The Cowboys have another divisional matchup on the docket, this time against the Giants at home. New York gave up 220 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns last week, including a whopping 6.9 yards per attempt.
With an implied total of 26.5 points, Dallas is likely to have a handful of red zone visits, giving Williams a good chance to add to his already promising start to the season.
Zach Charbonnet, RB - Seattle Seahawks (+190)
After an extended look at Charbonnet as the lead back to end the 2024 season, it appears the third year rusher has begun to supplant veteran Kenneth Walker III as the team’s RB1 with both healthy to start the season. Last week, Charbonnet won the snap battle 30 to 21 and doubled the veteran in red zone touches (four to Walker III’s two). He finished with 12 rushes for 47 yards and the team’s lone rushing touchdown against the 49ers.
Despite recent results, Charbonnet still comes into Week 2 with longer anytime touchdown odds than Walker III at +190. The Seahawks are up against the Steelers in Week 2. Pittsburgh showed they are susceptible to the run, giving up 182 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground last week.
This may be the last week to take advantage before the market corrects itself on Charbonnet based on usage.
Zach Charbonnet led ALL RBs in rush success rate in week 1
Look away Kenneth Walker managers cause Charbs doesn't look like he's going away pic.twitter.com/ptIpFxVuml
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) September 8, 2025
A.J. Brown, WR - Philadelphia Eagles (+190)
Philadelphia’s star receiver put up a dud to start the season, catching just one pass for eight yards in last week’s opener against the Cowboys.
Brown will look to bounce back this week against the Chiefs, who underwhelmed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Kansas City gave up 318 passing yards in that game, including two touchdowns and 79 yards to X receiver Quentin Johnston. Brown primarily lines up in the X position for the Eagles and will aim to benefit similarly.
Philadelphia will also be without TE Dallas Goedert. In the 15 games Brown has played without Goedert in the lineup, he has scored 9 touchdowns (60%), a much better rate than the 34.5% implied odds DK Sportsbook has tagged for him.
Tyler Warren, TE - Indianapolis Colts (+220)
Warren is on his way to a stellar rookie campaign after a strong start to the season. The Colts’ first-round pick led his team with a 31% target share last week and added a rushing attempt.
He totaled 14.9 fantasy points in his debut and finished with the second-highest score among all TEs in FantasyLife’s Utilization Report. With a red zone target already under his belt along with a carry in his first game, Warren shows incredible promise to be a regular scorer for this Colts team.
Indianapolis faces off against a tough Denver defense on Sunday as 1.5-point underdogs. In what will likely be a tight game that will need four quarters from the Colts offense, look for Warren to lead the way again down the middle as Daniel Jones looks to avoid outside CB Patrick Surtain.
Hunter Henry, TE - New England Patriots (+260)
Henry looks to be a central target again for Drake Maye, tying for the team lead in targets last week with eight. The three-time team captain will be a beneficiary of the Patriots new pass-happy offense. Maye broke a career high in passing attempts last week with 46.
The Patriots are up against the Dolphins this week, the second-best matchup for opposing TEs according to PFF. Henry’s specific matchup ranks 13th of 77 eligible TEs in PFF matchup score. The Dolphins gave up eight targets and 10 catches to the Colts’ tight ends last week.
The veteran led New England in receiving in 2024. If his target share and snap counts stay where they are (23% and 93%, respectively), Henry has a good shot at repeating that feat, along with safely finishing with his first 100-target season. His usage and favorable matchup make him a great anytime touchdown bet.
Juwan Johnson, TE - New Orleans Saints (+300)
The Saints had an uninspiring open to their season in a 20-13 loss to the Cardinals in Week 1. TE Johnson was the most impressive piece of their operation, tallying 11 targets, eight receptions and 76 yards. This included two red zone targets, more than any of the team’s wideouts.
Johnson was a target machine and looks to play the part of a young quarterback’s safety blanket as well as any tight end. That helps his touchdown outlook with second year QB Spencer Rattler under center for the foreseeable future, and rookie QB Tyler Shough waiting in the wings.
The Saints welcome the 49ers to town on Sunday, one of six teams that did not give up a passing touchdown in Week 1. San Francisco limps into this game as three-point favorites. Their lengthy injury list should help keep the game competitive. Look for Johnson to get into the end zone for the first time this year.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Pick
Christian McCaffrey, RB - San Francisco 49ers (+300)
CMC meets our preferred first touchdown scorer formula to a tee this week as a high percentage workhorse with inflated anytime touchdown odds (-195).
In Week 1, McCaffrey led all players with 30.1 expected fantasy points per FantasyPoints data. He got there by leading all backs in carries with 22 and target share with 28%, while handling all four of the team's backfield touches inside the 10-yard line.
While he is a good bet to score any week (51 touchdowns in 30 games with the 49ers), his touchdown likelihood goes through the roof this week as one of the last men standing for San Francisco. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings are all likely to join Brandon Aiyuk as sidelined pieces of the offense this Sunday.
With QB Mac Jones under center, expect Kyle Shanahan to script an opening drive centered around McCaffrey on Sunday.
